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Discussion and Debate
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Physical & Life Sciences
Creation & Evolution
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<blockquote data-quote="lucaspa" data-source="post: 738288" data-attributes="member: 4882"><p>Very, very close.&nbsp; Right idea but&nbsp;wrong details <img src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7" class="smilie smilie--sprite smilie--sprite1" alt=":)" title="Smile :)" loading="lazy" data-shortname=":)" /> </p><p></p><p>It looks like&nbsp;you are using an asexually reproducing population, so you have each of 6,000 big toes making 5 offspring for your 30,000 and each of 0.9 x 24,000 =&nbsp; 21,600 smaller toes having 5 offspring, right?&nbsp; That would give you the 108,000 small toes.</p><p></p><p>Instead, the situation is based on sexual reproduction, so we have 21,600 total breeding animals for 11,800 breeding pairs, each&nbsp; <strong>pair </strong>producing 5 offspring for a total of 59,000 offspring.&nbsp; Now, <strong>assuming</strong> that each of the 6,000 big toes chose a small toed partner and <strong>assuming</strong> that big toe shows up in all 5 offspring (both not realistic but close enough for government work), that means 30,000 big toe offspring and only 29,000 small toed offspring. The market share has increased not from 20% to 21.7% but from 20% to nearly 50%.&nbsp; A much bigger jump than&nbsp;you calculated!</p><p></p><p>Now, being realistic is going to lower that 50% some.&nbsp; To find out the real number,&nbsp;go back to the delta p equation and put in 0.1 for s, 0.25 for p, and 0.75 for q and see what you get for delta p. Add that to 20% to get the new market share.</p><p></p><p>And you are absolutely right that in the next generation, some will have even bigger toes than the first generation.&nbsp; That is the beauty of <strong>cumulative</strong> selection.&nbsp; Very good!</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="lucaspa, post: 738288, member: 4882"] Very, very close. Right idea but wrong details :) It looks like you are using an asexually reproducing population, so you have each of 6,000 big toes making 5 offspring for your 30,000 and each of 0.9 x 24,000 = 21,600 smaller toes having 5 offspring, right? That would give you the 108,000 small toes. Instead, the situation is based on sexual reproduction, so we have 21,600 total breeding animals for 11,800 breeding pairs, each [B]pair [/B]producing 5 offspring for a total of 59,000 offspring. Now, [B]assuming[/B] that each of the 6,000 big toes chose a small toed partner and [B]assuming[/B] that big toe shows up in all 5 offspring (both not realistic but close enough for government work), that means 30,000 big toe offspring and only 29,000 small toed offspring. The market share has increased not from 20% to 21.7% but from 20% to nearly 50%. A much bigger jump than you calculated! Now, being realistic is going to lower that 50% some. To find out the real number, go back to the delta p equation and put in 0.1 for s, 0.25 for p, and 0.75 for q and see what you get for delta p. Add that to 20% to get the new market share. And you are absolutely right that in the next generation, some will have even bigger toes than the first generation. That is the beauty of [B]cumulative[/B] selection. Very good! [/QUOTE]
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