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Released Illegal Commits Murder
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<blockquote data-quote="iluvatar5150" data-source="post: 73401040" data-attributes="member: 313046"><p>I understand perfectly well. The problem is that you really don't understand how the math works, and you haven't established that illegals are any more likely than legals to commit non-immigration crimes, so your examples wind up either being built on faulty assumptions or just not making your case at all.</p><p></p><p>To make this a little clearer, let's take 3 different scenarios: A, B, and C.</p><p></p><p>In each scenario, we have 500 Legals (legal immigrants or natural born, I don't care) and 500 Illegals for a total of 1000 people. And in each scenario, we have 150 crimes, for a 15% crime rate. </p><p></p><p>In Scenario A, Legals and Illegals are equally as likely to commit crimes.</p><p>In Scenario B, Legals are 1/2 as likely as Illegals to commit crimes.</p><p>In Scenario C, Legals are 2x as likely as Illegals to commit crimes.</p><p></p><p>(Numbers all chosen to make the math easy)</p><p></p><p>In Scenario A, each group commits 75 crimes and has a 15% crime rate within their respective communities.</p><p>In Scenario B, Legals commit 50 crimes (10% crime rate among Legals) and Illegals commit 100 crimes (20% rate among Illegals).</p><p>In Scenario C, the numbers are reversed from B: Legals commit 100 crimes (20% rate) while Illegals commit 50 crimes (10% crime rate).</p><p></p><p>Now ICE rolls in and starts deporting Illegals. Let's say that, in each case, they deport half (i.e. 250) of the Illegals, and that the half they deport is representative of the whole (i.e. the crime rate among the deported half is the same as it is among the half that is not deported).</p><p></p><p>In Scenario A, those 250 Illegals have a 15% crime rate, thus, they account for 37.5 of the 150 crimes. Removing those 250 Illegals would drop the total population to 750 and the total number of crimes to 112.5. However, the crime rate stays at 15% (112.5 / 750 == 15%). IOW, the total number of crimes drops, but your likelihood of being victimized by any random person on the street has gone unchanged.</p><p></p><p>In Scenario B, those 250 Illegals have a 20% crime rate, thus, they account for 50 of the 150 crimes. Removing those 250 Illegals would drop the total population to 750 and the total number of crimes to 100. In this case, the crime rate drops to 13.3% (100 / 750 == 13.3%). IOW, the total number of crimes drops, AND your likelihood of being victimized by any random person on the street has dropped as well. This is because you deported folks from a group statistically more likely to commit crime than the average person.</p><p></p><p>In Scenario C, those 250 Illegals have a 10% crime rate, thus, they account for 25 of the 150 crimes. Removing those 250 Illegals would drop the total population to 750 and the total number of crimes to 125. However, in this case, the crime rate GOES UP to 16.67% (125 / 750 == 16.67%). IOW, while the total number of crimes drops, your likelihood of being victimized by any random person on the street has increased because you deported people from a group statistically less likely to commit crime than the average person.</p><p></p><p>If you're truly worried about crime and you're interested in using deportations as a means to achieve that end, then you ought to first figure out which of these above scenarios most closely matches reality. Otherwise, you're liable to spend a lot of effort not being effective. I've not seen anything to suggest that illegals are any more dangerous than the average legal resident, and I've seen some (albeit not definitive) suggestions that they are somewhat less dangerous.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="iluvatar5150, post: 73401040, member: 313046"] I understand perfectly well. The problem is that you really don't understand how the math works, and you haven't established that illegals are any more likely than legals to commit non-immigration crimes, so your examples wind up either being built on faulty assumptions or just not making your case at all. To make this a little clearer, let's take 3 different scenarios: A, B, and C. In each scenario, we have 500 Legals (legal immigrants or natural born, I don't care) and 500 Illegals for a total of 1000 people. And in each scenario, we have 150 crimes, for a 15% crime rate. In Scenario A, Legals and Illegals are equally as likely to commit crimes. In Scenario B, Legals are 1/2 as likely as Illegals to commit crimes. In Scenario C, Legals are 2x as likely as Illegals to commit crimes. (Numbers all chosen to make the math easy) In Scenario A, each group commits 75 crimes and has a 15% crime rate within their respective communities. In Scenario B, Legals commit 50 crimes (10% crime rate among Legals) and Illegals commit 100 crimes (20% rate among Illegals). In Scenario C, the numbers are reversed from B: Legals commit 100 crimes (20% rate) while Illegals commit 50 crimes (10% crime rate). Now ICE rolls in and starts deporting Illegals. Let's say that, in each case, they deport half (i.e. 250) of the Illegals, and that the half they deport is representative of the whole (i.e. the crime rate among the deported half is the same as it is among the half that is not deported). In Scenario A, those 250 Illegals have a 15% crime rate, thus, they account for 37.5 of the 150 crimes. Removing those 250 Illegals would drop the total population to 750 and the total number of crimes to 112.5. However, the crime rate stays at 15% (112.5 / 750 == 15%). IOW, the total number of crimes drops, but your likelihood of being victimized by any random person on the street has gone unchanged. In Scenario B, those 250 Illegals have a 20% crime rate, thus, they account for 50 of the 150 crimes. Removing those 250 Illegals would drop the total population to 750 and the total number of crimes to 100. In this case, the crime rate drops to 13.3% (100 / 750 == 13.3%). IOW, the total number of crimes drops, AND your likelihood of being victimized by any random person on the street has dropped as well. This is because you deported folks from a group statistically more likely to commit crime than the average person. In Scenario C, those 250 Illegals have a 10% crime rate, thus, they account for 25 of the 150 crimes. Removing those 250 Illegals would drop the total population to 750 and the total number of crimes to 125. However, in this case, the crime rate GOES UP to 16.67% (125 / 750 == 16.67%). IOW, while the total number of crimes drops, your likelihood of being victimized by any random person on the street has increased because you deported people from a group statistically less likely to commit crime than the average person. If you're truly worried about crime and you're interested in using deportations as a means to achieve that end, then you ought to first figure out which of these above scenarios most closely matches reality. Otherwise, you're liable to spend a lot of effort not being effective. I've not seen anything to suggest that illegals are any more dangerous than the average legal resident, and I've seen some (albeit not definitive) suggestions that they are somewhat less dangerous. [/QUOTE]
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