Parcels No Longer Being Shipped to USA

DaisyDay · Sunday at 1:45 PM

More fallout from the trade wars, this time because every package is subject to varying tariffs.

Postal services in India, Europe. U.K. to suspend shipment of packages to U.S. over import tariffs

Multiple postal services, including in India and around Europe, say they are suspending the shipment of many packages to the United States amid a lack of clarity over new import duties.

www.cbsnews.com

Postal services in Germany, Denmark, Sweden and Italy said they will stop shipping most merchandise to the U.S. effective immediately. France and Austria will follow Monday, and the United Kingdom Tuesday.

India's government also said the country will temporarily suspend postal deliveries to the United States starting Monday, except letters, documents and gift items of up to $100 in value, the AFP reported.

Under a decree signed by President Donald Trump last month, international goods that were previously exempt from U.S. tariffs — those valued under $800 — will be subject to import duties from Aug. 29. Letters, books, gifts and small parcels worth less than $100 will continue to be exempt.

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Hopefully, Trump will chicken out as usual when the blow back on this causes disruptions.

Aryeh Jay · Sunday at 2:12 PM

DaisyDay said:
More fallout from the trade wars, this time because every package is subject to varying tariffs.

Postal services in India, Europe. U.K. to suspend shipment of packages to U.S. over import tariffs

Multiple postal services, including in India and around Europe, say they are suspending the shipment of many packages to the United States amid a lack of clarity over new import duties.

www.cbsnews.com

Postal services in Germany, Denmark, Sweden and Italy said they will stop shipping most merchandise to the U.S. effective immediately. France and Austria will follow Monday, and the United Kingdom Tuesday.

India's government also said the country will temporarily suspend postal deliveries to the United States starting Monday, except letters, documents and gift items of up to $100 in value, the AFP reported.

Under a decree signed by President Donald Trump last month, international goods that were previously exempt from U.S. tariffs — those valued under $800 — will be subject to import duties from Aug. 29. Letters, books, gifts and small parcels worth less than $100 will continue to be exempt.
[/url]

Hopefully, Trump will chicken out as usual when the blow back on this causes disruptions.

Will this include mail order brides as well?

DaisyDay · Sunday at 2:25 PM

Aryeh Jay said:
Will this include mail order brides as well?

No, as they go for far more than $800, which was the de minimus.

CRAZY_CAT_WOMAN · Sunday at 4:04 PM

DaisyDay said:
More fallout from the trade wars, this time because every package is subject to varying tariffs.

Postal services in India, Europe. U.K. to suspend shipment of packages to U.S. over import tariffs

Multiple postal services, including in India and around Europe, say they are suspending the shipment of many packages to the United States amid a lack of clarity over new import duties.

www.cbsnews.com

Postal services in Germany, Denmark, Sweden and Italy said they will stop shipping most merchandise to the U.S. effective immediately. France and Austria will follow Monday, and the United Kingdom Tuesday.

India's government also said the country will temporarily suspend postal deliveries to the United States starting Monday, except letters, documents and gift items of up to $100 in value, the AFP reported.

Under a decree signed by President Donald Trump last month, international goods that were previously exempt from U.S. tariffs — those valued under $800 — will be subject to import duties from Aug. 29. Letters, books, gifts and small parcels worth less than $100 will continue to be exempt.
[/url]

Hopefully, Trump will chicken out as usual when the blow back on this causes disruptions.

I can't blame them.

Pommer · Sunday at 4:19 PM

DaisyDay said:
More fallout from the trade wars, this time because every package is subject to varying tariffs.

Postal services in India, Europe. U.K. to suspend shipment of packages to U.S. over import tariffs

Multiple postal services, including in India and around Europe, say they are suspending the shipment of many packages to the United States amid a lack of clarity over new import duties.

www.cbsnews.com

Postal services in Germany, Denmark, Sweden and Italy said they will stop shipping most merchandise to the U.S. effective immediately. France and Austria will follow Monday, and the United Kingdom Tuesday.

