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CDC report on large scale events and transmission in Barnstable County, Massachusetts
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<blockquote data-quote="sfs" data-source="post: 76134117" data-attributes="member: 8727"><p>Holy cow are those gross misunderstandings of this report(*)</p><p></p><p>Here are some facts:</p><p>1) The outbreak took place during 'bear week' in Provincetown, which means it was about the most extreme conditions possible. (If you don't know what bear week is or what 'bear' means in the context of Ptown, well, I'm not going to be the one to fill you in.) This involved masses of unmasked people packed tightly into bars and clubs for hours, singing and dancing, and repeated for multiple days.</p><p></p><p>2) Almost everyone present was vaccinated. I hear that places were being quite careful in checking for evidence of vaccination before they let anyone in. That doesn't mean there were no unvaccinated present, but the bulk of the crowd was vaccinated.</p><p></p><p>From those two facts, two conclusions follow.</p><p>First, in the face of the delta variant, vaccination alone is not enough to prevent a substantial transmission rate. Vaccination is great but it has its limit, and this was clearly beyond that limit.</p><p></p><p>Second, the study doesn't tell us anything about how likely the vaccinated are to become infected compared to the unvaccinated. If only vaccinated people are exposed, only vaccinated people will be infected. Concluding from this that vaccination is an abject failure is absurd.</p><p></p><p>The surprising thing in the report is really the high viral loads seen in the vaccinated people. Now this may only represent virus replicating in the nasal passages rather than the lungs, which would be good for those infected, but I don't know how much difference that makes in terms of the likelihood that they will transmit the virus.</p><p></p><p>(*) I see that the report includes me in the acknowledgements, which is a little silly since I didn't work on the report or the analysis of these samples, but the whole sequencing team is there. (Apparently I would have been in the author list if the CDC hadn't used a draft version. Whatever.)</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="sfs, post: 76134117, member: 8727"] Holy cow are those gross misunderstandings of this report(*) Here are some facts: 1) The outbreak took place during 'bear week' in Provincetown, which means it was about the most extreme conditions possible. (If you don't know what bear week is or what 'bear' means in the context of Ptown, well, I'm not going to be the one to fill you in.) This involved masses of unmasked people packed tightly into bars and clubs for hours, singing and dancing, and repeated for multiple days. 2) Almost everyone present was vaccinated. I hear that places were being quite careful in checking for evidence of vaccination before they let anyone in. That doesn't mean there were no unvaccinated present, but the bulk of the crowd was vaccinated. From those two facts, two conclusions follow. First, in the face of the delta variant, vaccination alone is not enough to prevent a substantial transmission rate. Vaccination is great but it has its limit, and this was clearly beyond that limit. Second, the study doesn't tell us anything about how likely the vaccinated are to become infected compared to the unvaccinated. If only vaccinated people are exposed, only vaccinated people will be infected. Concluding from this that vaccination is an abject failure is absurd. The surprising thing in the report is really the high viral loads seen in the vaccinated people. Now this may only represent virus replicating in the nasal passages rather than the lungs, which would be good for those infected, but I don't know how much difference that makes in terms of the likelihood that they will transmit the virus. (*) I see that the report includes me in the acknowledgements, which is a little silly since I didn't work on the report or the analysis of these samples, but the whole sequencing team is there. (Apparently I would have been in the author list if the CDC hadn't used a draft version. Whatever.) [/QUOTE]
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CDC report on large scale events and transmission in Barnstable County, Massachusetts
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