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The Hitchhiker’s Guide to failing to elect a House speaker quickly
On the first day of the new Congress, representatives will vote for the speaker of the House as Mike Johnson fights to keep the job.
The problem has been percolating for a while.
It’s been subterranean. Lurking underneath the surface. Not necessarily perceptible.
Except to those who follow Congress closely.
But the issue has gurgled to the top since the House stumbled badly trying to avert a government shutdown last week.
It was long likely that House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., might face a problem winning the speaker’s gavel immediately when the new Congress convenes at noon ET on Jan. 3. Congressional experts knew that Johnson could be in trouble once the contours of the reed-thin House majority came into focus weeks after the November election. This could blossom into a full-blown crisis for Johnson – and House Republicans –when the speaker’s vote commences a little after 1 p.m. ET next Friday.
Johnson emerges bruised from last week’s government funding donnybrook. Anywhere from four to 10 Republicans could oppose Johnson in the speaker’s race.
Here’s the math:
The House clocks in at 434 members with one vacancy. That’s thanks to former Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla. He resigned his position for this Congress a few weeks ago. Even though Gaetz won re-election in November, his resignation letter – read on the floor of the House – signaled he did not plan to serve in the new Congress, which begins in January.
This is the breakdown when the Congress starts: 219 Republicans to 214 Democrats.
Trump’s pick for national security adviser, Rep. Michael Waltz, R-Fla., remains in the House for now. So does Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y. Trump tapped her to serve as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. That’s pending Senate confirmation – perhaps in late January or early February. Once Waltz and Stefanik resign, the GOP majority dwindles to 217-214.
But the speaker’s election on Jan. 3 poses a special challenge. Here’s the bar for Johnson – or anyone else: The speaker of the House must win an outright majority of all members casting ballots for someone by name. In other words, the person with the most votes does not win. That’s what happened repeatedly to former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., when he routinely outpolled House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., for speaker to begin this Congress in January 2023. But it took days for McCarthy to cross the proper threshold.