India's government also said the country will temporarily suspend postal deliveries to the United States starting Monday, except letters, documents and gift items of up to $100 in value, the AFP reported.

Under a decree signed by President Donald Trump last month, international goods that were previously exempt from U.S. tariffs — those valued under $800 — will be subject to import duties from Aug. 29. Letters, books, gifts and small parcels worth less than $100 will continue to be exempt.
[/url]

Hopefully, Trump will chicken out as usual when the blow back on this causes disruptions.

Boomers grew up during the time when we had to wait “four to six weeks” after sending in our “box tops” (for whatever gewgaw we’d sent away for), anyways. What’s old is new again!

DaisyDay · Sunday at 4:49 PM

Pommer said:
Boomers grew up during the time when we had to wait “four to six weeks” after sending in our “box tops” (for whatever gewgaw we’d sent away for), anyways. What’s old is new again!

How dismal.

But ever think what it was like at the end of the Weimar Republic? Seems like it would've been a great place in its heyday.

ThatRobGuy · Monday at 3:29 PM

"will temporarily suspend postal deliveries to the United States starting Monday, except letters, documents and gift items of up to $100 in value"

Any reliable data out there any how much of the usual international postal traffic falls into each bucket? I did a cursory search but couldn't find anything concrete.

Meaning, what percentage of overseas postal traffic is:
Letters, and parcels under $100
vs.
Parcels over $100

If it's a case where the former is the majority, then this may be a "send a message" sort of thing, but that doesn't impact "business as usual" all that much.

Also, we'll see how long those countries hold out. If it's a case where the latter is the lion's share, then it's going to hurt their e-commerce businesses in ways that their smaller entrepreneurs are probably going to resent at a certain point.

Example: A web-based handmade jewelry seller out of the UK who makes bracelets and necklaces and sells them for $150.

According to Forbes, when they reviewed UK sellers and cross referenced PayPal data, they estimated that anywhere from 28% to 64% (depending on the online business type) of their revenue comes from US buyers.

If you asked that handmade jewelry seller
"Do you want to lose half of your sales to help us prove a point to the Orange man across the pond?" or "Would you rather be able to go back to selling them to the US, and pay a 15% tax on each $150 unit you ship?"

After the novelty of "sticking it to Trump" wears off, at a certain point, I would imagine many would prefer the latter. (especially considering they can just bump their price by a few bucks to offset.

Whether the international community likes it it or not, the fact remains that the US is a massive customer base (who have a decent amount of money, and who like to buy a lot of stuff), and very few business (big or small) can afford to completely cut the US market out of their customer portfolio for very long.

Tropical Wilds · Monday at 3:38 PM

Everybody I shop with for various supplies from the U.K. and Japan have suspended service and it’s just obnoxious. I hope he will chicken out fast.

wing2000 · Monday at 3:40 PM

DaisyDay said:
Postal services in Germany, Denmark, Sweden and Italy said they will stop shipping most merchandise to the U.S. effective immediately. France and Austria will follow Monday, and the United Kingdom Tuesday.

Recall that Trump issued a similar order earlier this year, only to revoke it weeks later as US Customs was not ready to implement it. We'll see if they are ready this time.

As for the various post offices around the world, they likely need time to implement updates to their systems...and it sounds like the U.S. government requirements are still not complete. Post Offices and other shipping companies would be wise to shut down these shipments until our government get's it act together:

"Key questions remain unresolved, particularly regarding how and by whom customs duties will be collected in the future, what additional data will be required, and how the data transmission to the U.S. Customs and Border Protection will be carried out," DHL, the largest shipping provider in Europe, said in a statement.

DaisyDay · Monday at 5:00 PM

wing2000 said:
Recall that Trump issued a similar order earlier this year, only to revoke it weeks later as US Customs was not ready to implement it. We'll see if they are ready this time.

As for the various post offices around the world, they likely need time to implement updates to their systems...and it sounds like the U.S. government requirements are still not complete. Post Offices and other shipping companies would be wise to shut down these shipments until our government get's it act together:

"Key questions remain unresolved, particularly regarding how and by whom customs duties will be collected in the future, what additional data will be required, and how the data transmission to the U.S. Customs and Border Protection will be carried out," DHL, the largest shipping provider in Europe, said in a statement.

