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Earth population

Late_Cretaceous

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THe biggest problem with their estimates is the assumption that population growth with continue at a linear rate, unchaning for the next 120 years. Already, the rate of population growth is diminishing. Within this century it is likely that the world's population will have stabilized, or perhaps even be in a state of decline.
 
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Late_Cretaceous

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Population growth estimates pop up once in a while. Most of the ones that I have seen tend to agree that population growth is slowing down.


Here is one reference from Nature.

http://www.nature.com/nature/fow/010802.html

"The latest study, presented by Lutz et al. in this issue, reckons an 85% chance that global population will peak before 2100, and predicts with 60% certainty that this peak will be less than 10 billion, compared with a population of 6 billion today. They even give an outside chance, 15%, that there will be fewer people living at the end of the century than are alive now.

Their results are notable not just for the relatively low figures projected, but also for the rigorous probabilistic analysis that accompanies them. Whereas the United Nation estimates present just four possible outcomes (constant, high, medium and low), the figures presented by Lutz et al. include specific chances of a particular scenario occurring on a specific date. This graphically illustrates the confidence (or otherwise) of predictions further into the future.

To arrive at their conclusions, the team combined two forecasting techniques — 'time series extrapolation', a statistical analysis based on known figures, and 'expert judgement', whereby key parameters are estimated taking into account foreseeable events such as disease, war and fertility trends.

Apart from the lower total population figure estimated (8.8 billion by 2050, compared to 9.3 for the UN's medium estimate, 2000 revision), Lutz et al. analysis reveal some interesting trends. Population decline in developed nations is expected to accelerate, with the European part of the former USSR expected to lose 20% of it population by 2050. Such declines lead inevitably to ageing populations, and half of all people living in Japan at the end of the century are predicted to be over 60 years old."
 
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Late_Cretaceous

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YOu also might want to look into the United Nations Population Information Network

http://www.un.org/popin/functional/population.html

There is an interactive portion of the website, which allows you to "estimate" world (or regional) population over the next 48 years under various conditions.

http://esa.un.org/unpp/

For example, you can assume a constant fertility rate - which would yeild a population of 13 Billion by 2050. Or you can incorporate the fact that ferlility rates are dropping world wide to yeild population estimates from 7.9 to 10.9 billion. The huge differences are based on assumpions. One assupmtion that you could make is that mortality and birthrates will not change over the next five decades - that however would not be wise. Since the world population growth rate has changed over the last 50 years, it is safe to assume that it will change over the next 50. What they have done is identify trends in life expectancy, birth rates, death rates, etc. and extrapolated over time.
 
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Late_Cretaceous

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Looks like the website you refered to there used the same calculator, but deliberately misleads people to think that the 12 billion people by 2040 estimate is the only one and that it is rock solid. They should mention that this is only ONE of several estimates, and one with a pretty big caveat attached.
 
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JohnR7

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Originally posted by seebs
I also wish to observe that people have been observing that we will necessarily run out of food "within a generation at most" for centuries.

We are not going to run out of food. With the machinery we have now a days, 5% of the population can produce enough food to feed everyone. If people are starving, usually it is because the rich are not willing to help out the poor.

I have a village area in India I have been trying to help them out to buy a tiller to make productive some ground there that could be used to feed the people. I am surprised at how few people are willing to get involved to help them buy a tiller.

Even here on this board, there most likely is not anyone who would be willing to donate even $20 to do something to help.

http://community.webshots.com/album/52246004fqsMVm
 
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lithium.

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Originally posted by JohnR7
Did you ever wonder why or how Bill Gates can afford to give a billion dollars, but you can not afford anything?

No, because I know why he is rich. He is smart, and he helped make something that sold a lot.
 
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JohnR7

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Originally posted by seesaw
No, because I know why he is rich. He is smart, and he helped make something that sold a lot.

There are not a lot of secrets about Bill Gates, he is a very open person and you can know just about whatever you want to know about him.

The reason he can give a billion dollars is because he first invests his money, then when he can not get it to grow any more by investing it, he gives it away. He plans to give away all of his money eventually.

Of course up 'tell now, what he has given away has been in the area of computers, and that eventually makes him more money. So you could say he is just investing. But Ted Turner got a hold of him and convinced him to put some money into immunizaton programs for third world nations. So between the two of them they are going to try to wipe out childhood disease world wide, the way it has been eliminated in developing nations.

His father works full time giving his money away. It is his job to review all the various requests that come in for dontations. But seldom do they give money to people who ask for it, because they have all their own projects that they are funding.
 
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JesusServant

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Originally posted by JohnR7

Even here on this board, there most likely is not anyone who would be willing to donate even $20 to do something to help.

http://community.webshots.com/album/52246004fqsMVm

:(

How do you know what other projects people on this forum are funding or volunteering time with?  Why do you assume the worst of people?  Your agenda may not fit into someone elses and we only have so much money to go around.  If I gave to every charity or fund raiser I thought needed attention, I would be starving myself.
 
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TheBear

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Originally posted by JohnR7
Did you ever wonder why or how Bill Gates can afford to give a billion dollars, but you can not afford anything?

If, or how much, or to who anyone gives donations to, is really no one else's business.

Hey John, why don't you disclose your own financial situation, and how you benifit from a trust fund? (You really don't have to if you don't want. I am just trying to make a point here.)

Thanks,
John
 
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