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Sudden drop in fentanyl overdose deaths linked to Biden-era global supply shock
Fentanyl overdose deaths have fallen sharply due to a supply shortage, according to a study in Science. The findings point to Chinese regulations on chemical precursors—likely spurred by US diplomacy—as the primary cause of the decline.
For more than a decade, the United States has faced a relentless and heartbreaking increase in fatal drug overdoses driven by synthetic opioids. A new analysis suggests this trend has suddenly reversed due to a major disruption in the global supply chain of illicit fentanyl. Published in Science, the study indicates that regulatory actions taken by the Chinese government, following high-level diplomatic engagement with the Biden administration, may be the primary driver behind this unexpected decline in mortality.
The trajectory of the American overdose crisis has been grim for fifteen years. Deaths attributed to synthetic opioids rose more than 25-fold during that period. The annual toll reached a record high of 76,000 deaths in 2023. Yet, starting in the middle of that year, the numbers began to fall. By the end of 2024, the rate of fentanyl overdose deaths had dropped by more than one-third.