In the old testament it seems that if you go through the list of kings that if there was a good king, then God would bless them, and a bad king they would go badly etc. examples of where they ended up, are the babylonians taking them all out of Judah when they had been doing things wrong etc, all the prophets said that if they continued to sin in the sight of the lord it would happen and then it did.
Going against that theory is the book of Job, where it isnt Job doing the wrong thing, its more to do with things that are out of his control, its understood that this may be a more develloped theology, and maybe written later in the peice. But in the end Job still gets aloft of good things from being good.
There was alot of clear cut rules for them to follow though, and under tht covenant it all made sence.
But these days we arent under that covenant, and we understand that punishment is reserved for after we have lived. We dont agree with the beleif in karma, or the ying and yang thing.
When Jesus was asked who sinned for this man to be born blind, Jesus replies neither him or his parents, he was made blind so that God could work through his blindness (sorry sorta quoting from memory)
In this case Jesus is pointing out that the bad things havent happened because of bad things done, no anger from God, it has just happened like this.
I cant think of any thing in the new testament that says that bad things happened because of bad things done, but alot of things i can think of say that we need to turn to Jesus, before we are christians its not about doing good and bad, its about asking Jesus for forgiveness and having him as our savior, after he is your savior then it is time to start thinking more towards the bible.
Then read James and see what he has to say about what having faith is, i may say i have faith, but you may show me your faith through your actions.
Im sortof trying to get at the fact that the wrong question is being asked, or it should be looked at from a different angle, Jesus wants us to follow his example, and if you want to head for the light, thats the way to do it, in the new covenant, it may seem like people are getting away with alot, but in actual fact most fun through sin normally comes up as pretty empty, where as doing what God wants is alot more meaningful.
Its not about looking at what you could get away with, but seeing what God wants you to do. And yeah then it says in the new testament that you will receive riches in heaven for every thing youve done (man i need to start looking up verses hey?!, sorry in a rush)
Um your second question of how do we know if we have found Gods favour (sorry if i went no where near answering the first one :S)(if i spent a day researching id have alot better answer :S)
Yes Gods favour does manifest in tanjible ways, but not for every one

If you want to see Gods favour, i think the direction to go is the direction the bible says, through doing all the things that the new testament says, try and live out what the gospels and letters have to say, then through things like ministry it all seems to happen.
The only example that i have is ive seen Gods work through leading youth group, through things ive had to say, that im pretty sure were lead by God, and some of the results that we have experienced with kids responding that we wouldnt expect. But yeah seeing what Gods doing never seems to be what id expect id see hey.
Umm sorry if your allready doing every thing ive had to say, and ive wasted your reading time :S i sorta got my self confused, and answering questions like this should take alot more time, and i should have looked for more parts of the bible to find answers :S
But no id say he doesnt bless sin, but he can work with any thing, so it wasnt his plan for me to do this sin, but he can now work with where im up to.