It's not just the post offices, but all shipping departments of any company that [used to] ship stuff here.

ThatRobGuy · Monday at 5:21 PM

DaisyDay said:
It's not just the post offices, but all shipping departments of any company that [used to] ship stuff here.

It'll be a battle of attrition that comes down to a basic numbers game highlighted in my post (Post #7)

The US market is a vital export market for most companies overseas.

Our population is almost as big as the population of the combined entire EU.

How long can they afford to not get that revenue stream in the name of resisting a 15% tariff.

Paying a 15% tariff to retain access to the US market is more fiscally sound for EU countries than a total market exit.

And that pressure will likely come from their manufacturers, and independent online business owners.

Apart from a few very specific region specific products, there's nothing that we can't get elsewhere, meanwhile, they have to try to backfill the sales from losing the US consumer base.

Trogdor the Burninator · Monday at 5:53 PM

ThatRobGuy said:
If you asked that handmade jewelry seller
"Do you want to lose half of your sales to help us prove a point to the Orange man across the pond?" or "Would you rather be able to go back to selling them to the US, and pay a 15% tax on each $150 unit you ship?"

After the novelty of "sticking it to Trump" wears off, at a certain point, I would imagine many would prefer the latter. (especially considering they can just bump their price by a few bucks to offset.

Unfortunately that's not the case. The problem isn't paying a 15% tariff, it's the suspension of de minimis exemptions, meaning paying an $80 handling fee on something worth maybe $40.

And as is usual for Trump, he hasn't bothered to figure out the finer details - such as who pays what to who when, so overseas businesses are in the dark as to how the process works. Hence why a large number of overseas postal services and businesses are suspending shipments to the US.

ThatRobGuy · Monday at 6:19 PM

Trogdor the Burninator said:
Unfortunately that's not the case. The problem isn't paying a 15% tariff, it's the suspension of de minimis exemptions, meaning paying an $80 handling fee on something worth maybe $40.

And as is usual for Trump, he hasn't bothered to figure out the finer details - such as who pays what to who when, so overseas businesses are in the dark as to how the process works. Hence why a large number of overseas postal services and businesses are suspending shipments to the US.

Even when taking those fees into account, are they going to lose more from that, or lose more from not being able to tap into a market with 300 million people who have money, are consumeristic, and like to buy stuff?

If the low-value items (<$100) are exempted...how many low-margin items that are worth more than $100 are getting shipped regularly?

That's an honest question, I've searched several sources and haven't been able to get a solid answer on how many parcels are getting shipping here that are >100 vs. <100.

Gene2memE · Monday at 6:54 PM

ThatRobGuy said:
"will temporarily suspend postal deliveries to the United States starting Monday, except letters, documents and gift items of up to $100 in value"

Any reliable data out there any how much of the usual international postal traffic falls into each bucket? I did a cursory search but couldn't find anything concrete.

Meaning, what percentage of overseas postal traffic is:
Letters, and parcels under $100
vs.
Parcels over $100

Average order value for eCommerce sales is a hard statistic to effectively track, because it varies so much between product categories, time of year and retailer.

Also you'd need to differentiate between mode and mean.

The mean order value for the US is usually given as somewhere between $150 and $200.

The data has a rightward skew though. High value items like laptops, phones, household electronics/white goods and luxury items tend to be ordered in small amounts but have very high average values. This means that 10-15% of orders might account for 40-60% of the value of orders.

The mode order value for eCommerce sales is likely substantially lower than the mean value. Perhaps under 1/2.

For instance, a lot of the large online retailers (Amazon, eBay, Alibaba) have average order values under $50. I remember a stat from a presentation a couple of years back that more than 80% of sales on Amazon were under $30.

DaisyDay · Monday at 7:00 PM

ThatRobGuy said:
It'll be a battle of attrition that comes down to a basic numbers game highlighted in my post (Post #7)

The US market is a vital export market for most companies overseas.

