Governors imposing tighter controls are more popular

[sfs]

From TPM:

 

[CRAZY_CAT_WOMAN]

The governor in CA handled as will as he can. No thanks! To Trump, when Trump encouraged his supporters. To protested against Democrat governors, that had shutdowns on his Twitter I think the governor should been able to enforced a better shut down. By force.

 

[Albion]

The survey is based upon responses given the last week in April!

There are some obviously misleading statistics shown there if the reader is thinking that this is the current situation (and of course that is exactly what the title of the thread was claiming).

I haven't any doubt that the same poll taken this weekend, for example, would turn up substantially different results.

 

[iluvatar5150]

The survey is based upon responses given the last week in April!

There are some obviously misleading statistics shown there if the reader is thinking that this is the current situation (and of course that is exactly what the title of the thread was claiming).

I haven't any doubt that the same poll taken this weekend, for example, would turn up substantially different results.

The polling spanned Apr 27-May 4. Today is only May 12.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/cont...5f-b3c1-0af6c38f060d/?itid=lk_inline_manual_2

Why do you think the results would change "substantially" in a week? And how is reporting them now any more misleading than your implication that we should gauge today's opinions by taking a poll 4-5 days from now (it's only Tuesday, after all)?

 

[sfs]

The survey is based upon responses given the last week in April!

There are some obviously misleading statistics shown there if the reader is thinking that this is the current situation (and of course that is exactly what the title of the thread was claiming).

I haven't any doubt that the same poll taken this weekend, for example, would turn up substantially different results.

By all means, post an update when new numbers are available. Until then, these are the only data we've got.

 

[Albion]

By all means, post an update when new numbers are available. Until then, these are the only data we've got.

These may be the only data you've got, but you shouldn't have presented them as being current, which your choice of title certainly did.

A lot of people were willing to self-isolate for a few weeks when the virus was apparently running wild but we were all told that it would flatten out and then we could move back towards normal. We have since seen that that was not what the Democratic governors had in mind.

Now they are the object of protests against the abrogation of the people's rights, property, and livelihoods. So we'll see what things look like in a more accurate survey to come.

 

[iluvatar5150]

These may be the only data you've got, but you shouldn't have presented them as being current, which your choice of title certainly did.

Again, they're not as out of date as you claimed.

(starting to wonder if I'm on ignore. surprised it took so long tbh)

 

[sfs]

These may be the only data you've got, but you shouldn't have presented them as being current, which your choice of title certainly did.

I presented them on the day they were published -- today. Are you suggesting that I was being deceptive by posting poll results on the day they were announced?

A lot of people were willing to self-isolate for a few weeks when the virus was apparently running wild but we were all told that it would flatten out and then we could move back towards normal. We have since seen that that was not what the Democratic governors had in mind.

Where did you get the idea that we would be able safely relax restrictions before transmission actually got significantly lower? How could that possibly make sense? In most of the country, they've only just leveled off.

Now they are the object of protests against the abrogation of the people's rights, property, and livelihoods.

They were also the object of protests while the poll data was being collected.

 

[Albion]

I presented them on the day they were published -- today. Are you suggesting that I was being deceptive by posting poll results on the day they were announced?

I'm not saying anything like that, but the facts are the facts. In your title, you described the results as if current even though the survey included a note telling when the survey was conducted. The mood of the country is changing fast.

 

[charsan]

The survey is based upon responses given the last week in April!

There are some obviously misleading statistics shown there if the reader is thinking that this is the current situation (and of course that is exactly what the title of the thread was claiming).

I haven't any doubt that the same poll taken this weekend, for example, would turn up substantially different results.

Those stats will always be off because they over-sample dems and under sample reps. Really none of those surveys are trustworthy

 

[sfs]

I'm not saying anything like that, but the facts are the facts. In your title, you described the results as if current even though the survey included a note telling when the survey was conducted.

I trust that you've objected to every other poll that's ever been posted here, since results are always announced some time after the polling is conducted. You have, right?

 

[comana]

Those stats will always be off because they over-sample dems and under sample reps. Really none of those surveys are trustworthy

And your proof of this?

 

[Albion]

I trust that you've objected to every other poll that's ever been posted here, since results are always announced some time after the polling is conducted. You have, right?

"Some time after the polling is conducted?"

That wasn't the issue. It was how long after polling was conducted.

Anyway, and because you think this is unavoidable, consider this:

Rasmussen Reports is the only nationally recognized public opinion firm that tracks the President's approval rating. The results are reported daily.

 

[Albion]

And your proof of this?

That is indeed how these polls usually are conducted. The presumption is that if more people identify as Democrats than as Republicans, the sampling should be in step with that spread. Unfortunately, that isn't the way the results are reported.

 

[pitabread]

Those stats will always be off because they over-sample dems and under sample reps. Really none of those surveys are trustworthy

Reality has a liberal bias.

 

[DerSchweik]

The survey is based upon responses given the last week in April!

There are some obviously misleading statistics shown there if the reader is thinking that this is the current situation (and of course that is exactly what the title of the thread was claiming).

I haven't any doubt that the same poll taken this weekend, for example, would turn up substantially different results.

It's a poll - what should we reasonably expect?

 

[DerSchweik]

12 states polled
The combined population of those 12 states is 197,027,223 people
The poll queried 8,086 people overall
That's 0.0041% of the the combined populations of all 12 states.
I don't care how "scientific" the poll pretends to be - that's a ridiculously puny sample size to be making such broad conclusions as it does.

 

[keith99]

12 states polled
The combined population of those 12 states is 197,027,223 people
The poll queried 8,086 people overall
That's 0.0041% of the the combined populations of all 12 states.
I don't care how "scientific" the poll pretends to be - that's a ridiculously puny sample size to be making such broad conclusions as it does.

You need to take a basic statistics class. A random sample of a very small percentage can be quite reliable.

 

[DerSchweik]

You need to take a basic statistics class. A random sample of a very small percentage can be quite reliable.

I've taken multiple statistics classes as part of my degree in engineering. You?

Moreover, if real life is any indicator, especially in politics, these sorts of polls can just as easily be (and usually are) quite unreliable - "reliable" rarely being an operative word in ANY sort of politics.

Don't believe me - go back a couple years in the video archives and look at the dazed faces of democrats who trusted in the random samples of much greater percentages of voters the night Trump won.

But hey, whatever spins your top is totally up to you - your mileage may vary.

 

[Albion]

It's a poll - what should we reasonably expect?

Most people, I gather, think that if a pollster is going to sample the preferences of the electorate, he ought to do just that rather than weight the outcome in favor of how people have voted in the past.

Presumably, every voter is capable of either staying with his past preferences or of changing them in response to the issues, personalities, etc. he has to react to at the present time.