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The Politics of Climate Change: How Data Is Being Manipulated To Fit A Theory

USincognito

a post by Alan Smithee
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I have a masters in earth science which includes meteorology, oceanography, geology, & astronomy.

If you say so.

The Himalayas have a lot to do with orienting jet streams.

There are four of them and many more influences on them. Of course jet streams effect weather more than climate, so I'm not sure why they have to do with global warming.

A gaseous compound does not weather make.

Someone with an MS in earth science would know that weather < climate and that a buildup of greenhouse gas does effect global climate.


The sun, at its mid-age, is at its highest peak of intensity.

The last three solar cycles have been some of the weakest on record and yet we still keep getting warmer.
 
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JBJoe

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I have a masters in earth science which includes meteorology, oceanography, geology, & astronomy.

Okay, so let's just run through a few checks to see if your underlying knowledge matches this claim.

The sun is the source of our climate & lo & behold we have an atmosphere & are just the right distance from the sun.

Okay, sounds like you're drifting towards making an Anthropic Principle argument, but I think we can all agree that the sun is the primary driver of the climate.


It sounds like you're trying to overwhelm with trivia here. "4 seasons" is an arbitrary convenience, it means the length of day light varies throughout the year and therefore so does the daily total insolation.


The above items you mentioned are unnecessary for cyclones or anticyclones. We see them on gas giants that are far too large to be affected by what little solid surface exists below the clouds. Also you're mixing in "weather" to a climate discussion which you should not do given your education in meteorology.

We are still coming out of the Ice Age because not every glacier has disappeared. The sun's energy varies with sunspots & power output. The distinct jet streams often distribute themselves sometimes at higher latitudes, sometimes lower.

It's a little difficult to take you seriously when you say "the sun's energy varies with sunspots & power output". It's very imprecise language and is technically wrong.

Sunlight that we receive at surface level is re-radiated back to space at night. It is the re-radiation that creates surface warmth during summer (infrared).

This again raises a bunch of red flags. It's the sort of thing I expect to hear from someone who only paid attention to half of a high school physics lecture. It's again very informal language but is more than just "technically" wrong. It's plain wrong. Why do deserts get colder at night than their less arid neighbors?

The politicians are trying to make an issue of something they cannot control. Man being arrogant (go back to the Galileo story) thinks it can.

More red flags. "The Galileo story" is a favorite of groups with a political objection to AGW, but not to those with scientific objection.

Now co2 can contribute to a greenhouse effect locally (visit a greenhouse in summer) but the little gas put out on the globe cannot change the whole picture.

Even more red flags. There is not nearly enough co2 in a regular greenhouse to account for its temperature. Because of the relatively high number of plants in a greenhouse, it generally has a somewhat lower co2 concentration than the outside atmosphere unless co2 is pumped in. This one isn't even an issue of imprecise language and it is just plain wrong. The temperature inside of a conventional greenhouse in summer has little to nothing to do with its co2 level.


I have no response to unsubstantiated rantings of conspiracy theory.


Urban heat island effects are fairly well understood as to their cause and effect. Trees won't help much though, unless they displace the things causing the problem in the first place. Given your credentials, you should really know better.

All energy actions lead to entropy. What this means is energy is never 100% efficient. It goes off to waste--heat waste.

Yes, but this is meaningless in context.

Carbon dioxide is not a pollutant; it's an emission which in turn is used by algae, fungi, plants, crops, trees. This is how we make our food.

Red flags again. Being an emission does not mean it isn't a pollutant. The fact that some things can make use it is immaterial. Look up the definition of "pollutant"; given your credentials, you should know better.


MAJOR red flags - appeal to anthropic principle. We know that oxygen was significantly higher in the past which is one reason fauna back then were generally much larger than they are now.

The nitrogen accrual came earth's early years when bacteria began to fix nitrogen. Now certainly we'd all like a clean earth but you won't get to 100%.

Red flags here: nitrogen fixing refers to taking nitrogen out of the atmosphere. Nitrogen is a relatively inert gas so its accumulation in the atmosphere is an inevitability. Once it's molecular nitrogen it takes a fair bit of energy to break those bonds. Some things can do it, but it's expensive.

CO2 does not create low pressure system such as a tornado; it does not create an Alberta clipper; it does not make a dust storm or cirrus clouds.

Nobody involved in climate research claims that it does. The claim is that CO2 is more opaque at infrared wavelengths and so the energy radiating away from the planet is less. If the energy isn't leaving, it must be staying and that means things get warmer.

The sun is roughly 50% thru it's life cycle as a not so big star.

The sun is an average-sized star.

