The election prediction challenge

[chaim]

As a break from the petty mudslinging and rumor milling, lets see who knows how to read the electorate!

The purpose of this thread is to pick the following:

• The winner of the election
• The popular vote percentages
• The electoral college votes
• Who wins which battle ground states.

Please, NO partisan bickering and name calling. Give your predicition and maybe a few words as to how you arrived at it.

For reference, realclearpolitics list the following states as being 'in play':

• Leaning Obama (52)CO (9)NM (5)NV (5)OH (20)VA (13)
• Toss Up (70)FL (27)IN (11)MO (11)MT (3)NC (15)ND (3)
• Leaning McCain (30)AZ (10)GA (15)WV (5)

 

[chaim]

Well I will get it going with my best guess.
I think Obama will win
The popular vote will go 52% / 46% Obama / McCain
Obama will do well in the electoral college 375 / 163 Obama to McCain

The key to the battleground states is voter turnout. While polling puts Obama ahead in almost all the toss up states, if either party doesn't get the turnout the polls mean nothing. That being said, based on polling of enthusiasm for candidates and the early polling numbers, turnout is going to be huge, particularly amongst democrats. As a result almost all the tossup states will go to Obama:

Obama: CO, NM, NV, OH, VA, FL, IN, MO, NC
McCain: Az, GA, WV, ND, MT

Mccain will likely still take ND and MT due to lower african american populations and less urban centers. The candidates have been addressing 'rural' issues less this year which could lead to a lower turnout in these states.

 

[kermit]

Popular vote: 52% Obama / 48% McCain
Electoral: 342 Obama / 196 McCain

I think that Obama will win most current toss ups. McCain will win Florida and NC and will take Virginia from Obama.