Sure, they can win it, if the other side is even more unpopular. People don't like Trump, but people don't like the Democrats much right now either. The winners in the 2016, 2020, and 2024 weren't that popular--but they were less unpopular (at least in the swing states) than their opponents, so they won.
Of course, who knows if the current administration will even stay the current administration by then. There's probably at least a 1/4 chance that, given Trump's age, he either dies or suffers some kind of illness that requires him to exit the presidency.
Certainly, anyone can win. That's why, early last year, when some conservative GOP supporters were predicting that MAGA/GOP would dominate American politics for the next generation and that Democrats would become irrelevant, I advised them to exercise caution. This echoed sentiments from after the 2008 election, when Democrats claimed the GOP was no longer relevant in American politics. Over the past 25 years, we've seen that Americans generally don't want one party to control politics for more than a couple of years at a time. Since the 2000 election, voters have consistently switched their support back and forth between parties.
However, there are significant shifts occurring within the American electorate that will shape future elections more than party popularity.
Demographics: The Hispanic share of the US electorate is projected to rise from 7% in 2000 to 16% by 2028, while the White electorate will fall from 81% to 62%. Baby boomers, mostly conservative, made up 28% in 2000 and are expected to drop to 15% by 2028.
Although the GOP never won a majority of Hispanic votes, Trump achieved notable gains in 2016, 2020, and nearly 48% in 2024. However, these gains have since disappeared, with 70% of Hispanic voters now disapproving of GOP policies, largely due to impacts from current immigration policy. These voters are unlikely to support the GOP unless Democrats adopt similar positions.
Cuban-American voters, historically Republican, have also been affected by immigration policy, notably the revocation of over 500,000 TPS cases. This may influence how Cuban-Americans vote in Florida's midterms, potentially shifting the state toward Democrats for years to come.
Youth Voters – The GOP made a big fuss about some young white men voting in 2024, but this appears to be an isolated trend. For the past fifty years, younger generations consistently supported Democrats, and a single election won’t change that pattern. In fact, most youth voters who participated in the 2024 presidential election have already moved on. Unless the GOP changes its policies, these voters are unlikely to return.
Pope Leo – Pope Leo seems more determined than any previous pope to play an active role in American politics. Perhaps it’s because he’s American, and unlike other popes, he feels both entitled and obligated to get involved. Pope Leo is set to redefine what “pro-life” means. For decades, Catholics and Evangelicals defined pro-life as being anti-abortion; however, Pope Leo’s interpretation includes opposing capital punishment, caring for the poor, and treating immigrants with kindness and respect. This expanded definition will affect not only Catholics but also many Evangelicals.
Democrats have their share of problems, and some of their policies are further to the left than what most Americans support. However, the issue with the GOP is that many of its policies are tailored for white, middle-aged Americans—a demographic that is gradually shrinking. Unless the GOP changes its approach, it will continue to lose support.