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Trump’s immigration policies are putting the safety of American citizens at the forefront, where it should have been all along.

eclipsenow

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The chart in my post shows homicides by illegal aliens at 3 in 2020 vs 60 in 2021 & 2022. Border enforcement dropped homicides by illegal aliens increased dramatically. Homicides by illegals fell to 29 in 2023 & 24. Border enforcement seems to be proportionally reducing illegal alien crime rates across the board in 2025 although this is only 7 months in of course.
I don't have time to verify your claims here - but I will just point out what they are missing.
Comparisons with native born Americans.
Here's some data that does that!


  • U.S.-born citizens commit violent crimes at higher rates per capita than both immigrants and undocumented immigrants.
  • Immigrants, regardless of legal status, generally exhibit lower violent crime rates compared to native-born citizens.
  • Socioeconomic and legal factors significantly influence the likelihood of committing violent crimes among different populations.

And this...

A new Cato Institute study further refutes claims that illegal migration is somehow causing a crime wave.​

Ilya Somin | 4.27.2025 4:29 PM​
Claims that illegal immigration is causing a crime wave are ubiquitous on the political right, and likely helped Trump win the 2024 election. But social science studies consistently show that immigrants - including illegal ones - actually have much lower crimes than native-born Americans. A new analysis by my Cato Institute colleague Alex Nowrasteh and political scientist Michelangelo Landgrave is the most thorough and up-to-date assessment yet.​
Alex summarizes their findings here:​
Our consistent finding is that legal immigrants have the lowest incarceration rates, followed by illegal immigrants, and that native-born Americans have the highest. Illegal immigrants are half as likely to be incarcerated as native-born Americans, and legal immigrants are 74 percent less likely to be incarcerated….​

And this...


Data is clear that immigrants don’t increase crime in the United States, expert says​

Donald Trump has staked his deportation plan on claims that migrants are bringing crime to the U.S. A criminologist says the data consistently indicates otherwise.​
“There’s absolutely no evidence –– none whatsoever –– that that’s what’s happening on this unprecedented level,” Stowell says. “Not only is crime not going up, it’s not even remaining static. It’s continuing this downward trend as immigration continues to grow.”​
National crime rates peaked in the 1980s, but between 1980 and 1990 it dropped by 30.8% and since then has fallen dramatically year over year, Stowell notes. In fact, almost every major form of crime, from violent crime to property crime, has decreased in that time period. It’s not just a historical trend either: Between 2023 and 2024, violent crime fell by 10.3%.​
In that same time period, the immigrant population in the U.S. has skyrocketed. In 1980, the foreign-born population in the U.S. accounted for only 6.2%; it hit 15.6% in 2024.​
“When people say crime is on the rise, it’s among the safest times to have ever been in America, and it also corresponds to a time when we’ve seen an unprecedented influx of foreign-born individuals,” Stowell says.​
Stowell says that if the claims that criminal migrants are driving an increase in violent crime were true, “it would bear out in the statistics. It would have to, especially with violent crimes.”​
But, in most cases, immigrants not only don’t increase crime in communities, their presence decreases crime. The relationship between crime and immigrants is near universal across the country, Stowell says: In communities with more immigrants, crime rates, specifically homicide rates, are lower.

And this...

September 28, 20244:17 AM GMT+10Updated September 28, 2024
There is no evidence to suggest undocumented immigrants are responsible for 4,000 U.S. deaths every year, contrary to social media posts sharing the unsubstantiated statistic.​
The social media graphic, opens new tab contains statistics comparing the alleged deaths by undocumented immigrants to the number of people killed by rifles.​
Reuters Image
Reuters Image​
“Less than 500 people a year are killed by rifles… let’s ban them! Over 4,000 people a year are killed by illegals... let’s give them $2,200 a month taxpayer assistance, register them to vote in our elections and keep the border wide open to invite more of them into our country,” reads the graphic.​
The rifle figure is somewhat true, as fewer than 500 murders were committed yearly with rifles from 2019 to 2021 according to the FBI’s latest annual figures, opens new tab, but the figure rose to 556 in 2022 and 511 in 2023 (See “Crime in the United States Annual Reports,” click “Expanded Homicide Tables” and open “Table 8”). The number of homicides committed using all types of firearms was 13,529 in 2023, according to the report.​
There is no evidence for the “4,000” figure, however. Studies and estimates by academics and think tanks show undocumented immigrants commit crimes at a lower rate than U.S.-born individuals.​

