Is the unthinkable WW3 argument valid?

[Vanellus]

The argument against imposing a no fly zone over Ukraine seems to be the unthinkable nature of conflict with Russia leasing to WW3. But what if Putin decided to invade one or more of the Baltic states who are NATO members, or Finland and Sweden who aren't? Surely the unthinkable argument applies to those countries as well? Is Ukraine expendable but Finland isn't?

 

[Leaf473]

The argument against imposing a no fly zone over Ukraine seems to be the unthinkable nature of conflict with Russia leasing to WW3. But what if Putin decided to invade one or more of the Baltic states who are NATO members, or Finland and Sweden who aren't? Surely the unthinkable argument applies to those countries as well? Is Ukraine expendable but Finland isn't?

I've thought the same question myself. If someone essentially says don't do X or I will blow us all up, that person can gain control of everything one step at a time.

 

[Pavel Mosko]

Putin has enough trouble trying to take on Ukraine let along attempting to add another country to the mix. But from what I can tell it is Moldova that is the next target.
Belarus president stands in front of map indicating Moldova invasion plans

So yes putting a no fly zone over Ukraine is definitely escalating things towards a potential WW3, especially since Putin has put out all his statements of putting his nuclear forces on high alert because of removing his banks from SWIFT and the previous sending weapons to Ukraine.


Besides all this we should not forget that all of this likely could have been avoided if we had not kept rolling NATO eastward.... All of Putin's incursions have been a response to that.

Instead of doing No Fly Zones we should stop buying oil from Russia and should get our own oil production back to what we were doing under Trump!

 

[A_Thinker]

Besides all this we should forget that all of this likely could have been avoided if we had not kept rolling NATO eastward.... All of Putin's incursions have been a response to that.

Nations which had previously existed under the thumb of the (Russia-based) USSR ... jumped at the chance to be part of the NATO defense alliance.

Prior to the Soviet breakup in 1991, Russia largely controlled ...

Lithuania
Estonia
Latvia
Poland
Albania
Bulgaria
Ukraine
Moldova
Romania
East Germany
Czechoslovakia
Hungary

Is it any wonder that these nations sought the protection of the NATO alliance once they gained freedom from Russia ???

 

[Vanellus]

Countries like Poland wanted to join NATO, and NATO membership has popular support in Poland and other countries. NATO membership hasn't been forced on them by threats of or actual violence. Maybe they had the odd idea of a possible invasion by Russia?

The USSR signed the Helsinki Final Act of 1975 which includes the following:

Within the framework of international law, all the participating States have equal rights and duties. They will respect each other's right to define and conduct as it wishes its relations with other States in accordance with international law and in the spirit of the present Declaration. They consider that their frontiers can be changed, in accordance with
international law, by peaceful means and by agreement. They also have the right to belong or not to belong to international organizations, to be or not to be a party to bilateral or multilateral treaties including the right to be or not to be a party to treaties of alliance; they also have the right to neutrality.

Yeltsin signed the NATO-Russia Founding Act in 1997 which includes the following:

refraining from the threat or use of force against each other as well as against
any other state, its sovereignty, territorial integrity or political independence in
any manner inconsistent with the United Nations Charter and with the
Declaration of Principles Guiding Relations Between Participating States
contained in the Helsinki Final Act;

respect for sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all states and
their inherent right to choose the means to ensure their own security, the inviolability of borders and peoples' right of self-determination as enshrined in the Helsinki Final Act and other OSCE documents

Will we be able to ramp up oil production before Ukraine is laid to waste?

 

[dqhall]

Countries like Poland wanted to join NATO, and NATO membership has popular support in Poland and other countries. NATO membership hasn't been forced on them by threats of or actual violence. Maybe they had the odd idea of a possible invasion by Russia?

The USSR signed the Helsinki Final Act of 1975 which includes the following:


Yeltsin signed the NATO-Russia Founding Act in 1997 which includes the following:


Will we be able to ramp up oil production before Ukraine is laid to waste?

In Russia some people protesting against war may get 20 year jail sentences and a criminal record for life.

Years ago Putin took Chechnya by force. Over 100,000 people were killed. Recently Russia sent a Chechen tank column to Kyiv with instructions to kill the leaders of Ukraine. The Ukrainians destroyed 56 of their tanks and killed a Chechen general who was leading them. The article shows a photo of a column of destroyed tanks.
Ukraine says it killed Chechen forces sent to assassinate Zelensky

I am sure NATO leaders do not want a Russian dictator trying to assassinate them and force their young men into military service to kill innocent people. Putin is opposed with force.

 

[dqhall]

Will we be able to ramp up oil production before Ukraine is laid to waste?

The U.S. is pumping more oil now than when Biden started his term.
United States Crude Oil Production - February 2022 Data - 1950-2021 Historical

Increasing production requires drilling, connecting wells to pipelines or other form of transport. This may take months or years.

Venezuela and Iran produce oil. They are limited by sanctions. If Russia gets oil and gas sanctions, the price of energy will go higher. This might hurt consumers.