- Dec 17, 2010
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Even if you just cannot accept climate change - there’s another reason to get on board with the energy transition. We will RUN OUT of fossil fuels! They are finite! And even though there’s 5 TIMES too much coal left from a climate point of view - it’s not infinite. It runs out in in 135 years, oil in 50 and gas in 45. Years of fossil fuel reserves left (Data from 2020 - so I look 4 years off).
But the real crisis starts much earlier for 2 reasons:
ONE: Note the graph said “Years of global coal, oil and natural gas left, reported as the reserves-to-product (R/P) ratio which measures the number of years of production left based on known reserves and present annual production levels.”
This is a technical way of saying the 3 most deceptive words in energy reporting. “At current rates”. If you look at the history of energy since the start of the industrial revolution, there has never been such a thing for long. “At current rates” just means that year’s rates. Generally speaking, the next year they’ll need MORE energy as the world industrialises, the population rises, and we discover new exciting things to do with energy.
TWO: Resource extraction itself must peak. Basically, to mix up the metaphors - we pick all the low hanging fruit first - then have to get a ladder to climb higher and this is more tiring and uses more of the energy we want to get in the first place!
Or let’s look at oil. Like the fruit, we naturally start off with the biggest, easiest oil fields that are not too deep to drill. Some of the huge oil fields we found were truly awesome places! But as already mentioned, we use more and more each year. So those oil fields have expanded oil production for a few decades, peaked in production, and then declined. This is geology saying “You’re near the end folks!” Peak oil.
As you can see, American regular sweet crude oil peaked in the 1970's. It wasn't until both the world crude oil price had got high enough and the technology had arrived that American Fracking and Canadian Tar Sands became viable. But only at a certain higher price - which is basically the point. Peak oil is about the end of cheap oil, not the end of oil. It's about hitting the half way mark.
Do the maths globally - and we’re somewhere near the half way mark globally - meaning the oil from here is going to be harder to drill, out in deep sea fields, more expensive, and never again meet demand!
If we don’t prepare for this - peak oil will hit first and hit hard! Imagine the panic as we realise OIL PRODUCTION WILL NEVER AGAIN MEET GLOBAL DEMAND! We are not far off that.
But fortunately fears of climate change have started the EV revolution - and now there is an alternative.
Biden's Inflation Reduction Act means SO many battery factories are being built now that by 2030 America would hypothetically (as a way of illustrating the sheer quantity) be able to build 18 MILLION EVs a year! That's all your new cars and more - America buys 14 million new cars each year. Tracking the EV battery factory construction boom across North America | TechCrunch
Americans buy about 55 million cars a year but the rest are second hand. https://www.consumeraffairs.com/automotive/how-many-cars-are-sold-each-year-in-the-us.html The reality is all these batteries will be spread across various sectors - especially grid firming and backup power reserves. But you can see the potential!
Renewables are growing exponentially. Global solar capacity used to double every 4 years - now it’s every 3. By 2031 there will be more solar than all other power sources combined! The fastest energy change in history still underway EV’s are also growing fast. The IEA says it’s so that demand for ALL fossil fuels will peak around 2030ish - and begin to decline thereafter. Global coal demand expected to decline in coming years - News - IEA Get your superannuation out of fossil fuels - because there are going to be TRILLIONS in stranded assets when this bubble bursts!
Basically China's massive investment in wind and solar and batteries has brought the price down to the point where this thing is unstoppable - and we're going to see an oil DEMAND PEAK before an actual GEOLOGICAL PEAK. So phew - that's a relief!
So Bidenomics? The boringly named I.R.A? (Which should be called the "Make America Great Again" act!)
That's about what share of the energy pie America gets to have.
Are you going to vote for Biden so SOME American factories can make batteries, getting lithium and rare earth's from friends like my country of Australia? (The world's biggest lithium exporter). Or are you going to vote for Trump who ignores all this and just says "Drill baby drill" because it makes the less aware MAGA types cheer?
Good one Trump. Shut down IRA, dry up the funds guaranteeing some American energy security, and ACCELERATE the oil depletion and global peak oil! You'll REALLY be prepared for what's coming then!
Oh - and the greatest irony? By cheering on more drilling, and more oil use, Trump is in effect propping up the global oil price. What does that do? Only funds about half the entire RUSSIAN ECONOMY! Let alone the Middle Eastern Petro-tyrants!
