Jobs report lousy: Trump shoots the messenger

DaisyDay said:

This is done every quarter. Stats are revised as the new reports come in from various sectors. You've made a bold claim - can you back it up?

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Lukaris said:

I have repeatedly pointed out that as of August 1st, the numbers for Trump could have been argued in his favor & quoted a conservative writer’s opinion on July 31st. The time span for the quarter revision in August 2024 was after Joe dropped out of the race. This quarter revision is up to March 2025 & boldly revised figures in the hundreds of thousands up to the present date in a matter of hours as of August 1st.
Yes, this is my spin but the enormity of hundreds of thousands of sudden revisions is noted by Goldman Sachs.

https://x.com/SullyCNBC/status/1952035275405746235/photo/1

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DaisyDay said:

Matter of hours? The numbers were due to revision on the first of the month and on August 1st, the new tally was posted. They don't post revisions every few minutes, days, or weeks; it is done on a schedule.

Biden dropped out in the middle of the month of July. Are you claiming that the normal jobs revision was not done on August 1, 2024?

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• On August 21, 2024, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the preliminary estimate of the annual benchmark revision to its establishment survey data.
• This revision showed a downward adjustment of 818,000 jobs to total nonfarm employment for March 2024, representing a -0.5% revision. This was the largest downward adjustment since 2009.
• This revision was based on more comprehensive employment counts derived from state unemployment insurance tax records.
• The final benchmark revision, based on complete data, was scheduled to be released in February 2025.

Say it aint so said:

Actually not.

Notice of CPI collection reductions

BLS is reducing sample collection in areas across the country. In April, BLS suspended CPI data collection entirely in Lincoln, NE, and Provo, UT. In June, BLS suspended collection entirely in Buffalo, NY. ​

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Collection reduction and suspension affect both the Commodity and Services survey and the Housing survey. These actions have minimal impact on the overall all-items CPI-U and CPI-W indexes. The actions may increase the volatility of subnational or item-specific indexes. The number of imputed items increased in April due to these actions. BLS makes reductions when current resources can no longer support the collection effort. BLS will continue to evaluate survey operations.​

U.S. data quality has been declining for years. Now Trump’s cutbacks are leading economists to question its figures​

A key federal agency is increasingly publishing less accurate inflation data thanks in part to a hiring freeze issued by the Trump administration in January. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is part of the Labor Department, is increasingly relying on data collection methods that are less accurate than usual and has stopped tracking inflation figures in three U.S. cities.​

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They complain about accuracy, but take steps to make it worse

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Say it aint so said:

This whole thing is being like Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones not liking being on the losing end of a score at Cowboy Stadium, so he fires the Cowboy Stadium scoreboard operator.

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Say it aint so said:

They had one. The next in line is going to have same staffing shortage issues and Trump is going to have the same bad employment numbers as July. Maybe, just maybe the numbers are being impacted by his tariffs, job reductions, and the rise of small business closures.

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ozso said:

I think whatever the case the tourism situation is probably being way over exaggerated, like most everything else. Chicken Little to the max as always.

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Pommer said:

Well, we’ll see in November, won’t we, when the third-quarter numbers come out, huh?

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ozso said:

We'll see how much exaggerating there will be over any dip in the numbers. Even if it's miniscule. I've already seen miniscule numbers made to look big, when the big picture isn't taken into consideration. How many less Canadian visitors we had will be highlighted, whereas if we had more visitors from China, India and Japan etc than last year, that will be ignored.

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Pommer said:

Well, of course, whatever political hay one can make out of stuff…we’re going to do that.
This is all normal back-and-forth they we engage in and continue to talk to one another until something so
BIG comes down the pike to the “frontlines” and we’ll fight about that too.

Has “my side” been caught up in trying to paint everything Trump does as “bad”, or have several factions of my side each made their own claims as to why this (or that) action taken by Trump is “problematic”?

This side is not a monolith and never was, they’re lefties who aren’t at all put out with Trump over tariffs.
Tariffs are a useful tool. It’s safe, legal, and [used to be] rarer*.

*there’s always been tariffs on imports, but never have the tariffs been used to raise money for the treasury and as a cudgel to cajole nations into doing our bidding (if they want their companies to remain “competitive”).

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ozso said:

Sorry but that comes out as a word salad to me.

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Pommer said:

That’s fine, if I wanted to be understood by everyone, I’d simplify my prose.

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Trump’s pick to lead labor stats agency could pause monthly jobs report over accuracy concerns​

essentialsaltes said:

Trump’s pick to lead labor stats agency could pause monthly jobs report over accuracy concerns​

In an Aug. 4 interview with Fox News Digital ahead of Monday’s nomination announcement, Antoni criticized the data behind the monthly jobs report as unreliable and frequently overstated, warning that it misleads key economic decision-makers from Washington to Wall Street.

"Until it is corrected, the BLS should suspend issuing the monthly job reports but keep publishing the more accurate, though less timely, quarterly data," he said, adding, "Major decision-makers from Wall Street to D.C. rely on these numbers, and a lack of confidence in the data has far-reaching consequences."

Hopefully, senators will ask him about this before confirming him.

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