Price of crude oil almost back to pre-Iran war levels

mark46 · Jun 19, 2026

Even a partial opening of Hormuz should keep crude oil prices at near pre-war levels.

A full opening would likely lead to larger decreases. Countries have taken many steps to deal with lower supply for the Middle East. Also, the world economy is down some, thus leading to lower demand.

More critical than oil is the supply of natural gas and fertilizer.

Pommer · Jun 19, 2026

mark46 said:
Even a partial opening of Hormuz should keep crude oil prices at near pre-war levels.

A full opening would likely lead to larger decreases. Countries have taken many steps to deal with lower supply for the Middle East. Also, the world economy is down some, thus leading to lower demand.

More critical than oil is the supply of natural gas and fertilizer.

Antebellum WTI prices were ~$65/bbl; today’s spot price is ~$76/bbl. “Near” is only true if we consider the $120/bbl as the benchmark.

mark46 · Jun 19, 2026

Pommer said:
Antebellum WTI prices were ~$65/bbl; today’s spot price is ~$76/bbl. “Near” is only true if we consider the $120/bbl as the benchmark.

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Laodicean60 · Jun 20, 2026

mark46 said:
Even a partial opening of Hormuz should keep crude oil prices at near pre-war levels.

A full opening would likely lead to larger decreases. Countries have taken many steps to deal with lower supply for the Middle East. Also, the world economy is down some, thus leading to lower demand.

More critical than oil is the supply of natural gas and fertilizer.

On the flip side, we still need to watch for a potential whiplash effect from the supply disruption, which hurts a slowing economy.

Fantine · Jun 20, 2026

mark46 said:
Even a partial opening of Hormuz should keep crude oil prices at near pre-war levels.

A full opening would likely lead to larger decreases. Countries have taken many steps to deal with lower supply for the Middle East. Also, the world economy is down some, thus leading to lower demand.

More critical than oil is the supply of natural gas and fertilizer.

And it only cost us $300 billion in cash, $100 billion in released Iranian funds, $113 billion waging war, 13 American soldiers killed and hundreds wounded, higher prices for months, the loss of respect (or should I say increased loss of respect) in the free world....

Would you call that a win?

mark46 · Jun 20, 2026

Fantine said:
And it only cost us $300 billion in cash, $100 billion in released Iranian funds, $113 billion waging war, 13 American soldiers killed and hundreds wounded, higher prices for months, the loss of respect (or should I say increased loss of respect) in the free world....

Would you call that a win?

Almost everyone, including me, believes that this war was a major mistake. Even more think that continuing after a couple of weeks and imposing the blockade compounded the error.

There are different views on the June 2025 war.

hedrick · Jun 20, 2026

mark46 said:
Almost everyone, including me, believes that this war was a major mistake. Even more think that continuing after a couple of weeks and imposing the blockade compounded the error.

There are different views on the June 2025 war.

I suspect you aren’t using a broad enough pool for your sample. Many Republicans supported it, and even now echo his claim that he won. 38% is not a negligible number. How popular is the Iran War?

Yarddog · Jun 20, 2026

mark46 said:
Even a partial opening of Hormuz should keep crude oil prices at near pre-war levels.

A full opening would likely lead to larger decreases. Countries have taken many steps to deal with lower supply for the Middle East. Also, the world economy is down some, thus leading to lower demand.

More critical than oil is the supply of natural gas and fertilizer.

What happens, after 60 days, and Iran starts charging for passage through the strait?

hedrick · Jun 20, 2026

Yarddog said:
What happens, after 60 days, and Iran starts charging for passage through the strait?

Companies will pay. Oil will still flow. Not that I think it’s a good thing.

mark46 · Jun 20, 2026

No one knows what will happen in 60 days, or 30 for that matter.

As far as the US is concerned, we need to get help to remove the mines and decide on priorities' first: fertilizer, natural gas and helium. Then oil.

Tolls are low down the list of concerns at this point. For me, tolls wouldn't cost more the $300B slush fund, the removal of sanctions and the return of iran monies behind held. It is not as if all that money will go to Iran anytime soon.

mark46 · Jun 20, 2026

hedrick said:
Companies will pay. Oil will still flow. Not that I think it’s a good thing.

And each country will take the money out of Iranian money being held by them and from their supposed contributions to the rebuilding fund.

mark46 · Jun 20, 2026

hedrick said:
.What happens, after 60 days, and Iran starts charging for passage through the strait?

Yarddog said:
Other than precedent, would a toll have a different economic effect that a $300B rebuilding fund?

Yarddog · Jun 20, 2026

hedrick said:
Companies will pay. Oil will still flow. Not that I think it’s a good thing.

But it will affect gas prices

mark46 · Jun 20, 2026

Yarddog said:
But it will affect gas prices

maybe, maybe not

Consider the 10-year effect if the gulf countries pay $300B in tolls compared to $300B in a rebuilding fund.

Also, what do you think happens to the retail price of oil if the Saudis cost of production goes up by the amount of these tolls. I don't think that there would be a material effect. The prices charged by OPEC are driven by many things. However, given their low cost of production, prices are not greatly affected by the cost of production.

As an aside, the tolls would be labelled as something different.

essentialsaltes · Jun 30, 2026

Look out for that price 'gauging'.

High Fidelity · Jun 30, 2026

Great news. Fuel prices expected to fall in the next 3-5 business years...

Fantine · Jun 30, 2026

You know what will bring gas prices down most? EV vehicles. Solar power. Green energy.

We can crush OPEC's power by reducing our demand for oil and gas. But green energy is less expensive, and we also produce oil, and greedy oligarchs have gotten Trump to drill in the national parks to reduce oil prices (with considerable inducements, I'm sure.)

mark46 · Jun 30, 2026

essentialsaltes said:
Look out for that price 'gauging'.

View attachment 380874

After the delay to extract more profits, companies will reduce their rates, However, I wouldn't expect that until the war is over, or at least until the backlog of ships have gotten through the straits.

Actually, I am surprised that the international prices for crude are so low. Are they factoring in free passage with service fees?

Nithavela · Jul 1, 2026

I'd be more worried by the amount of actual physical oil in the reserves than about the market price.

Say it aint so · Jul 1, 2026

essentialsaltes said:
Look out for that price 'gauging'.

View attachment 380874

This guy is talking about price gouging?

"The room records provided by Mazars show that, among the rooms the Secret Service rented, two rooms were charged at $895 each," the report said. "The room records also show that former President Trump's D.C. hotel rented out more than 100 rooms that evening at rates of less than $895—including at least one room rented out for just $150

Trump Hotel rooms reserved for Secret Service on Feb. 22, 2018, were more than four times more expensive than a government per diem rate. The report said the prices represented "an astounding markup of more than 450% of the per diem rate."--CBS

Price of crude oil almost back to pre-Iran war levels

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