If you want to bankrupt your enemies, buy an EV and cover your roof with solar and you'll massively cut your oil bill - and help bankrupt your enemies.
Vote for Kamala who will keep the IRA. It's just the sensible - patriotic thing to do!
But the real crisis starts much earlier for 2 reasons:
ONE: Note the graph said “Years of global coal, oil and natural gas left, reported as the reserves-to-product (R/P) ratio which measures the number of years of production left based on known reserves and present annual production levels.”
This is a technical way of saying the 3 most deceptive words in energy reporting. “At current rates”. If you look at the history of energy since the start of the industrial revolution, there has never been such a thing for long. “At current rates” just means that year’s rates. Generally speaking, the next year they’ll need MORE energy as the world industrialises, the population rises, and we discover new exciting things to do with energy.
TWO: Resource extraction itself must peak. Basically, to mix up the metaphors - we pick all the low hanging fruit first - then have to get a ladder to climb higher and this is more tiring and uses more of the energy we want to get in the first place!
Or let’s look at oil. Like the fruit, we naturally start off with the biggest, easiest oil fields that are not too deep to drill. Some of the huge oil fields we found were truly awesome places! But as already mentioned, we use more and more each year. So those oil fields have expanded oil production for a few decades, peaked in production, and then declined. This is geology saying “You’re near the end folks!” Peak oil.
As you can see, American regular sweet crude oil peaked in the 1970's. It wasn't until both the world crude oil price had got high enough and the technology had arrived that American Fracking and Canadian Tar Sands became viable. But only at a certain higher price - which is basically the point. Peak oil is about the end of cheap oil, not the end of oil. It's about hitting the half way mark.
Do the maths globally - and we’re somewhere near the half way mark globally - meaning the oil from here is going to be harder to drill, out in deep sea fields, more expensive, and never again meet demand!
If we don’t prepare for this - peak oil will hit first and hit hard! Imagine the panic as we realise OIL PRODUCTION WILL NEVER AGAIN MEET GLOBAL DEMAND! We are not far off that.
But fortunately fears of climate change have started the EV revolution - and now there is an alternative.
Biden's Inflation Reduction Act means SO many battery factories are being built now that by 2030 America would hypothetically (as a way of illustrating the sheer quantity) be able to build 18 MILLION EVs a year! That's all your new cars and more - America buys 14 million new cars each year. Tracking the EV battery factory construction boom across North America | TechCrunch
Americans buy about 55 million cars a year but the rest are second hand. https://www.consumeraffairs.com/automotive/how-many-cars-are-sold-each-year-in-the-us.html The reality is all these batteries will be spread across various sectors - especially grid firming and backup power reserves. But you can see the potential!
Renewables are growing exponentially. Global solar capacity used to double every 4 years - now it’s every 3. By 2031 there will be more solar than all other power sources combined! The fastest energy change in history still underway EV’s are also growing fast. The IEA says it’s so that demand for ALL fossil fuels will peak around 2030ish - and begin to decline thereafter. Global coal demand expected to decline in coming years - News - IEA Get your superannuation out of fossil fuels - because there are going to be TRILLIONS in stranded assets when this bubble bursts!
Basically China's massive investment in wind and solar and batteries has brought the price down to the point where this thing is unstoppable - and we're going to see an oil DEMAND PEAK before an actual GEOLOGICAL PEAK. So phew - that's a relief!
So Bidenomics? The boringly named I.R.A? (Which should be called the "Make America Great Again" act!)
That's about what share of the energy pie America gets to have.
Are you going to vote for Biden so SOME American factories can make batteries, getting lithium and rare earth's from friends like my country of Australia? (The world's biggest lithium exporter). Or are you going to vote for Trump who ignores all this and just says "Drill baby drill" because it makes the less aware MAGA types cheer?
Good one Trump. Shut down IRA, dry up the funds guaranteeing some American energy security, and ACCELERATE the oil depletion and global peak oil! You'll REALLY be prepared for what's coming then!
Oh - and the greatest irony? By cheering on more drilling, and more oil use, Trump is in effect propping up the global oil price. What does that do? Only funds about half the entire RUSSIAN ECONOMY! Let alone the Middle Eastern Petro-tyrants!
If you want to bankrupt your enemies, buy an EV and cover your roof with solar and you'll massively cut your oil bill - and help bankrupt your enemies.
Vote for Kamala who will keep the IRA. It's just the sensible - patriotic thing to do!
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