As it ages, it will begin going thru consecutive shells of hydrogen & helium burning. This will eventually increase its diameter. It will become a red giant & albeit cool off (red is cool), it will absorb the entire solar system & we will all perish.

More red flags - yellow dwarfs of 1 solar mass are predicted to expand to roughly 2 AU at their peak. So, it might reach as far as Mars. Neptune, the most distant "planet", has a mean orbital distance of roughly 30 AU.

At some point it will fuse thru the next elements in the periodic table until it gets to iron. The cost of burning iron is where it ends-it's too great a cost-the sun will blow up as a nova & become a tinier white hot dwarf.

Yet more red flags... Stars of 1 solar mass do not possess enough gravity to overcome the electron degeneracy pressure. They do not fuse anything but hydrogen in appreciable amounts until the very end - after their red giant phase - when they have a "helium flash" what will blow the outer gas layers out into space and form a ring-like "planetary" nebula. But that's it. Also, when a star does "blow up" it's called a "supernova" not "nova". "Nova" is what happens after it is a white dwarf if it is in a binary system, which our sun is not. Also, supernovae do not become white dwarfs, they become neutron stars.

That is the end. Stardust we are born & to stardust we return.

The end indeed. It just doesn't sound like you know this subject very well.
 
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KCfromNC

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I have a degree in math from Rutgers U., a masters in math from Central CT SU, & a masters in earth science, minor geology from Central CT SU.
Any peer-reviewed publications in the field of AGW, or are you just an interested amateur like the rest of the posters in this thread?
 
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brinny

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Thank you.
 
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rjs330

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Glad to have you on board. It's nice to have someone here with some knowledge other than those parroting the climate catastrophic man made nonsense.
 
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USincognito

a post by Alan Smithee
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Glad to have you on board. It's nice to have someone here with some knowledge other than those parroting the climate catastrophic man made nonsense.
Oh the irony.
 
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FenderTL5

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I remember what the air and water in major cities and industrial areas were like in the late 60s and early 70s.

Whether you agree with Global Warming or not, that history alone should be reason enough to pursue clean energy as opposed to deregulation and promoting more use of fossil fuels. IMHO, YMMV.
 
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amanuensis63

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Given that this is my educational field I thought I'd chime in


Paragraph breaks are your friend.

. Ok so maybe the average temp has gone up 1 degree. But this is how climate works.

And 1 deg change in average global temperature is extreme. It is not to be passed off as nothing. Yes, climate has changed in the past, and often for known reasons. Now we have a significant rise in temperature that correlates best with human activity. In fact, among the available forcings human activity explains the data the best.

This is how statistics and modeling work. If this is your area of education then you will likely need to learn these things.

Carbon dioxide is a gas exhaled by living things, including plants at night (inhaled by them in daytime).

Again, since this is your area of study you must also know that when excess CO2 goes into the atmosphere it is much harder to get it to come back out of the atmosphere. This is called the carbon cycle. Yes animals and plants exchange CO2 and O2 with the atmosphere but if you were to suddenly, say, pump a huge excess of CO2 into the atmosphere it would tend to accumulate and do what CO2 is known to do (absorb in the IR part of the spectrum) and trap heat in the atmosphere.

We are still coming out of the Ice Age

Actually you are not really correct. We should be starting into the next ice age because of how the Milankovich Cycle works. But ironically enough we are getting warmer instead of colder.

because not every glacier has disappeared.

I have never heard that point made before. I don't believe it is accurate. Glaciers can exist even at peak interglacials. The existence of glaciers in mountains and even large landmasses like Greenland does not mean you are not in an interglacial.

The politicians are trying to make an issue of something they cannot control.

Again, if this is your area of study then you certainly know that it was a SCIENTIST (Roger Revelle) who approached the government back in the 50's and 60's to get the government alerted.

Now co2 can contribute to a greenhouse effect locally (visit a greenhouse in summer)

If you are actually interested in this topic you will surely know that an actual greenhouse is not a particularly technically solid comparison to the "Greenhouse Effect". First off: the literal greenhouse holds heat in due to the GLASS. In the greenhouse effect the CO2 holds the heat in but ultimately it re-radiates back out into space just at higher and higher elevations.

but the little gas put out on the globe cannot change the whole picture.

You will have to get over this "incredulity due to small numbers" fallacy. There are many things which occur at low levels but have a large effect.

The biggest sink for CO2 is the ocean & lakes

-sigh- And if this is your area of education you know that when CO2 enters the ocean it is likely simply exchanging with another CO2 molecule.

I might also suggest you read up on the Revelle Factor.
 
