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Not the only climate change chart you need to see...

The Cadet

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Okay, first of all, what matters is the amount. Here, this article explains it better: http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/explainer/2009/08/7_billion_carbon_sinks.html
The fact is that the carbon we breathe out necessarily came from a source that had sequestered it fairly recently. It's a closed loop. But more importantly, the sheer amount we breathe out is utterly dwarfed by what is produced by our cars and machines.

So why is it that it's colder when we have less sun light per square inch......Shorter days. Cloud cover. shade, ??
But the current warming is most definitely not produced by the sun. The sun's output has been stable or dropping for quite some time.
 
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the U.S. government spends $22 billion a year to fight the global warming crisis....so it couldn't possibly be about the money......
If it is all about the money, why did the scientists produce the same results when republicans (who did not accept climate change) ran the country?
 
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We have to offer up scary scenarios (about global warming) ... ...each of us has to decide what the right balance is between being effective and being honest. Stephen Schneider, Stanford University environmentalist

There is no reason to give them any data, in my opinion, and I think we do so at our own peril! Michael Mann, Director Earth System Science Center, Pennsylvania State University

The fact is that we can't account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can't. Kevin Trenberth, National Center For Atmospheric Research, USA

The trick may be to decide on the main message and use that to guide what's included and what is left out [of the IPCC Reports]. Jonathan Overpeck, Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, University of Arizona

Weighting the solar irradiance more strongly in the models, then much of the 19th to mid 20th century warming can be explained from the sun alone. Rob Wilson, School of Geography & Geosciences, University of St Andrews

I am not convinced that the 'truth' is always worth reaching if it is at the cost of damaged personal relationships" Thomas J. Crowley, Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences, Duke University

It is interesting to see the lower tropospheric warming minimum in the tropics in all three plots, which I cannot explain. ...it is remarkably robust against my adjustment efforts.

Leopold Haimberger, Department of Meteorology and Geophysics, University of Vienna

It will not be models or theory, but observation that will provide the answer to the question of how the climate will change in many decades time. Andrew Watson, School of Environmental Sciences, UEA, UK

There is no individual model that does well in all of the SST [sea surface temperature] and water vapor tests we've applied. Ben Santer, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, USA

I doubt the modeling world will be able to get away with this [tuning] much longer Tim Barnett, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USA

I've been told that IPCC is above national FOI Acts. One way to cover yourself and all those working in AR5 would be to delete all emails at the end of the process Phil Jones, Director of Climate Research Unit, UEA, UK.

Any work we have done in the past is done on the back of the research grants we get - and has to be well hidden. Phil Jones, Director of Climate Research Unit, UEA, UK.

Very little research has ever been funded to search for natural mechanisms of warming... it has simply been assumed that global warming is manmade. Roy W. Spencer, University of Alabama in Huntsville

Why should I make the data available to you, when your aim is to try and find something wrong with it? Phil Jones, Director of Climate Research Unit, UEA, UK

Not only do journalists not have a responsibility to report what skeptical scientists have to say about global warming, they have a responsibility not to report what these scientists say. Ross Gelbspan, former editor of The Boston Globe

I would freely admit that on global warming we have crossed the boundary from news reporting to advocacy. Charles Alexander, Time magazine science editor
 
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RickG

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Co2 rise follows temperature rise. I know this has been a debatable issue and some scientists have created models that supposedly show otherwise.

I agree, and what we need to show is correlation with causation.

No one who is following the issue of AGW can simply dismiss the fact that politics is heavily involved in this debate. So whenever I approach this topic, it's with that in mind.

Again I agree, and I think it is very sad that it is such a political issue. Personally, I attribute Al Gore for making it such a political issue and making it such a controversy . I often wonder what if the awareness of rising global temperature was initiated during a Republican administration. Would our political views have been switched. After all, the Air Pollution Control Act was initiated during the Eisenhower administration.

I suspect the rise has to do with a multitude of factors. It's not a simple "show me this chart" kind of answer. However, I'm convinced that Co2 is not the culprit. It may play a role, but it's an insignificant one.

Yes I agree, there is not just one factor involved in climate change. There are several in effect, however, there is one that is dominate over all the others, and this is where we disagree, the science shows CO2 to be the major cause. What do you attribute to the major cause?
 
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PapaZoom

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I don't believe the science shows the major cause to be Co2. The natural cycle of the climate is affected by many factors. These factors, of which co2 may play a small role, work in concert. It cannot be a single factor driving it all. There may be a factor that is the strongest factor involved. My guess is the sun's activities play the most significant role in the overall direction the global climate takes.

