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Above-normal, active [but not as bad as 2024] 2025 hurricane season predicted by Colorado State University

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essentialsaltes

essentialsaltes

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2025 hurricane season forecast (Colorado State University)​

Forecast parametersForecast for 2025Average for 1991-2020
Named storms1714.4
Named storm days8569.4
Hurricanes97.2
Hurricane days3527
Major hurricanes43.2
Major hurricane days97.4

"I’d say that it’s not as aggressive as 2024, but we are still expecting an above average season in 2025," WRAL meteorologist Anthony Baglione explained.

As NOAA and CSU predicted, the 2024 season was strong -- and deadly. "Helene" was so destructive that it was retired and added to a list of other hurricane names that will no longer be used.
 
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DaisyDay

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Too bad NOAA is to be replaced by WeatherGrok, but I'm sure the subscription price will be well worth it.

Too bad FEMA is not being replaced, just scrapped, if DOGE has its way.
 
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essentialsaltes

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Above-normal activity predicted for remainder of 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA says​

[But both NOAA and Colorado have lowered their predictions a bit.]

There is now a 50% chance of an above-normal season, a 35% chance of a near-normal season and a 15% chance of a below-normal season, according to the updated assessment, which was released on Thursday. In May, the agency forecast a 60% chance of above-normal activity.

On Wednesday, Colorado State University (CSU) updated its seasonal forecast for storm activity in the Atlantic Basin. While the university's team have also maintained their previous forecast of a slightly above-average season, they said they have lower-than-normal confidence in their outlook due to a significant difference in wind speed and direction in the atmosphere over the Caribbean Sea in June and July.

CSU is predicting 16 named storms, eight hurricanes and three major hurricanes for the 2025 season.

[About one less in each category as in the OP forecast.]
 
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essentialsaltes

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Erin is the first hurricane of the season, and is already a major hurricane. I was surprised how fast it blew up from tropical storm to Cat 4. Expected to reach Cat 5 later today. Fortunately, it looks like it will avoid direct hits on islands or the mainland.
 
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essentialsaltes said:
Only two hurricanes so far in the Atlantic, but both have been major hurricanes.
Click to expand...
Only five so far, but 4 of them have been major hurricanes, matching the forecast for major hurricanes.
 
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4 fewer storms and 4 fewer hurricanes than the April prediction, but correct on the 4 major hurricanes, including 3 category 5's of which Melissa topped out at 185 mph winds, making it one of the strongest hurricanes ever recorded. [Melissa] also generated the highest wind gust ever recorded by dropsonde data, with a wind gust of 252 mph (406 km/h) at an altitude of 657 ft (200 m), exceeding the record set by Typhoon Megi in 2010.

From a USAnian perspective, a fortunate year with no landfalls of any hurricanes.
 
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