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amanuensis63

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Glad to have you on board. It's nice to have someone here with some knowledge other than those parroting the climate catastrophic man made nonsense.

Based on what I read in the giant paragraph mash-up it looked to me like the poster had only a moderate understanding of the topic and was largely incorrect in the conclusions they drew from their incomplete knowledge.
 
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iluvatar5150

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I have a degree in math from Rutgers U., a masters in math from Central CT SU, & a masters in earth science, minor geology from Central CT SU.

Interesting. If I may ask, how long ago did you receive your masters in Earth Science from Central CT State? I ask, because they no longer offer that (or any kind of non-biological science) as a Masters program. It's now only offered at the undergraduate level.


Graduate Studies - Programs
Degree Programs
 
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amanuensis63

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I have a degree in math from Rutgers U., a masters in math from Central CT SU, & a masters in earth science, minor geology from Central CT SU.

Very good, so we have something to work with.

In your geology classes, like Historical Geology, surely you learned about Milankovich Cycles and the fact that we should, indeed, be heading into the next ice age. But clearly we aren't. The temperatures are not falling in any way. In fact rising.

And your comments about CO2 also indicate that you may have not accounted for the carbon cycle. You surely have studied that in your geology classes, if not as extensively as in a chemistry or geochemistry class.
 
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Cearbhall

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If it's not real and we do something about it...nothing bad happens.
I'll take that one step further. No one can reasonably argue that it's not happening at all. The only debate that anyone who knows what they're talking about is having is to what degree it's occurring, how quickly it's accelerating, etc. So there's really no reason not to do something about it.
 
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amanuensis63

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I too am somewhat confused by the "masters in earth science, minor in geology". The universities that I am most familiar with usually just renamed their geology departments "earth science" (being as that is common synonym). But also I am sort of fascinated by a "minor" in a directly related field at the masters level.

I would be interested in understanding the poster's actual geologic understanding of this topic since the earlier post didn't really belie any detailed understanding.
 
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rjs330

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I don't think anyone want dirty air or water. I know I don't. Pursuing clean energy is not a problem for me. But what we need is a smooth transition not a hammer where you cause such destruction in the fossil fuels that it drives up the cost and causes people hardship. There is another way. Develope a reasonable clean energy that is affordable and people will move to it.
I'd have no problem having a solar house. But the cost is prohibitive.
 
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amanuensis63

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The market will have difficulty moving away from fossil fuels since fossil fuels are what our energy systems are built around. Right now the EROEI for most fossil fuels means they are relatively cheap to procure.

I'd have no problem having a solar house. But the cost is prohibitive.

Couple problems there:

1. The prices are dropping rather dramatically on solar panels. We bought 8 years ago in California and we just recently moved to another state. We are looking at solar here and the prices are amazingly lower than they were.

2. Conservative groups like ALEC have been working to undercut the "net metering" systems which make installing solar good for home owners. They effectively collapsed the Nevada solar industry when they gutted Net Metering. In Nevada.

The fossil fuel industries really don't want to let go of their control.

At some point we have to wrest the control from them.

And that isn't even mentioning the fact that current fossil fuel costs don't factor in the damage fossil fuels do. So in a sense there's a giant subsidy that fossil fuels get already. We aren't paying for the real cost of fossil fuels.
 
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iluvatar5150

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Who's driving up the cost of fossil fuels? Oil prices are fairly low, and coal is being undercut by natural gas.

Additionally, fossil fuels cause pollution, the costs of which are (typically) not accounted for in the price of the fuel. It is wholly appropriate, and in fact necessary for the market to function efficiently, for the government to tack on some kind of surcharge to a product to ensure that its sell price accounts for all of its costs.
 
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DaisyDay

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Well, there is the Post-Baccalaureate Program:
Science for Secondary Education Program prepares students for Secondary teacher certification in Science Education: Chemistry, Earth Sciences, General Science and Physics.

So maybe that's the course she 's taking completed?
 
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rjs330

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I wasnt just talking about fossil fuels. I was talking about energy in general. Remember what Obama said? Energy prices would necessarily skyrocket.

In order to make people get into more clean energy they have to do one of two things. To make clean energy competitive they have to drive up the cost of other energy or drive down the cost of clean energy. And we see from Obama's statement what they generally prefer to do.
 
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USincognito

a post by Alan Smithee
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I wasnt just talking about fossil fuels. I was talking about energy in general. Remember what Obama said? Energy prices would necessarily skyrocket.

And yet, until the election oil and gasoline prices had been historically cheap when adjusted for inflation. And utility bills haven't gone up either.


How does this effect the fact that 9 of the 10 hottest years have occurred since 2000 and the outlier is 1998?
 
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