NO NATIONAL STATISTIC​

There is no nationwide data on crimes committed specifically by undocumented immigrants, but research shows they do not commit crimes at a higher rate than native-born Americans.​
“We know of no national statistics on the numbers of deaths committed by unauthorized immigrants,” Michelle Mittelstadt, communications director of the Migration Policy Institute think tank, said in an email.​
Despite the lack of official data, there is significant research demonstrating “unauthorized immigrants commit crimes at lower rates than the U.S. born,” Mittelstadt said.​
Texas is the only state that logs immigration status in its arrest records, and several studies use data from the Texas Department of Public Safety to examine criminality among immigrants in the U.S. illegally.​

TEXAS DATA​

Two studies found that undocumented immigrants in Texas commit homicide at significantly lower rates than their U.S.-born counterparts.​
A June 2024 analysis, opens new tab by the libertarian think tank Cato Institute’s Alex Nowrasteh found that, for the years 2013-2022, the homicide conviction rate in Texas for “illegal immigrants” was 2.2 per 100,000, while that of native-born Americans was 3.0 per 100,000.​
For example, in 2022, undocumented immigrants made up about 7.1% of the Texas population and accounted for 67, or 5%, of the 1,336 people, opens new tab convicted of homicide.​
That same year, 1,209, or 90.5%, of people convicted of homicide were native-born Americans, who made up 82.5% of the population, the analysis said.​
“I’ve seen zero evidence for illegal immigrants killing 4,000 people a year,” Nowrasteh said in an email. “I've never seen that number defended by anybody spreading it.”​
Similarly, a 2020 study, opens new tab published in the peer-reviewed Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences journal found that undocumented immigrants were less than half as likely to be arrested for homicide than U.S.-born citizens, based on Texas data.​
The study, by Michael Light, sociology professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, and two other researchers, found the arrest rate, opens new tab for homicide was 1.9 per 100,000 people among undocumented immigrants and 4.8 per 100,000 among U.S.-born citizens from 2012 to 2018.​

IMPLAUSIBLE STATISTIC​

The social media graphic’s assertion that undocumented immigrants kill 4,000 people per year is unlikely even when taken at face value, Light said in an email.​
“Put simply, the 4000 figure is implausibly large given what we currently know,” he said.​
When applying the figure by using the Pew Research Center’s latest estimates of 11 million, opens new tab “unauthorized immigrants” in the U.S. in 2022, the homicide rate would be 36.4 per 100,000 people.​
“This would be greater than a six-fold higher homicide rate than the overall homicide rate,” Light said. The murder rate in the U.S. in 2023 was 5.7 per 100,000 people in 2023, according to the FBI’s annual report on crime statistics released on Monday.​

VERDICT​

No evidence. There is no evidence that 4,000 people are killed by undocumented immigrants every year.​
This article was produced by the Reuters Fact Check team. Read more about our fact-checking work.​
 
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The Barbarian

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You were trashing red states in general
No, I just pointed out that cities tend to have more crime in red states. It's just a fact.
I was saying large metro blue cities drag up the homicide rates in red states just like in blue states.
Not quite just like. As you have seen urban areas in red states tend to have more crime than urban areas in blue states. There are some exceptions, like El Paso, TX. which has a very low crime rate, due to the high number of illegal aliens there.

The chart in my post
Has no link or cited source. I think I know why. There's a lot of problems with the numbers
  • U.S. has about 22,380 homicides a year.
  • About 7% of the US is comprised of non-citizens, legally here or not.
  • So, you'd expect, if they were as peaceful as citizens, that they'd commit about 1,636 homicides.
  • Yet a bad year, according to your table, shows them committing 62 homicides, about 1/26 of the expected amount
Now it is true that aliens tend to be more law-abiding than native-born Americans, but I doubt very much if they are that much more law-abiding.
 
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Lukaris

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I don't have time to verify your claims here - but I will just point out what they are missing.
Comparisons with native born Americans.
Here's some data that does that!


