Trump blockade squeezing Iran so hard regime may be dumping oil into Gulf, experts say

More evidence of the epic fail. Iran fighting harder than the administration brain trust expected.

This is more evidence of an epic victory over the Iranian terrorist regime. Iran is now at the point where they cannot even hang onto their own oil.

Elongated said:

More evidence of the epic fail. Iran fighting harder than the administration brain trust expected.

Click to expand...

That does not follow. Epic Fury completely crushed the Iranian military, destroyed most of their weapons, destroyed their ability to produce weapons grade Uranium and wiped out the ruling administration. It achieved all its goals. The only thing left to the regime was to block shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in order to create economic pressure on other nations so they would in turn put pressure on Trump. That however has been flipped. Trump has blockaded Iranian ships while allowing all other shipping to pass through unimpeded.
Iran cannot ship their oil anywhere and their storage is at full capacity and they don't currently have the ability to build more storage. They have the choice either of sealing their wells, which is permanent, or simply allowing the oil to flow. It seems they would rather create ecological disaster than put their wells out of action.
This war is not against the Iranian people but against the Islamic regime that has ruled there for decades. That regime is now bankrupt, their assets around the world have been frozen and it is only a matter of time before they collapse completely. Then the Iranian people can rebuild what was once a relatively free and prosperous nation.

prodromos said:

That does not follow. Epic Fury completely crushed the Iranian military, destroyed most of their weapons, destroyed their ability to produce weapons grade Uranium and wiped out the ruling administration. It achieved all its goals. The only thing left to the regime was to block shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in order to create economic pressure on other nations so they would in turn put pressure on Trump. That however has been flipped. Trump has blockaded Iranian ships while allowing all other shipping to pass through unimpeded.
Iran cannot ship their oil anywhere and their storage is at full capacity and they don't currently have the ability to build more storage. They have the choice either of sealing their wells, which is permanent, or simply allowing the oil to flow. It seems they would rather create ecological disaster than put their wells out of action.
This war is not against the Iranian people but against the Islamic regime that has ruled there for decades. That regime is now bankrupt, their assets around the world have been frozen and it is only a matter of time before they collapse completely. Then the Iranian people can rebuild what was once a relatively free and prosperous nation.

Click to expand...

Sounds like you’re making my points for me. Where we differ is that the US has painted itself into a corner. The Strait was freely traveled prior to the war. Iran has been heavily damaged but the same group remains in charge. The Strait is not being freely navigated.
The US and Israel are winning militarily but losing the bigger war.
Similarly, the US changed regimes and won every major battle in Vietnam… but lost the war.

Seems like Iran is going after this for the long haul. If it is true they are dumping their oil rather than shutting off their wells, it seems likely to be effective. Why? because it not only buys more time but the ecological disaster is sure to push the world toward a quicker solution that may conflict with the goals of Trump (though they too are a moving target). This throws out the idea of a checkmate that some were heralding if Iran ran out of container ships for their oil. Because the chess board just expanded with Iran having a move to just dump oil into the sea. For those that are unaware the Iranian wells may not be able to restart if they stop pumping, so they have to put the oil somewhere or risk losing millions of barrels in future production. Sure the USA could bomb these fields but it would mean higher world prices for a far longer time.

While the U.S. has higher prices of gas, many might fail to realize that some Asian nations which depend heavily on Middle East oil and LPG are as little as two months from running out of gasoline entirely, though some supply is now moving from Russia. Such shortages will put enormous pressure on the U.S. and Iran and will result in a global slowdown not from prices but from some nations having severe shortages.

The question is will Trump wait if he knows the pressure on Iran is not as strong as he suspected? It seems that if he wants the list of demands he is going to have to speed up the timeline for troops on the ground rather than slow play toward a diplomatic solution. Iran is a government infused with religion making it far less likely to capitulate through severe hardship or diplomacy. If other nations do have to ration gas. (I have already heard of propane being allowed to be filled to 50% in at least one nation, India for instance is keeping track of how often a household fills an LPG tank, and requiring 25 to 40 days for households and giving only 70% of normal for commercial applications.) Are these severe economic and energy consequences worldwide going to used to blame Iran the U.S. or both?

A scary political solution that a few are mentioning would be a tradeoff against Taiwan to persuade China to help with Iran. Would the U.S. ban the sale of weapons or take other steps after the election, to barter against Taiwan for help in Iran? Kissinger himself traded concessions on Taiwan for Chinese help in ending the Vietnam war.

Few might know too that China controls some of the most critical elements used to manufacture U.S. missiles. https://www.mining.com/china-limits-supply-of-critical-minerals-to-us-defense-sector-wsj/ This means a quick burn through U.S. inventories may bring no replenishment.

So a more important conflict than some might suppose that the whole world is watching. Hoping we all take time to pray for peace and good policies that can last into the future according to God's will.

Elongated said:

Sounds like you’re making my points for me. Where we differ is that the US has painted itself into a corner. The Strait was freely traveled prior to the war. Iran has been heavily damaged but the same group remains in charge. The Strait is not being freely navigated.
The US and Israel are winning militarily but losing the bigger war.
Similarly, the US changed regimes and won every major battle in Vietnam… but lost the war.

Click to expand...

Trump ruled out attempting a regime change from the beginning. He has repeatedly stated that any regime change will be up to the Iranian people. Currently no one is in charge in Iran which is what is making negotiations problematic. Each faction is doing its own thing.