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Discussion and Debate
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News & Current Events (Articles Required)
IHME now estimating 600,000 US COVID-19 deaths by May 1 (was 350K by Jan)
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<blockquote data-quote="essentialsaltes" data-source="post: 75129013" data-attributes="member: 294566"><p>Updated June 29th, reducing further to 175,168 deaths by October 1.</p><p></p><p>While I still think this is optimistic, it's interesting to see some changes in the overall pattern. Way back when, IMHE estimates were pretty close to a bell curve, and everything was pretty much over by the end of the forecast period at the tail end of the, er, tail. Now many states are still forecast to have significant deaths at the October 1st cutoff.</p><p></p><p>As an example, Florida is forecast to have its maximum estimated deaths per day (~200) on October 1st and still rising pretty steeply at that point.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="essentialsaltes, post: 75129013, member: 294566"] Updated June 29th, reducing further to 175,168 deaths by October 1. While I still think this is optimistic, it's interesting to see some changes in the overall pattern. Way back when, IMHE estimates were pretty close to a bell curve, and everything was pretty much over by the end of the forecast period at the tail end of the, er, tail. Now many states are still forecast to have significant deaths at the October 1st cutoff. As an example, Florida is forecast to have its maximum estimated deaths per day (~200) on October 1st and still rising pretty steeply at that point. [/QUOTE]
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IHME now estimating 600,000 US COVID-19 deaths by May 1 (was 350K by Jan)
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