[Florida] has the highest number of Obamacare enrollees in the country, and millions of low- and middle-income residents have used the subsidies to afford health coverage since their creation in 2021. Florida, an epicenter of the MAGA movement, also has a disproportionately large number of small business owners and employees who are heavily dependent on the tax credits.
Not a single Republican voted in favor of creating the subsidies when then-President Joe Biden pushed them through, but the reliance of Sunshine State residents on them could give GOP representatives and senators cause to change their minds. Insurers, hospitals and business groups are mobilizing to push them on the issue. Polls show voters are likely to react poorly to skyrocketing insurance premiums, especially when combined with cuts to Medicaid and the ACA that Republicans enacted this summer.
Insurers are already submitting rate filings for 2026 to state regulators, and their median national proposed rate increase is an 11-percentage-point jump over last year, as some insurers factor in the expiration of the subsidies,
according to a KFF analysis.
However, some beneficiaries will be hit much harder than others, depending on the size of the subsidy they receive. For instance, a low-income enrollee making 166 percent of the federal poverty level, or about $26,000, annually, ... would see a spike of 573 percent to their premiums for a silver tier plan
KFF gave an example of a 45-year-old making 432 percent of the poverty level who would see a premium increase of $941 a month.
About 88 percent of small business owners and self-employed and part-time workers in Florida depend upon ACA premium tax credits, according to Florida Blue, the largest Obamacare insurer in the state. Last year, Floridians received about $2.1 billion in enhanced subsidies, according to KFF.