Putin in Alaska

[Larniavc]

Putin will be in Alaska soon and there are a few things I wonder.

Putin is wanted for war crimes by the ICC. Will he be arrested when he lands in America?

Will Trump be able to get Russia to retreat to its pre invasion borders?

Will Trump throw his hands and give up if Russia will not retreat to its pre invasion borders?

Will Trump carry out his threats of sanctions if Russia will not retreat to its pre invasion borders?

 

[Richard T]

Putin will be in Alaska soon and there are a few things I wonder.

Putin is wanted for war crimes by the ICC. Will he be arrested when he lands in America?

Both the USA and Russia are not signatories to the ICC. Thus, the USA can legally ignore the order to arrest Putin. There was a signatory nation, Mongolia that Putin visited and they should have arrested him. Ukraine situation: ICC Pre-Trial Chamber II finds that Mongolia failed to cooperate in the arrest and surrender of Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin and refers the matter to the Assembly of States Parties

Will Trump be able to get Russia to retreat to its pre invasion borders?

Absolutely not unless the USA and NATO want to fight for it or Ukraine can win on their own. Russia is as we speak having an offensive success. Putin too I believe is asking for some territory that they currently8 do not possess.

Will Trump throw his hands and give up if Russia will not retreat to its pre invasion borders?

I think Trump is willing to give Russia some land to win the war. How much this becomes is ultimately up to Ukraine. I doubt Trump is too much concerned with the terms of peace, as he is to getting to a peace. Given Russia is having some success and Ukraine is tiring, the question becomes how much are they going to be willing to give up. Plus, there is a trust problem. Ukraine thinks that Putin will push forward even after a deal is made. It might wait for Trump to be out of office but they likely will be persistent in the future to take more land from not only Ukraine but possibly other nations including NATO members.

Will Trump carry out his threats of sanctions if Russia will not retreat to its pre invasion borders?

Trump mainly through his wife, is seeing a pattern of Russia aggression following peace talks. So Trump is more discerning and less trusting than before. He will try to get them to deal and is ramping up the pressure by addressing the Russian oil being sold to nations like India. I don't think Trump sees the pre-invasion borders as a sticking point. I think too that Ukraine is willing to give up some land. The big question is how much? If Russia makes it too costly Ukraine will not deal.

I can't say my responses are perfect but I do try to keep up on this conflict. It is hard to know too because Trump does change over time. I think that Putin has irritated Trump now so it will be interesting to see how things will go.