BTW, thank you for your generous spirit in this discussion. I respect you a lot for that.
 
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lasthero

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the U.S. government spends $22 billion a year to fight the global warming crisis....so it couldn't possibly be about the money......
If it is all about the money, why did the scientists produce the same results when republicans (who did not accept climate change) ran the country?

I've heard this question asked a lot of times, but I don't think I've ever seen it answered.

It's also telling that people who spew the 'it's all about the money' line don't seem to know or care about how much money oil companies and other interested groups fund climate denial. The way they'd talk about, any scientist that doesn't accept climate change is just living in the poor house, but that's not the case.
 
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GQ Chris

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We made some great progress in this thread. Hopefully we will get more and more people just like PapaZoom to refute/expose AGW for the lies and propaganda it really is. I'm sick of the leftwing media and leftists trying to shove this at me every chance they get.
 
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RickG

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BTW, thank you for your generous spirit in this discussion. I respect you a lot for that.
You are welcome and I feel the same way.


There is no doubt that the sun is responsible for almost all of Earth's incoming energy and a major player in climate. It may surprise you but all climatologists on both sides of the issue agree upon that. But if the sun were causing the current warming would we not expect to see an increase in the suns "total solar irradiation" (TSI)?

Have you ever looked at any of the data from any of the scientific organizations that track this. The largest and most comprehensive is the World Radiation Center (PMOD/WRC), located in Switzerland. Here's a link to some of their data:
ftp://ftp.pmodwrc.ch/pub/data/irradiance/composite/DataPlots/

And here's a plot of their latest data (12/23/15)
ftp://ftp.pmodwrc.ch/pub/data/irradiance/composite/DataPlots/Three_comp_42_64_1512.pdf

And here is a graph that compares the relationship with the suns TSI and global average temperature.



The suns irradiation has been decreasing since the 1960s while the GAT has increased the most. So, how does one justify the sun being the cause of the GAT increase?
 
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Willtor

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Well, it's not just the left wing media and leftists. It's virtually everybody in the world except for American conservatives. If this is a conspiracy, it's a world-wide conspiracy that only the conservative politicians and pundits aren't involved in.
 
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I know some won't bother to watch any of this video. But if you're a person like me, who's been very skeptical about AGW from the beginning (thank's to Al Gore probably and certainly government hype) I try to find a balanced presentation of the issue. But that's difficult to find. And like most people, I'm not a climate scientist. This actually works in my favor as well as against me. Against me because there are parts of the science of it that are just way beyond my understanding. But in my favor because I recognize that if I'm being told faulty science (which I believe AGW presents) how would I know to refute it?

For me the answer is simple. Well not so simple. Read up on the issue as much as you can. But most importantly find resources you can trust. I have several persons that provide regular information to view and chew on. I trust those sources.
It's easy to find sources that will show the science behind AGW. More difficult to find reliable sources (and by that I mean I personally find them reliable) and investigate what they have to say.

If you are a skeptic like me, view this video in full. Here are the highlights it covers along with the scientists that are interviewed:
models

Dr. Chris de Freitas New Zealand
Dr. Tim Patterson canada
Dr. John Christy usa
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/16/u...finds-himself-a-target-of-suspicion.html?_r=0
Read the article. Dr Christy is an outcast for his views. So much for open minded debate.
Dr. Robert Balling usa

Quote of the day: "Just because the models give an output doesn't mean it's reliable."

climate history
Dr S Fred Singer usa
Dr Tim Ball Canada
George Taylor MS CCM usa
Dr Willie Soon USA
Dr Wibjorn Karlen Sweden

Extreme Weather Events
Dr Madhav Khandeker Canada
Dr Bill Gray USA
Dr David Legates USA

Ice Sheet Disintegration
Dr Richard Lindzen USA
Dr Pat Michaels CAto INST USA

Sea Level Trends

Atmospheric Methane

I pressed "post" before I was done so some of this is an addition. The underlined is the individual topics. I've included the "experts" in the video and a little background blog for you all to "examine."

NO - I don't care that some are funded by "big oil." I'm glad someone is funding an opposing view.

I won't read any attempts to discredit any of the "experts" in the video. I'm used to that as a tactic and it's dishonest. These guys know more about climate and the vast majority of us. And the ONLY way to discredit them is to use google. I've already done that. The usual suspect websites appear all the time.
 
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GQ Chris

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It's more like the liberals of the world. It isn't a conspiracy, just a Cult that the left are trying to convert as many people into as they can dupe to agree with them.
 
