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<blockquote data-quote="hedrick" data-source="post: 75144285" data-attributes="member: 239032"><p>I've seen various pictures of beaches this weekend. The ones from nj.com for NJ beaches look a lot less crowded than some other states.</p><p></p><p>There's one other issue that I suspect, even though almost no one has talked about it. The states that are doing the best now are the ones that were hit hardest early. Presumably that means they have the most people who are immune. Estimates seem to be around 20%. 20% isn't nearly enough to create herd immunity for a disease with an R0 of 2.5 or higher. But when precautions have brought Rt down to around 1, 20% immune can matter. I note that in NJ that things were bad in the N early on. That's the part next to NYC. As time when on, it moved south. At the moment, case numbers are highest in the S. <a href="https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/07/south-jersey-county-sees-highest-rate-of-coronavirus-cases-for-third-week-in-row-see-how-your-county-compares.html" target="_blank">South Jersey county sees highest rate of coronavirus cases for third week in row. See how your county compares.</a> Our policies have been the same state-wide. As far as I know, they are equally enforced.</p><p></p><p>One problem with this is that there's no one explanation. There's an interaction of State policies, local enforcement, attitudes of the people, population density, previous cases, and specific events.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="hedrick, post: 75144285, member: 239032"] I've seen various pictures of beaches this weekend. The ones from nj.com for NJ beaches look a lot less crowded than some other states. There's one other issue that I suspect, even though almost no one has talked about it. The states that are doing the best now are the ones that were hit hardest early. Presumably that means they have the most people who are immune. Estimates seem to be around 20%. 20% isn't nearly enough to create herd immunity for a disease with an R0 of 2.5 or higher. But when precautions have brought Rt down to around 1, 20% immune can matter. I note that in NJ that things were bad in the N early on. That's the part next to NYC. As time when on, it moved south. At the moment, case numbers are highest in the S. [URL="https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/07/south-jersey-county-sees-highest-rate-of-coronavirus-cases-for-third-week-in-row-see-how-your-county-compares.html"]South Jersey county sees highest rate of coronavirus cases for third week in row. See how your county compares.[/URL] Our policies have been the same state-wide. As far as I know, they are equally enforced. One problem with this is that there's no one explanation. There's an interaction of State policies, local enforcement, attitudes of the people, population density, previous cases, and specific events. [/QUOTE]
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