  • U.S.-born citizens commit violent crimes at higher rates per capita than both immigrants and undocumented immigrants.
  • Immigrants, regardless of legal status, generally exhibit lower violent crime rates compared to native-born citizens.
  • Socioeconomic and legal factors significantly influence the likelihood of committing violent crimes among different populations.
And this...

A new Cato Institute study further refutes claims that illegal migration is somehow causing a crime wave.​

Ilya Somin | 4.27.2025 4:29 PM​
Claims that illegal immigration is causing a crime wave are ubiquitous on the political right, and likely helped Trump win the 2024 election. But social science studies consistently show that immigrants - including illegal ones - actually have much lower crimes than native-born Americans. A new analysis by my Cato Institute colleague Alex Nowrasteh and political scientist Michelangelo Landgrave is the most thorough and up-to-date assessment yet.​
Alex summarizes their findings here:​


And this...


Data is clear that immigrants don’t increase crime in the United States, expert says​

Donald Trump has staked his deportation plan on claims that migrants are bringing crime to the U.S. A criminologist says the data consistently indicates otherwise.​
“There’s absolutely no evidence –– none whatsoever –– that that’s what’s happening on this unprecedented level,” Stowell says. “Not only is crime not going up, it’s not even remaining static. It’s continuing this downward trend as immigration continues to grow.”​
National crime rates peaked in the 1980s, but between 1980 and 1990 it dropped by 30.8% and since then has fallen dramatically year over year, Stowell notes. In fact, almost every major form of crime, from violent crime to property crime, has decreased in that time period. It’s not just a historical trend either: Between 2023 and 2024, violent crime fell by 10.3%.​
In that same time period, the immigrant population in the U.S. has skyrocketed. In 1980, the foreign-born population in the U.S. accounted for only 6.2%; it hit 15.6% in 2024.​
“When people say crime is on the rise, it’s among the safest times to have ever been in America, and it also corresponds to a time when we’ve seen an unprecedented influx of foreign-born individuals,” Stowell says.​
Stowell says that if the claims that criminal migrants are driving an increase in violent crime were true, “it would bear out in the statistics. It would have to, especially with violent crimes.”​
But, in most cases, immigrants not only don’t increase crime in communities, their presence decreases crime. The relationship between crime and immigrants is near universal across the country, Stowell says: In communities with more immigrants, crime rates, specifically homicide rates, are lower.​

And this...

September 28, 20244:17 AM GMT+10Updated September 28, 2024
There is no evidence to suggest undocumented immigrants are responsible for 4,000 U.S. deaths every year, contrary to social media posts sharing the unsubstantiated statistic.​
The social media graphic, opens new tab contains statistics comparing the alleged deaths by undocumented immigrants to the number of people killed by rifles.​
Reuters Image
Reuters Image​
“Less than 500 people a year are killed by rifles… let’s ban them! Over 4,000 people a year are killed by illegals... let’s give them $2,200 a month taxpayer assistance, register them to vote in our elections and keep the border wide open to invite more of them into our country,” reads the graphic.​
The rifle figure is somewhat true, as fewer than 500 murders were committed yearly with rifles from 2019 to 2021 according to the FBI’s latest annual figures, opens new tab, but the figure rose to 556 in 2022 and 511 in 2023 (See “Crime in the United States Annual Reports,” click “Expanded Homicide Tables” and open “Table 8”). The number of homicides committed using all types of firearms was 13,529 in 2023, according to the report.​
There is no evidence for the “4,000” figure, however. Studies and estimates by academics and think tanks show undocumented immigrants commit crimes at a lower rate than U.S.-born individuals.​

NO NATIONAL STATISTIC​

There is no nationwide data on crimes committed specifically by undocumented immigrants, but research shows they do not commit crimes at a higher rate than native-born Americans.​
“We know of no national statistics on the numbers of deaths committed by unauthorized immigrants,” Michelle Mittelstadt, communications director of the Migration Policy Institute think tank, said in an email.​
Despite the lack of official data, there is significant research demonstrating “unauthorized immigrants commit crimes at lower rates than the U.S. born,” Mittelstadt said.​
Texas is the only state that logs immigration status in its arrest records, and several studies use data from the Texas Department of Public Safety to examine criminality among immigrants in the U.S. illegally.​

