Mass Shooting at Annunciation Catholic Church/School in Minneapolis

rjs330 · Sep 3, 2025

JosephZ said:
This is not true, and even when a mass shooter has been found to be suffering from a mental illnes, the mental illness isn't always the primary driver.

Completely disagree. Of course its the primary driver. Its either pure evil or its a result of mental illness. Take your pick. The study relies on known or diagnosed mental health issues. And a full 33% of them have the mental health component. How many suffered from it and we didnt know about. There are evil people out there who just want to see people die in America. That's evil and certainly those people are not mentally healthy.

But let's just say that the research is absolutely correct. Its full of holes, but lets for arguments sake say its not. Rhats 33% fewer mass shootings if they couldn't get a gun. Thats not insignificant.

ThatRobGuy · Sep 3, 2025

DaisyDay said:
This report comes amidst an overwhelming wave of anti-transgender legislation. In 2023, for the first time in their 40+ year history, the Human Rights Campaign declared a National State of Emergency for LGBTQ+ Americans, in response to the over 550 anti-LGBTQ+ bills introduced into state houses across the country, more than 85 of which were passed into law. This trend continued into 2024, where over 500 additional anti-LGBTQ+ bills were introduced, and over 40 passed into law across 14 states.

One does have to be careful with how the HRC frames things...

While I'm not doubting that there could be a few laws that were passed that reasonable people could agree could be seen as "anti-Trans", there's also a lot of the "Not letting Me do whatever I want = Anti-Me" or "Doesn't specifically cater to Me = Anti-Me" logic injected into the activism position on this.

For instance on the former, the HRC leans heavily on the sports-based topic as their evidence of anti-trans legislation, when I think many people (and not just from one political faction) can have a reasonable disagreement on that.

For the latter, I notice they're mentioning things like "one-sized fits all zero tolerance" policies with regards to fighting and bullying. Which I interpret as, if a school has an anti-bullying policy, but it's one size fits all, and doesn't provide elevated levels of intervention in cases where the target of the bullying is LGBT, they consider that to be "anti-LGBT"

They also cite the absence of laws aimed at "conversion therapy".

On paper, that sounds like a reasonable one if we were still operating on the commonly understood contemporary definition of conversion therapy from 10-15 years ago. (which was, parents taking their gay kid to the local pastor so he can verbally berate them and tell them how much they're disappointing God)

However, some states have widened the definition of "conversation therapy" to include a lot more than just "angry pastor yelling at kids"

ThatRobGuy · Sep 3, 2025

Stopped_lurking said:
Your data for the estimated number of gang members in the USA is wrong (you said it was 255), and so is the data for the UK (you said 42), and so is the data for the Czech republic (you said 28). If you plot these data you get an intercept of 0.24, a slope of 0.0304 and a r2 of 0.93, none of which is close to what you presented earlier.View attachment 369469

Yes, the information I posted did note that it was rounded (hence, the 255 vs. 250)

But, all math minutia aside, are you suggesting that my assertion was incorrect? (which was that, homicide rates have a stronger link to gang membership rates than to gun ownership rates)

durangodawood · Sep 3, 2025

ThatRobGuy said:
....But, all math minutia aside, are you suggesting that my assertion was incorrect? (which was that, homicide rates have a stronger link to gang membership rates than to gun ownership rates)

One would expect. But non-gang gun violence is sufficient to get people in this country say they are very upset. But its a tolerable level of upset, obviously.

Gang violence is "bad" in the abstract, but off the radar so long as its not my neighborhood.

ThatRobGuy · Sep 3, 2025

durangodawood said:
One would expect. But non-gang gun violence is sufficient to get people in this country say they are very upset. But its a tolerable level of upset, obviously.

Gang violence is "bad" in the abstract, but off the radar so long as its not my neighborhood.

Some cities have taken positive steps towards addressing gang issues with early intervention programs (Like Baltimore and Atlanta) and have had some decent success with it.

Baltimore was able to reduce their homicide rate by 25% without the state of Maryland altering their gun laws.

Which, if anything, at least provides them with a "public policy debate hedge", as that's one less off-ramp that their political opponents can lob at them. They can now say "we've already pruned that branch, now it's time to look at the other branches on the tree"

durangodawood · Sep 3, 2025

ThatRobGuy said:
Some cities have taken positive steps towards addressing gang issues with early intervention programs (Like Baltimore and Atlanta) and have had some decent success with it.

Baltimore was able to reduce their homicide rate by 25% without the state of Maryland altering their gun laws.

Which, if anything, at least provides them with a "public policy debate hedge", as that's one less off-ramp that their political opponents can lob at them. They can now say "we've already pruned that branch, now it's time to look at the other branches on the tree"

Gang members killing each other is not that politically important, unfortunately.

The worry level of my child at school or myself at the Walmart, now that gets voters thinking.

Stopped_lurking · Sep 3, 2025

ThatRobGuy said:
Yes, the information I posted did note that it was rounded (hence, the 255 vs. 250)

But, all math minutia aside, are you suggesting that my assertion was incorrect? (which was that, homicide rates have a stronger link to gang membership rates than to gun ownership rates)

Your plot had an intercept of 13-14, thats not minutiae! Your plot was something completely different. It was not made on the same dataset, or it was straight up wrong. Try to remove Brazil, Mexico and South Africa from your dataset and plot homicide rate vs guns per 100k, and you'll find that r2 for that curve is 0.97 (that is it explains more of the variance). Is that correct? Probably not. But they are 3 outliers, and have alot of leverage. I could pick 3 other countries if you would like?

