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Physical & Life Sciences
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Natural Selection or Luck
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<blockquote data-quote="Micaiah" data-source="post: 795377" data-attributes="member: 6011"><p>Notto - Post 72</p><p>Random Mutation throws 1000 coins. Selective pressure discards all except the 3 in a line. No intelligence needed.</p><p></p><p>Or, to look at your example another way, if I take three coins and throw them 1000 times, there is a chance that they would land separated a distance of 200mm. If I throw them a million times, the chance is higher. Of course, there is also a chance that I get it the first time. Again, no intelligence necessary, just selective pressure (what you are looking for in the results) to select when it is right.</p><p></p><p>Your example can be used to show how selective pressure can build on favorable results. You need to know what number of unsuccessful attempts were made to try to determine the probability of the outcome. Otherwise, any argument from probability fails. In your example, you are using only one attempt. This is not analgous to random mutation within a population.</p><p></p><p>Micaiah</p><p>The rate of mutations resulting from copying errors in animals is about 1 in every 10 billion (10^-10). This is also the chance of a copying error occuring.</p><p></p><p>The chances of multiple mutations of the same nucleotide occuring in a single generation is extemely low.</p><p></p><p>In a population of say 100 000, the chance of a point mutation occuring in a specific nucleotide in one generation is 100 000 * 10^-10 = 10^-5.</p><p></p><p>The chance of the same mutation occuring 5 times in a generation is </p><p>(10^-5)^5 = 10^-25.</p><p></p><p>The probability of 10 animals having the same mutation would be 10^-50.</p><p></p><p>The probability of 1000 animals in one generation with the same mutation would be 10^-5000. or 1 in 10^5000.</p><p></p><p>I estimate that if the world was made entirely of sand, the total number of grains of sand would be 8.78x10^27. Suppose our world was but a grain of sand in a giants world, and the giants world had 8.78x10^27 giant grains of sand. The chance of picking out a specific grain of sand from this would be 1 in 7.72^55, which is about the same as the chance of getting ten of the same mutations. This is practically impossible.</p><p></p><p>The chance all four players in a game of bridge will be dealt with one suit of 13 cards two times in a row is 1 in 4.84x10^54.</p><p></p><p>The chance of getting three coins to line up in a row as discussed above is 6.4x10^13. The chance of getting 10 coins to line up in a row is 1 in (40000)^20 or 1 in 1.05^46.</p><p></p><p>These events are considered impossible. It is clearly impossible that in one generation you could expect to get say ten of the same point mutations, let alone one thousand.</p><p></p><p>I want to investigate the chances of a change to a single nucleotide. These chances remain unaffected for calculation purposes by alternative nucleotide substitutions giving the same phenotypic changes.</p><p></p><p>How many animals do you think would need to have the same point mutation to be sure that the mutation survives?</p><p></p><p>It may be argued that the changes could occur in one animal and then get passed onto subsequent generations. In that case, the chances would need to include the chance of survival.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Micaiah, post: 795377, member: 6011"] Notto - Post 72 Random Mutation throws 1000 coins. Selective pressure discards all except the 3 in a line. No intelligence needed. Or, to look at your example another way, if I take three coins and throw them 1000 times, there is a chance that they would land separated a distance of 200mm. If I throw them a million times, the chance is higher. Of course, there is also a chance that I get it the first time. Again, no intelligence necessary, just selective pressure (what you are looking for in the results) to select when it is right. Your example can be used to show how selective pressure can build on favorable results. You need to know what number of unsuccessful attempts were made to try to determine the probability of the outcome. Otherwise, any argument from probability fails. In your example, you are using only one attempt. This is not analgous to random mutation within a population. Micaiah The rate of mutations resulting from copying errors in animals is about 1 in every 10 billion (10^-10). This is also the chance of a copying error occuring. The chances of multiple mutations of the same nucleotide occuring in a single generation is extemely low. In a population of say 100 000, the chance of a point mutation occuring in a specific nucleotide in one generation is 100 000 * 10^-10 = 10^-5. The chance of the same mutation occuring 5 times in a generation is (10^-5)^5 = 10^-25. The probability of 10 animals having the same mutation would be 10^-50. The probability of 1000 animals in one generation with the same mutation would be 10^-5000. or 1 in 10^5000. I estimate that if the world was made entirely of sand, the total number of grains of sand would be 8.78x10^27. Suppose our world was but a grain of sand in a giants world, and the giants world had 8.78x10^27 giant grains of sand. The chance of picking out a specific grain of sand from this would be 1 in 7.72^55, which is about the same as the chance of getting ten of the same mutations. This is practically impossible. The chance all four players in a game of bridge will be dealt with one suit of 13 cards two times in a row is 1 in 4.84x10^54. The chance of getting three coins to line up in a row as discussed above is 6.4x10^13. The chance of getting 10 coins to line up in a row is 1 in (40000)^20 or 1 in 1.05^46. These events are considered impossible. It is clearly impossible that in one generation you could expect to get say ten of the same point mutations, let alone one thousand. I want to investigate the chances of a change to a single nucleotide. These chances remain unaffected for calculation purposes by alternative nucleotide substitutions giving the same phenotypic changes. How many animals do you think would need to have the same point mutation to be sure that the mutation survives? It may be argued that the changes could occur in one animal and then get passed onto subsequent generations. In that case, the chances would need to include the chance of survival. [/QUOTE]
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