TEXAS DATA​

Two studies found that undocumented immigrants in Texas commit homicide at significantly lower rates than their U.S.-born counterparts.​
A June 2024 analysis, opens new tab by the libertarian think tank Cato Institute’s Alex Nowrasteh found that, for the years 2013-2022, the homicide conviction rate in Texas for “illegal immigrants” was 2.2 per 100,000, while that of native-born Americans was 3.0 per 100,000.​
For example, in 2022, undocumented immigrants made up about 7.1% of the Texas population and accounted for 67, or 5%, of the 1,336 people, opens new tab convicted of homicide.​
That same year, 1,209, or 90.5%, of people convicted of homicide were native-born Americans, who made up 82.5% of the population, the analysis said.​
“I’ve seen zero evidence for illegal immigrants killing 4,000 people a year,” Nowrasteh said in an email. “I've never seen that number defended by anybody spreading it.”​
Similarly, a 2020 study, opens new tab published in the peer-reviewed Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences journal found that undocumented immigrants were less than half as likely to be arrested for homicide than U.S.-born citizens, based on Texas data.​
The study, by Michael Light, sociology professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, and two other researchers, found the arrest rate, opens new tab for homicide was 1.9 per 100,000 people among undocumented immigrants and 4.8 per 100,000 among U.S.-born citizens from 2012 to 2018.​

IMPLAUSIBLE STATISTIC​

The social media graphic’s assertion that undocumented immigrants kill 4,000 people per year is unlikely even when taken at face value, Light said in an email.​
“Put simply, the 4000 figure is implausibly large given what we currently know,” he said.​
When applying the figure by using the Pew Research Center’s latest estimates of 11 million, opens new tab “unauthorized immigrants” in the U.S. in 2022, the homicide rate would be 36.4 per 100,000 people.​
“This would be greater than a six-fold higher homicide rate than the overall homicide rate,” Light said. The murder rate in the U.S. in 2023 was 5.7 per 100,000 people in 2023, according to the FBI’s annual report on crime statistics released on Monday.​

VERDICT​

No evidence. There is no evidence that 4,000 people are killed by undocumented immigrants every year.​
This article was produced by the Reuters Fact Check team. Read more about our fact-checking work.​
Do they lump illegal and legal immigrants into one category? The stats I referred to amounted to about 200 homicides committed over several years by illegal ( not legal) immigrants. I noted that 3 homicides by illegal immigrants occurred in 2020 vs 60 in 2021. I don’t care how minuscule that seems; to me it is a red flag of a cottage industry that must be shut down. I am unaware of any figure of 4,000 annual homicides by illegal migrants.


You cite a Texas statistic of a conviction rate of 2.2 per 100,000 people for illegal migrants vs 3.0 per 100,000 for local citizens. A big thing is made about the locals accounting for 20 times more homicides. Well your own stats say that illegal migrants are only 7% of the population. If their demographic rises, collective homicides will rise a lot also since their homicide rate per person is less than 30% different the locals.

What is more confusing is that your own stats seem to dwarf whatever I cited to support my viewpoint.
 
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The Barbarian

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You cite a Texas statistic of a conviction rate of 2.2 per 100,000 people for illegal migrants vs 3.0 per 100,000 for local citizens. A big thing is made about the locals accounting for 20 times more homicides. Well your own stats say that illegal migrants are only 7% of the population. If their demographic rises, collective homicides will rise a lot also since their homicide rate per person is less than 30% different the locals.
It's just that the homicide rate will decline, due to the influx of aliens. As you learned, that's why El Paso, TX has such a low crime rate. It's safer, because there are many illegal aliens living there.

I think the issue is understanding the difference between numbers of crimes and crime rate. For example, East St. Louis, Illinois has fewer homicides than Chicago, but it has a much higher homicide rate. Do you see the difference?
 
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eclipsenow

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Do they lump illegal and legal immigrants into one category?
Why are you asking this question as if the articles do not explain at several points what they are talking about?
I suggest going back and rereading them.
It's quite clear.
Illegals commit less crime than native-born.



to me it is a red flag of a cottage industry that must be shut down.
To you. Not to the criminal experts. Not to the economic experts.
You are complaining about a river of gold pouring into your country!