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PapaZoom

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I don't know if the sun is causing it but I believe it's considered a major player. That makes sense. A multitude of factors are at play here. As for the sun's TSI, I'll have to read up on that a bit as I've never really looked at it.


I've added it to my reading list. I will check it out.


A good question for which I have no immediate answer. However, like I said, the sun is but one of many factors. I'll see what I can sort out and get back on this.
 
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Willtor

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It's more like the liberals of the world. It isn't a conspiracy, just a Cult that the left are trying to convert as many people into as they can dupe to agree with them.

And the conservatives of the rest of the world.
 
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Phileas

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It's more like the liberals of the world. It isn't a conspiracy, just a Cult that the left are trying to convert as many people into as they can dupe to agree with them.

A pretty wide ranging cult. The COP21 talks were attended personally attended by those famously left-wing liberal wealth redistributionists Vladimir Putin and David Cameron, as well having representatives from other left-liberal countries such as Austria, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and both North and South Korea. In all 195 countries went along with the hoax and signed up to the agreement.
 
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The Cadet

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We have to offer up scary scenarios (about global warming) ... ...each of us has to decide what the right balance is between being effective and being honest. Stephen Schneider, Stanford University environmentalist

http://climatesight.org/2009/04/12/the-schneider-quote/

An egregious quote-mine that completely removes the context of what he was saying and changes its meaning completely.

There is no reason to give them any data, in my opinion, and I think we do so at our own peril! Michael Mann, Director Earth System Science Center, Pennsylvania State University

This was referring to, essentially, a witch hunt by Steve McIntyre. Mann was completely right, of course - there was no honest discourse here, just an attempt to smear the science.

The fact is that we can't account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can't. Kevin Trenberth, National Center For Atmospheric Research, USA

Another quote mine. Trenberth is complaining that his models do not account for the entire heat budget of the earth. When asked about the quote later on, Trenberth had this to say:

"Global warming is still happening - our planet is still accumulating heat. But our observation systems aren't able to comprehensively keep track of where all the energy is going. Consequently, we can't definitively explain why surface temperatures have gone down in the last few years. That's a travesty!"

The trick may be to decide on the main message and use that to guide what's included and what is left out [of the IPCC Reports]. Jonathan Overpeck, Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, University of Arizona

http://www.southwestclimatechange.org/blog/13516

Another quote taken completely out of context.

The context for the email is as follows: material in the IPCC report needs to be focused on an assessment of what is relevant to policy-makers, not a more general review of the science for other scientists. This was what I meant by “main message” – in Ricardo’s case, boiling the assessment down to the science related to modes of climate variability that is relevant to policy-makers. I was asking Ricardo to figure out what this message was (i.e., what the science says), and also help us meet our very tight page limits.

[...]

Of course, what we’re talking about is typical of all quality science writing: the need to focus on your audience, base what you are writing on solid science, and meet page limits. The IPCC is no different, and there is a reason the IPCC process includes many drafts and review steps – the goal is to be as focused and accurate as possible.​

Weighting the solar irradiance more strongly in the models, then much of the 19th to mid 20th century warming can be explained from the sun alone. Rob Wilson, School of Geography & Geosciences, University of St Andrews

This one is, for the most part, in context. What's missing is that this is a part of a discussion between scientists, criticizing the existing models, and that we know the sun had a lot to do with much of the 20th-century warming.

https://www.skepticalscience.com/print.php?n=1148


Full email in quote; the part you quoted out of context in red.


Again, you're taking standard science correspondance and making it out to be something suspicious or bad. I encourage everyone - go to the actual emails, read the full exchange. There's nothing suspicious about it.

It will not be models or theory, but observation that will provide the answer to the question of how the climate will change in many decades time. Andrew Watson, School of Environmental Sciences, UEA, UK

This one doesn't even sound iffy out of context, but in context it's even less suspicious. He's talking about advances in meteorology that may be decades away, not claiming that climate models cannot predict climate change.

There is no individual model that does well in all of the SST [sea surface temperature] and water vapor tests we've applied. Ben Santer, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, USA

More of the same. Read the whole email, not just the out-of-context quote.

