Putin in Alaska

Larniavc said:

Putin will be in Alaska soon and there are a few things I wonder.

Putin is wanted for war crimes by the ICC. Will he be arrested when he lands in America?

Click to expand...

Both the USA and Russia are not signatories to the ICC. Thus, the USA can legally ignore the order to arrest Putin. There was a signatory nation, Mongolia that Putin visited and they should have arrested him. Ukraine situation: ICC Pre-Trial Chamber II finds that Mongolia failed to cooperate in the arrest and surrender of Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin and refers the matter to the Assembly of States Parties

Larniavc said:

Will Trump be able to get Russia to retreat to its pre invasion borders?

Click to expand...

Absolutely not unless the USA and NATO want to fight for it or Ukraine can win on their own. Russia is as we speak having an offensive success. Putin too I believe is asking for some territory that they currently8 do not possess.

Larniavc said:

Will Trump throw his hands and give up if Russia will not retreat to its pre invasion borders?

Click to expand...

I think Trump is willing to give Russia some land to win the war. How much this becomes is ultimately up to Ukraine. I doubt Trump is too much concerned with the terms of peace, as he is to getting to a peace. Given Russia is having some success and Ukraine is tiring, the question becomes how much are they going to be willing to give up. Plus, there is a trust problem. Ukraine thinks that Putin will push forward even after a deal is made. It might wait for Trump to be out of office but they likely will be persistent in the future to take more land from not only Ukraine but possibly other nations including NATO members.

Larniavc said:

Will Trump carry out his threats of sanctions if Russia will not retreat to its pre invasion borders?

Click to expand...

Trump mainly through his wife, is seeing a pattern of Russia aggression following peace talks. So Trump is more discerning and less trusting than before. He will try to get them to deal and is ramping up the pressure by addressing the Russian oil being sold to nations like India. I don't think Trump sees the pre-invasion borders as a sticking point. I think too that Ukraine is willing to give up some land. The big question is how much? If Russia makes it too costly Ukraine will not deal.

I can't say my responses are perfect but I do try to keep up on this conflict. It is hard to know too because Trump does change over time. I think that Putin has irritated Trump now so it will be interesting to see how things will go.

American officials scrambling this weekend to identify and lock down a venue for Friday's summit between President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart quickly discovered a major snag: summertime is peak tourist season in Alaska, and options both available and equipped to host the two world leaders were severely limited.

... only Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, on the northern edge of the city, would meet the security requirements for the historic meeting, though the White House had hoped to avoid the optics of hosting the Russian leader and his entourage on a US military installation.

That is where the two men will meet Friday, two White House officials said.

Putin entourage:

Larniavc said:

Putin will be in Alaska soon and there are a few things I wonder.

Putin is wanted for war crimes by the ICC. Will he be arrested when he lands in America?

Will Trump be able to get Russia to retreat to its pre invasion borders?

Will Trump throw his hands and give up if Russia will not retreat to its pre invasion borders?

Will Trump carry out his threats of sanctions if Russia will not retreat to its pre invasion borders?

Click to expand...

Neither Ukraine or Russia are ready to compromise on their positions so the talks will be difficult. Ultimately the concession of pro Russian areas like Donbas and Crimea should be on the table.

Peace needs to secure Ukraines borders against future expansionary plans. The demilitarisation of Ukraine demand by Putin and his ban on NATO membership would simply allow a new offensive in a few years time. Putins desire to restore the old Soviet/Imperial boundaries are clear as is the desire of the people in the target lands to be free of Russian control.

Continued conflict is good for Europe as it forces it to be more responsible and independent on defence and strategic supplies. This cultural change would probably be arrested by peace. It is also forcing a change to renewables that will give Europe an advantage in the long run though this is costly in the short term.

Russian leverage in these talks comes from the other things it can offer Trump that have nothing to do with the war e.g. in the Artic.

Trump can seriously damage Russia by closing down Indian and Chinese support with tariffs but India and China may take the hit and continue support anyway.