You cite a Texas statistic of a conviction rate of 2.2 per 100,000 people for illegal migrants vs 3.0 per 100,000 for local citizens. A big thing is made about the locals accounting for 20 times more homicides. Well your own stats say that illegal migrants are only 7% of the population.
"For example, in 2022, undocumented immigrants made up about 7.1% of the Texas population and accounted for 67, or 5%, of the 1,336 people, convicted of homicide. That same year, 1,209, or 90.5%, of people convicted of homicide were native-born Americans, who made up 82.5% of the population, the analysis said.



If their demographic rises, collective homicides will rise a lot also since their homicide rate per person is less than 30% different the locals.
Yes. Human beings do bad things to each other - more human beings means more GDP - but also means more bad things.
Your point?

Illegal immigrants are scared of doing anything to draw attention to themselves.

They lay low.
They obey the law.
More than the average native born!
These are statistical facts you are trying to dodge - but you have not dodged them.

But just tell yourself they're "Eating the dogs" and grab a cookie.
You'll soon forget all about this nasty "data" business.
 
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The Barbarian

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Has no link or cited source. I think I know why. There's a lot of problems with the numbers

  • U.S. has about 22,380 homicides a year.
  • About 7% of the US is comprised of non-citizens, legally here or not.
  • So, you'd expect, if they were as peaceful as citizens, that they'd commit about 1,636 homicides.
  • Yet a bad year, according to your table, shows them committing 62 homicides, about 1/26 of the expected amount
Now it is true that aliens tend to be more law-abiding than native-born Americans, but I doubt very much if they are that much more law-abiding.
If the total homicides by non-citizens in America were only 62 in given year, that would be astonishing. I'm guessing there's something important missing here...

Ah, these are numbers of people caught by border patrol, trying to enter who had convictions prior to being caught on entry. So that doesn't measure at all what you proposed to measure. Look at the headings. For whatever reason, it appears that the Border Patrol got better at catching those people after 2020. This really has nothing to do with the number of aliens who commit homicides after entering the United States.
 
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eclipsenow

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Has no link or cited source. I think I know why. There's a lot of problems with the numbers

  • U.S. has about 22,380 homicides a year.
  • About 7% of the US is comprised of non-citizens, legally here or not.
  • So, you'd expect, if they were as peaceful as citizens, that they'd commit about 1,636 homicides.
  • Yet a bad year, according to your table, shows them committing 62 homicides, about 1/26 of the expected amount
Now it is true that aliens tend to be more law-abiding than native-born Americans, but I doubt very much if they are that much more law-abiding.

If the total homicides by non-citizens in America were only 62 in given year, that would be astonishing. I'm guessing there's something important missing here...

Ah, these are numbers of people caught by border patrol, trying to enter who had convictions prior to being caught on entry. So that doesn't measure at all what you proposed to measure. Look at the headings. For whatever reason, it appears that the Border Patrol got better at catching those people after 2020. This really has nothing to do with the number of aliens who commit homicides after entering the United States.
I'm glad you asked for the source! That's amazing.
It's also clear! EG:

Arrests of Individuals with Criminal Convictions​

The term “criminal aliens” refers to individuals who have been convicted of one or more crimes, whether in the United States or abroad, prior to interdiction by the U.S. Border Patrol; it does not include convictions for conduct that is not deemed criminal by the United States. Arrests of criminal aliens are a subset of total apprehensions by U.S. Border Patrol.​

Not only this - but the 62 itself is cherry-picked from the broader data. But I guess we can't go quoting those pesky years of 2023 and 2024 - might give the wrong impression about these illegals! ;)

Homicides.png
 
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Lukaris

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that's why El Paso, TX has such a low crime rate. It's safer, because there are many illegal aliens living there

Things got worse when the borders were neglected:



So, I initially cited figures that are actually on the low side. Digging deeper into figures just for the state of Texas ( one of the few states that actually provides reliable stats on this). We get pretty high figures from the community that is less likely to commit crimes:


Between June 1, 2011, and July 31, 2025, these 329,000 illegal noncitizens were charged with more than 581,000 criminal offenses which included arrests for 1,075 homicide charges; 75,743 assault charges; 10,352 burglary charges; 67,981 drug charges; 1,450 kidnapping charges; 29,597 theft charges; 45,633 obstructing police charges; 3,320 robbery charges; 7,430 sexual assault charges; 8,437 sexual offense charges; and 7,313 weapon charges. DPS criminal history records reflect those criminal charges have thus far resulted in over 216,000 convictions including 554 homicide convictions; 27,981 assault convictions; 5,324 burglary convictions; 27,895 drug convictions; 423 kidnapping convictions; 11,193 theft convictions; 17,665 obstructing police convictions; 1,915 robbery convictions; 3,658 sexual assault convictions; 3,832 sexual offense convictions; and 2,370 weapon convictions.




So this is in addition to the crimes committed by US citizens of course. Of course law abiding US citizens are victims of crimes committed by all criminals,the solution proposed by the wise thinkers in this thread is to deport all Americans from their nation & replace them with non citizens. After all, the crime rate will be lower. Oh, I know it is just a glib hypothetical from the wise ones, but who knows?

One more add on:


 
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The Barbarian

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El Paso crime increased in 2023 despite nationwide drops
Well, let's take a look:

Crime has increased in El Paso the past two years, after three decades of mostly sharp declines. The last time El Paso had consecutive years of increasing crime was 1995 and 1996, according to FBI data.

Despite the increases the past two years, El Paso still had the lowest crime rate among cities with a population of more than 500,000 that reported data to the FBI, and has long been recognized as one of the safest cities in the nation.


Which, as you learned, is due to the high percentage of illegal aliens in the city. That drives crime rates down.

Things got worse when the borders were neglected:
The data table you cited shows exactly the opposite; it shows that the Border patrol in those years was much more effectively intercepting criminals at the border. Go back and see for yourself.
 
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The Barbarian

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We get pretty high figures from the community that is less likely to commit crimes:
Well, let's see what the data say...
1756246051339.jpeg

According to your data source, illegal immigrants are about half as likely to commit crimes as are native-born Americans. That's still pretty impressive, although not as good as the original numbers you gave us.
 

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Lukaris

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Better policing in blue cities would reduce domestic crime overall and their sanctuary policies perpetuate crime. There is much being said about crime rates dropping in major cities but the truth seems hard to determine.

A major example is with Baltimore, MD which has been a major showcase for falling crime rates. However:










Illegal migrants commit less crime is the mantra. They still commit their fair share and the legal migrants rival citizen criminals. I guess this is some sort of bonus to domestic crime.
 
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The Barbarian

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Better policing in blue cities would reduce domestic crime overall and their sanctuary policies perpetuate crime.
A better solution would be for red states to see what blue states are doing to keep crime lower in their cities than in red state cities. It's a very significant difference:

2 blue state cities, 5 red state cities, and 3 purple state cities on the list of ten most dangerous cities in the U.S.
 
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The Barbarian

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A major example is with Baltimore, MD which has been a major showcase for falling crime rates. However:
There are local exceptions. Baltimore is a blue state city with higher crime rates. El Paso is a red state city with low crime rates (albeit mostly because of a very high number of illegal aliens therein).
 
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Illegal migrants commit less crime is the mantra. They still commit their fair share and the legal migrants rival citizen criminals. I guess this is some sort of bonus to domestic crime.

No, they literally commit less than their "fare share". That's how those statistics work.
 
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Cities with highest total crime rate (per 100,000), 2024​

RankCityTotal crime rate per 100,000Difference from national rate
1Memphis, Tennessee9,400.3+343.6%
2Portland, Oregon6,246.4+194.8%
3Detroit, Michigan6,086.6+187.2%
4Seattle, Washington5,782.7+172.9%
5Baltimore, Maryland5,763.2+172.0%
6Denver, Colorado5,754.6+171.5%
7Nashville, Tennessee5,633.6+165.8%
8Philadelphia, Pennsylvania5,456.9+157.5%
9Houston, Texas5,441.6+156.8%
10San Antonio, Texas5,217.8+146.2%


The mayors are all democrats except for one left leaning independent ( & former democrat).

 
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