"Robert F. Kennedy Jr. moves closer to dropping out and endorsing Trump"

[Oompa Loompa]

"Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced that he will address the nation about the path forward for his campaign Friday in Arizona, amid advanced discussions with former president Donald Trump and his campaign team about dropping out of the race and endorsing the Republican nominee, according to multiple people familiar with the conversations."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/08/21/robert-f-kennedy-jr-moves-closer-trump-endorsement/

What would this mean for the election? Could enough RFK supports tilt the scales in favor of Trump?

 

[dzheremi]

He probably just wants a cabinet position if Trump wins.

And you'd think if he had enough support to sway the election, he wouldn't drop out. Remember Perot in 1992? He had dropped out and then decided to come back, and still somehow ended up with 15% of the vote!

 

[Yeshua HaDerekh]

"Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced that he will address the nation about the path forward for his campaign Friday in Arizona, amid advanced discussions with former president Donald Trump and his campaign team about dropping out of the race and endorsing the Republican nominee, according to multiple people familiar with the conversations."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/08/21/robert-f-kennedy-jr-moves-closer-trump-endorsement/

What would this mean for the election? Could enough RFK supports tilt the scales in favor of Trump?

I hope so! He is a very smart guy! The Dems sure screwed him...

 

[mourningdove~]

.

I hope so! He is a very smart guy! The Dems sure screwed him...

Yes. The Dems running things clearly do not like him at all ...

 

[ThatRobGuy]

What would this mean for the election? Could enough RFK supports tilt the scales in favor of Trump?

It's still tough to call in terms of the impact. The polling data on "who RFK steals more votes from" has gone back and forth at least 6 times in the last 6 months.

While there's the potential for the right-leaning RFK supporters to vote for Trump if RFK endorses him...there's also the potential for the scenario of the slightly left of center, never-Trumpers, and certain key demographic RFK supporters defaulting back to Democrats if RFK is no longer an option.

For instance:

The Latino/Hispanic voter bloc is the most "pro-RFK" bloc at the moment (some estimates showing as high as 24% supporting him over the other two candidates)
The 18-24 voter bloc is the 2nd biggest supporter of RFK (with 18% of the people in that group supporting him)

If RFK were to drop out... and you were a betting man, knowing what we know about the typical voting patterns of those two demographics when a 3rd party isn't in the mix, who would you bet on as far as which party the majority of those two groups would rollover to in RFK's absence?

It'd be a pretty big gamble to roll the dice and hope that RFK pulls most of that support over to Trump's side with him. I don't see it being likely. I think it's more likely that those Hispanic and 18-24 voters that RFK currently has supporting him, would likely be somewhere in the neighborhood of a 65/35 split in the Democrats' favor if RFK drops out.

 

[wing2000]

What would this mean for the election? Could enough RFK supports tilt the scales in favor of Trump?

I thought Kennedy's appeal was he's not part of either "corrupt political party"? Now, he's going to join party's campaign? Seems like that won't fly with his anti-establishment voters. IMO, they either won't vote or vote with a write in....

 

[Aldebaran]

.


Yes. The Dems running things clearly do not like him at all ...

The dems "running things clearly" wouldn't have totally rejected Harris in 2019, then suddenly fall in love with her in 2024 after voting overwhelmingly for Biden in 2024 to be their nominee, and then suddenly dumping him after he had a bad debate, only to embrace the one they dumped in 2019---and then hope nobody notices.

 

[BPPLEE]

He probably just wants a cabinet position if Trump wins.

And you'd think if he had enough support to sway the election, he wouldn't drop out. Remember Perot in 1992? He had dropped out and then decided to come back, and still somehow ended up with 15% of the vote!

Perot was just there to hurt Bush. When it looked like he would win he bowed out.
He got back in when he could still pull enough votes to keep Bush from winning

 

[RoBo1988]

RFK Jr. Tears Media, Democrat Party To Pieces In Scathing Speech; Endorses Trump

Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. eviscerated the legacy media and Democrat Party in a scathing speech on Friday where he explained why he was suspending his campaign and endorsing Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump. Kennedy made the remarks during a press...

www.dailywire.com

"the (Democrat )party has morphed into the party of “war, censorship, corruption, big pharma, big tech, big AG, and big money,” adding that he left the party “when it abandoned democracy by canceling the primary” to hide the cognitive decline of President Joe Biden."

 

[The IbanezerScrooge]

 

[ThatRobGuy]

View attachment 353793

In all honesty, he probably offers Trump more strategic advantages than Vance...

Primary one being, people outside of the rust belt have actually heard of him

 

[iluvatar5150]

In all honesty, he probably offers Trump more strategic advantages than Vance...

Primary one being, people outside of the rust belt have actually heard of him

I’d wager that, prior to covid, JD Vance was way more well known among the overeducated urban set than Kennedy was. Hillbilly Elegy got loads of press, whereas Kennedy is just an anti-vax crank.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

I’d wager that, prior to covid, JD Vance was way more well known among the overeducated urban set than Kennedy was. Hillbilly Elegy got loads of press, whereas Kennedy is just an anti-vax crank.

JD Vance is a relative political unknown. He's been asked to help Donald Trump avenge his 2020 loss

Ohio Sen. JD Vance is supposed to help Donald Trump win the Midwest this fall. But he is barely known among many Republicans.

apnews.com

Just 13% of registered voters said they had a favorable opinion of Vance with 20% an unfavorable one, according to a CNN poll conducted in late June. The majority said they had never heard of him or had no opinion.

But another advantage is that RFK does surprisingly well with Latino/Hispanic voters... If they follow him over to Trump, that may allow Trump to over-perform more with that demographic than he's already doing.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Is Polling Surprisingly Well Among Latino Voters

Pollsters attribute the independent candidate’s strength to significant name recognition and to frustration with the top two contenders.

www.nytimes.com

RFK Jr. most popular among Republican, Hispanic voters: Poll

Kennedy is polling behind Biden and Trump, but he’s garnered support from about 33% of voters, according to a NewsNation/Decision Desk HQ poll.

www.newsnationnow.com

It would appear he also does pretty well with young voters...


The x Factor is whether or not they would follow him over to Trump ...or revert back to their typical voting patterns of 65/35 in favor of the Democrats.