I doubt the modeling world will be able to get away with this [tuning] much longer Tim Barnett, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USA

And again: http://www.ecowho.com/foia.php?file=0850.txt

I've been told that IPCC is above national FOI Acts. One way to cover yourself and all those working in AR5 would be to delete all emails at the end of the process Phil Jones, Director of Climate Research Unit, UEA, UK.
Any work we have done in the past is done on the back of the research grants we get - and has to be well hidden. Phil Jones, Director of Climate Research Unit, UEA, UK.
Why should I make the data available to you, when your aim is to try and find something wrong with it? Phil Jones, Director of Climate Research Unit, UEA, UK

So, just to be clear, you think that after so many people spent so much time turning out-of-context snippets of private email conversations into a huge conspiracy, Phil Jones is wrong to be wary and demand that this doesn't happen again? Your post is a perfect justification for his actions here. The fact is that after climategate, the CRU faced a massive witch hunt in the public eye, with people taking their statements out of context and using them to smear the entire profession of climate science. If you're interested in actually learning about that last quote, and the context it was in, here's an article by Nature:

http://blogs.nature.com/climatefeedback/2009/08/mcintyre_versus_jones_climate_1.html

Notable quote:

Jones says that he tried to help when he first received data requests from McIntyre back in 2002, but says that he soon became inundated with requests that he could not fulfill, or that he did not have the time to respond to. He says that, in some cases, he simply couldn’t hand over entire data sets because of long-standing confidentiality agreements with other nations that restrict their use.

Although Jones agrees that the data should be made publicly available, he says that “it needs to be done in a systematic way”. He is now working to make the data publicly available online and will post a statement on the CRU website tomorrow to that effect, with any existing confidentiality agreements. “We’re trying to make them all available. We’re consulting with all the meteorological services – about 150 members of WMO – and will ask them if they are happy to release the data”, says Jones. But getting the all-clear from other nations could take several months and there may be objections. “Some countries don’t even have their own data available as they haven’t digitized it. We have done a lot of that ourselves”, he says.​

Slightly different story. Of course, it doesn't reflect well on Phil Jones, I will freely admit that, but the context makes it far less damning than one might think.

Very little research has ever been funded to search for natural mechanisms of warming... it has simply been assumed that global warming is manmade. Roy W. Spencer, University of Alabama in Huntsville

...But of course, Roy W. Spencer is completely wrong. It's not merely assumed; we've demonstrated it beyond any reasonable doubt.

Not only do journalists not have a responsibility to report what skeptical scientists have to say about global warming, they have a responsibility not to report what these scientists say. Ross Gelbspan, former editor of The Boston Globe

Yeah, see, this is one of those quotes that make perfect sense if you're up to date on the consensus. Journalists have a responsibility to understand when an issue is a manufactroversy - that is, when a scientific issue doesn't have two equally viable sides. John Oliver put it best, but I probably shouldn't link that video here. There isn't really an "other side". The vast, vast majority of publishing climatologists accept global warming. The overwhelming majority of published papers (even from people who, in private, claim otherwise, like Judith Curry) accept climate change as real and man-made. So why should a crank like Spencer or Lindzen, people who have consistently and constantly been proven wrong, get more air-time? Should we be giving Dr. Peter Duesburg time in our articles on HIV and AIDS? After all, he's a "skeptical scientist", and he disagrees with the mainstream views.

I would freely admit that on global warming we have crossed the boundary from news reporting to advocacy. Charles Alexander, Time magazine science editor

But is this a bad thing? Climate change is happening. There is overwhelming scientific consensus, and yet a lot of people still don't accept it. So why shouldn't advocacy be the order of the day?
 
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the U.S. government spends $22 billion a year to fight the global warming crisis....so it couldn't possibly be about the money......
And you think that is more or less than the fossil fuel industry in the us?
 
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RickG

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A good question for which I have no immediate answer. However, like I said, the sun is but one of many factors. I'll see what I can sort out and get back on this.

I would think it would be obvious, the sun's TSI has steadily decreased over the past 50 years while atmospheric CO2 has risen faster than ever before in both recorded and recent geologic history. Look at the graph below showing the radiative forcings that affect warming.


Summary of the principal components of the radiative forcing of climate change. All these radiative forcings result from one or more factors that affect climate and are associated with human activities or natural processes as discussed in the text. The values represent the forcings in 2005 relative to the start of the industrial era (about 1750). Human activities cause significant changes in long-lived gases, ozone, water vapour, surface albedo, aerosols and contrails. The only increase in natural forcing of any significance between 1750 and 2005 occurred in solar irradiance. Positive forcings lead to warming of climate and negative forcings lead to a cooling. The thin black line attached to each coloured bar represents the range of uncertainty for the respective value.

Source: http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/faq-2-1.html

Also consider that the amount of warming due to CO2 is estimated to approximately 3 deg. C for each doubling. Since the beginning of the industrial revolution atmospheric CO2 was 280 ppm. Currently it is 400 ppm, less than half way to the doubling point and GAT has already risen a full 1 degree C, which is right on target.

If not the sun as I have shown, or CO2 as you suggest, then what is causing the warming?
 
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