Your data for the number of gang members per 100k is suspect (is it also from UNODC?). In 2024, the Swedish police reported that 14000 were actively involved in criminal gangs with an additional 48000 in the periphery. So 62000/10570000*100000= 587 gang members per 100k (or 132 for active members). I'm not certain if I'm allowed to post links '62 000 personer knyts till gängkriminalitet' so I'll post in quotes. So there is a lot things to understand (how does data from different countries differ) and decide on (what countries should be included) before a rigorous analysis can be done. Right now, I don't think we can say with any certainty how strong any links are. Somewhere there is a criminologist, economist or sociologist crying over our abuse of the data.

But I mainly got upset for you posting obviously wrong homebrewed statistics (so much so that I found my account from 2004

). You said you used AI, don't if you can't interpret it's results.

rambot · Sep 3, 2025

Aaron112 said:
Why not bring that up? Big expose of groups of practicing sinful people may not help, because after all who cares, but better to warn families of honest people so they don't just continue trusting bad guys, eh ?

There is a FAR FAR FAR FAR greater rate of SA perpetrators as youth pastors than trans folks.

I had a thread about it a long while back. But it got tiresome because they kept getting charged and charged and I didn't want to bother keeping up.

Aaron112 · Sep 3, 2025

There's so many there's no room nor time nor purpose(on this forum) to keep up listing them all, sinners all.

RileyG · Sep 3, 2025

Aaron112 said:
Not in this world, no.
Not until Jesus returns.

Right on! It will only worsen.

RileyG · Sep 3, 2025

rambot said:
There is a FAR FAR FAR FAR greater rate of SA perpetrators as youth pastors than trans folks.

I had a thread about it a long while back. But it got tiresome because they kept getting charged and charged and I didn't want to bother keeping up.

You are absolutely right. Predators go where there are access. They are highly motivated.

Trans people are victims 99.9% of the time.

rambot · Sep 3, 2025

Aaron112 said:
There's so many there's no room nor time nor purpose(on this forum) to keep up listing them all, sinners all.

God calls on us to worry about our OWN sin.

Why worry about their sin?

Aldebaran · Sep 3, 2025

rambot said:
God calls on us to worry about our OWN sin.

Why worry about their sin?

That's been the point all along. We can't stop someone who wants to shoot people in a murderous way. God will deal with them afterwards. Allow that to happen rather than trying to restrict and punish society as a whole in hopes of preventing a tiny fraction who "might" do something wrong.

durangodawood · Sep 3, 2025

Aldebaran said:
That's been the point all along. We can't stop someone who wants to shoot people in a murderous way......

We can make it easier. Or we can make it more difficult.

rambot · Sep 3, 2025

Aldebaran said:
That's been the point all along. We can't stop someone who wants to shoot people in a murderous way. God will deal with them afterwards.

Well that's just Stupid. God doesn't tell us to be wreckless with safety. He doesn't tell us to do things that endanger us.

And of course you CAN stop people who want to shoot. When there is a decrease in gun violence due to gun laws, it's becausea gun laws stopped some people

Aldebaran said:
Allow that to happen rather than trying to restrict and punish society as a whole in hopes of preventing a tiny fraction who "might" do something wrong.

Why call a gun law a "punishment"? It's not.

Aldebaran · Sep 3, 2025

durangodawood said:
We can make it easier. Or we can make it more difficult.

Ok, then have armed law-abiding citizens around who will make it difficult for a mass shooter by being able to stop him. It's more difficult to go on a shooting spree when your targets are shooting back. That's most likely why mass shooters choose schools so often.

Aldebaran · Sep 3, 2025

rambot said:
Well that's just Stupid. God doesn't tell us to be wreckless with safety. He doesn't tell us to do things that endanger us.

And of course you CAN stop people who want to shoot. When there is a decrease in gun violence due to gun laws, it's becausea gun laws stopped some people

That's assuming that the "gun law" is what stopped those people.

rambot said:
Why call a gun law a "punishment"? It's not.

When it causes law-abiding citizens to become instant criminals by making their lawfully purchased items into contraband, it's punishing the law-abiding.

durangodawood · Sep 3, 2025

Aldebaran said:
Ok, then have law-abiding citizens around who will make it difficult for a mass shooter by being able to stop him. It's more difficult to go on a shooting spree when your targets are shooting back. That's most likely why mass shooters choose schools so often.

There are ways that you would approve of, and ways you wouldnt.

I'm just making the point that certainty of stopping all gun murders is an absurd standard for any proposal.

Aldebaran · Sep 3, 2025

durangodawood said:
There are ways that you would approve of, and ways you wouldnt.

I'm just making the point that certainty of stopping all gun murders is an absurd standard for any proposal.

Correct. You're not going to stop them all.

durangodawood · Sep 3, 2025

Aldebaran said:
....When it causes law-abiding citizens to become instant criminals by making their lawfully purchased items into contraband, it's punishing the law-abiding.

Well obviously we wouldnt write the law like that. There would be some period of time when you could turn in the gun, for cash probably. No one becomes "instant criminals".

Mass Shooting at Annunciation Catholic Church/School in Minneapolis

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