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Discussion and Debate
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STOP EXTREME GUN CONTROL BILL H.R. 127
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<blockquote data-quote="tall73" data-source="post: 75735671" data-attributes="member: 125574"><p>Here is the historical data. We see a similar trend in the USA and UK, with spikes in the early 90's with then decreasing violence.</p><p></p><p>The UK is per million rather than 100k.</p><p></p><p>Perhaps the largest gun measure in the UK went through in 1997, but the homicide rate continued to go up for a while, then back down. It didn't go much below 1997 levels and then recently started going back up again in the last couple years.</p><p></p><p>So overall the impact on homicides was not much. If anything they went up for a while.</p><p></p><p><img src="https://www.thetrace.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/ucr-national-2017-1280x0-c-default.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" /></p><p></p><p><img src="https://www.christianforums.com/data/attachment-files/2021/02/343031_168cf148c075600a8dacd3fbd931ea01.PNG" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" /></p><p></p><p></p><p>There are some confounding factors.</p><p></p><p>The UK goes by when the crime was officially put on the books. So the 2003 spike is not totally accurate. That includes data from a serial killer who's crimes were all put on the books that year but occurred over a span of years.</p><p></p><p>From the office of statistics:</p><p><a href="http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/search/result/?q=homicide+&include=&exclude=&site=&year=2017" target="_blank">Results for "homicide " | Search - UK Government Web Archive</a></p><p>(download first result titled "homicide")</p><p></p><p><span style="color: #006633">Homicide Index data are based on the year when the offence was recorded as a crime, not when the offence took place or when the case was heard in court. While in the vast majority of cases the offence will be recorded in the same year as it took place, this is not always the case. Caution is therefore needed when looking at longerterm homicide trend figures. For example, the 172 homicides attributed to Dr Harold Shipman as a result of Dame Janet Smith’s inquiry took place over a long period of time but were all recorded by the police during the year ending March 2003.</span></p><p></p><p>Moreover they indicate that homicide data waits for cases to pass through the judicial system:</p><p><span style="color: #006600"></span></p><p><span style="color: #006600">The circumstances surrounding a homicide may be complex and it can take time for cases to pass through the criminal justice system (CJS). Due to this, the percentage of homicides recorded in the year ending March 2016 (and, to a lesser extent, those recorded in earlier years) that have concluded at Crown Court is likely to show an increase when the next figures from the Homicide Index are published in 12 months’ time. Conversely, the proportion of cases without suspects or with court proceedings pending is expected to decrease as police complete more investigations and as cases pass through the CJS (see What do we know about suspects section for further details).</span></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="tall73, post: 75735671, member: 125574"] Here is the historical data. We see a similar trend in the USA and UK, with spikes in the early 90's with then decreasing violence. The UK is per million rather than 100k. Perhaps the largest gun measure in the UK went through in 1997, but the homicide rate continued to go up for a while, then back down. It didn't go much below 1997 levels and then recently started going back up again in the last couple years. So overall the impact on homicides was not much. If anything they went up for a while. [IMG]https://www.christianforums.com/proxy.php?image=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thetrace.org%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2018%2F04%2Fucr-national-2017-1280x0-c-default.png&hash=3c146538152d5ccbfbfdca40363d77ba[/IMG] [IMG]https://www.christianforums.com/data/attachment-files/2021/02/343031_168cf148c075600a8dacd3fbd931ea01.PNG[/IMG] There are some confounding factors. The UK goes by when the crime was officially put on the books. So the 2003 spike is not totally accurate. That includes data from a serial killer who's crimes were all put on the books that year but occurred over a span of years. From the office of statistics: [URL='http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/search/result/?q=homicide+&include=&exclude=&site=&year=2017']Results for "homicide " | Search - UK Government Web Archive[/URL] (download first result titled "homicide") [COLOR=#006633]Homicide Index data are based on the year when the offence was recorded as a crime, not when the offence took place or when the case was heard in court. While in the vast majority of cases the offence will be recorded in the same year as it took place, this is not always the case. Caution is therefore needed when looking at longerterm homicide trend figures. For example, the 172 homicides attributed to Dr Harold Shipman as a result of Dame Janet Smith’s inquiry took place over a long period of time but were all recorded by the police during the year ending March 2003.[/COLOR] Moreover they indicate that homicide data waits for cases to pass through the judicial system: [COLOR=#006600] The circumstances surrounding a homicide may be complex and it can take time for cases to pass through the criminal justice system (CJS). Due to this, the percentage of homicides recorded in the year ending March 2016 (and, to a lesser extent, those recorded in earlier years) that have concluded at Crown Court is likely to show an increase when the next figures from the Homicide Index are published in 12 months’ time. Conversely, the proportion of cases without suspects or with court proceedings pending is expected to decrease as police complete more investigations and as cases pass through the CJS (see What do we know about suspects section for further details).[/COLOR] [/QUOTE]
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