Our population is almost as big as the population of the combined entire EU.

How long can they afford to not get that revenue stream in the name of resisting a 15% tariff.

Paying a 15% tariff to retain access to the US market is more fiscally sound for EU countries than a total market exit.

And that pressure will likely come from their manufacturers, and independent online business owners.

Apart from a few very specific region specific products, there's nothing that we can't get elsewhere, meanwhile, they have to try to backfill the sales from losing the US consumer base.

It's not simply resisting a 15% tariff, it's not knowing what the tariff will be from month to month. If you ship today, what will the tariff be tomorrow?

ThatRobGuy · Monday at 7:42 PM

DaisyDay said:
It's not simply resisting a 15% tariff, it's not knowing what the tariff will be from month to month. If you ship today, what will the tariff be tomorrow?

How high would the tariff need to be before it would cancel out the benefit of doing business with the US market?

Obviously Trump's "spin the tariff wheel" approach isn't conducive to international trade...I don't think any sound economist would suggest otherwise.

But he's been doing this routine for a while now... why would 15% all of the sudden be "the line in the sand"?

For higher values items with bigger margins, the tariffs would have to (arguably) get north of 40% before it became "no longer worth it" to engage with the US market?

For instance, the Biden admin imposed tariffs on lithium ion batteries, semiconductors, and imported aluminum (all of which exceeded 25%)...those foreign industries didn't crumble as a result.

I'll be fair and acknowledge that those measures were meant to combat the effects of Chinese exploitation of cheap labor.

But nonetheless, the basic function of a tariff is either to

A) punish a foreign entity who's done something wrong

B) encourage the consumer base to buy an equivalent product that's made here in our country

Either way, it's a form of protectionism

And the ironic aspect of that is that protectionism is a concept that most people have a love-hate relationship with.

In a purely domestic sense, people abhor it... If Coca Cola exploits a government connection to get more people to buy their product instead of Pepsi, it's considered "crony capitalism", if they do the same to prevent a foreign soda maker from creeping in on their turf in the domestic market, it's considered "protecting American jobs"

wing2000 · Monday at 8:16 PM

DaisyDay said:
It's not just the post offices, but all shipping departments of any company that [used to] ship stuff here.

...they can still use private carriers to ship stuff here. The announcement applied referenced international post offices sending stuff to the US.

Trogdor the Burninator · Tuesday at 5:47 AM

ThatRobGuy said:
Even when taking those fees into account, are they going to lose more from that, or lose more from not being able to tap into a market with 300 million people who have money, are consumeristic, and like to buy stuff?

If the low-value items (<$100) are exempted...how many low-margin items that are worth more than $100 are getting shipped regularly?

That's an honest question, I've searched several sources and haven't been able to get a solid answer on how many parcels are getting shipping here that are >100 vs. <100.

I'm not sure about low value items (though places like Temu built a business model around it) but the previous de minimis exemption was anything below $800. So if you previously bought something worth, say $500, it's now $500 + $80 handling + $75 tariff = $655. Plus the additional cost to the business shipping the item through extra admin.

Which is going to put a lot of people off and reduce volumes for those businesses to make them think twice about selling into the US. Which is of course the whole point - it's a non tariff barrier from a gu who spends a lot of time complaining about non tariff barriers.

DaisyDay · Tuesday at 7:46 AM

wing2000 said:
...they can still use private carriers to ship stuff here. The announcement applied referenced international post offices sending stuff to the US.

Some private companies - DHL - have also suspended shipping to the US.

ThatRobGuy said:
How high would the tariff need to be before it would cancel out the benefit of doing business with the US market?

How would I know? Multiple countries have paused sending to the States, citing uncertain tariffs and the elimination of the de minimus exemption as the reason.

wing2000 · Tuesday at 8:00 AM

DaisyDay said:
Some private companies - DHL - have also suspended shipping to the US.

....DHL Express is still shipping to the US. The Deuteche Post division of DHL has suspended shipments though.

Parcels No Longer Being Shipped to USA

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