China is winning the trade war Trump started

wing2000 · Aug 5, 2025

ozso said:
Are conditions the same now as they were back in the 1980s?

There are more open markets than in the 1980's.

And there are more Americans who believe in protectionism than open markets, thanks in large part to the blame politics of Donald Trump.

wing2000 · Aug 5, 2025

FAITH-IN-HIM said:
Over half of Vietnamese people earn under $500 USD monthly and can’t afford to purchase American products. Expanding U.S. market access to Vietnam is unlikely to have significant effects, as the trade primarily benefits Vietnam. American consumers will pay about 20% more for Vietnamese goods.

Goods such as furniture, clothing and shoes.

Fantine · Aug 5, 2025

Always in His Presence said:
Already signed a trade agreement

Already signed a trade agreement

already signed a trade agreement - under the EU

They are all dealing with the US and Trump's trade agreements

Here's a breakdown of the U.S. economy by sector as of 2025, based on the latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and economic outlook reports

U.S. Economy by Sector (2025)
1. Technology and Innovation

Key Drivers: AI, cloud computing, cybersecurity

Major Players: Apple, Google, Microsoft

Estimated Market Size: ~$2.5 trillion

Growth Outlook: Strong, driven by digital transformation and innovation

2. Healthcare

Key Drivers: Aging population, telemedicine, precision medicine

Estimated Market Size: ~$2.1 trillion

Growth Outlook: High, with increasing demand for services and innovation

3. Financial Services

Includes: Banking, insurance, investment services

Estimated Market Size: ~$2.8 trillion

Growth Outlook: Stable, with a focus on digital transformation and compliance

4. Renewable Energy

Key Drivers: Solar, wind, hydroelectric power

Growth Rate: CAGR of 12.3% (2022–2025)

Policy Goal: 50% carbon emissions reduction by 2030

5. Retail and E-commerce

Trends: Continued shift to online shopping

Growth Outlook: Strong, especially in logistics and digital platforms

6. Manufacturing and Goods-Producing Industries

Q1 2025 Performance: -2.8% decrease in real value added

Challenges: Global supply chain issues, automation

7. Services-Producing Industries

Q1 2025 Performance: -0.3% decrease in real value added

Includes: Professnal services, hospitality, education

8. Government Sector

Q1 2025 Performance: +2.0% increase in real value added

Role: Infrastructure, public services, defense

You do realize that signing a trade agreement (under duress and coercion, in the case of S. Korea and Japan, because of the American military base presence) doesn't mean that countries won't try to increase trade with one another--and even form trading blocs of their own.

BRICS - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The emerging (and emergent) economic superpowers of China, Russia, India, Brazil, South Africa and more have banded together to challenge the economic powerhouse of the G7 countries. And now, since the US has opted out of fairness and collaboration (and as it seeks to minimize or disentangle itself from NATO and even the UN) they are well-positioned to minimize their economic alliances with us.

It's pretty naive to think that Trump can bluster and bully his way on to the world stage, coercing and threatening other countries into submission, without significant pushback.

But we can change all that in 2028. All it will take is voters with conscience and common sense.

FAITH-IN-HIM · Aug 5, 2025

wing2000 said:
I'll take that bet. If I lose, I'll have lots of company, including every President since the end of WW2. For over 70 years, the United States has pushed the world to lower trade barriers....that is until Donald Trump came along. Somehow, he's convinced a minority of Americans that paying more taxes on that shirt made in Viet Nam is a good thing.

As a free market and free trade globalist, I supported the trade policies of Reagan, H. Bush, W. Bush, McCain, and Romney.

No matter how many times I ask supporters of President Trump's policies why they voted for Reagan, H. Bush, W. Bush, McCain, and Romney, I never get a clear answer.

President Trump's trade policy exactly opposite from those of previous GOP presidents and nominees since Reagan. If President Trump's approach to trade and the use of tariffs is effective, it raises the question of why same voters consistently supported every GOP presidential candidate since Reagan.

MAGA will not answer this simple question. They will use “ hamana-hamana-Hamana” and walk away.

Personally I think they seem unaware whether tariffs or free trade are good or bad, simply supporting any GOP candidate or president without critical evaluation.

GoldenBoy89 · Aug 5, 2025

ozso said:
So far doom and gloom predictions regarding tariffs haven't panned out.

Because they’ve largely been backed off. What happened with the 145% Trump had placed on Chinese goods? If the tariffs are so great why was that immediately brought back down?

FAITH-IN-HIM · Aug 5, 2025

Fantine said:
You do realize that signing a trade agreement (under duress and coercion, in the case of S. Korea and Japan, because of the American military base presence) doesn't mean that countries won't try to increase trade with one another--and even form trading blocs of their own.

BRICS - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The emerging (and emergent) economic superpowers of China, Russia, India, Brazil, South Africa and more have banded together to challenge the economic powerhouse of the G7 countries. And now, since the US has opted out of fairness and collaboration (and as it seeks to minimize or disentangle itself from NATO and even the UN) they are well-positioned to minimize their economic alliances with us.

It's pretty naive to think that Trump can bluster and bully his way on to the world stage, coercing and threatening other countries into submission, without significant pushback.

But we can change all that in 2028. All it will take is voters with conscience and common sense.

Currently, there is no formal new trade agreement with Japan or South Korea. In both nations, parliamentary approval is required before the Prime Minister may sign a trade deal. For the European Union, approval from all 27 countries is necessary for such an agreement.

All of the trade deals President Trump has mentioned are reported to be verbal agreements, which have not yet been documented on paper.

DaisyDay · Aug 5, 2025

ozso said:
The Democrats had better hope it doesn't get rosy considering the usual doom and gloom predictions they're dishing out.

No, Democrats don't need to hope that these policies are not disastrous. If it turns out that Wharton School grad Donald J. Trump is correct about his theory of tariffs being the economic miracle he insists it is, then all Americans will rejoice and bask in the new prosperity.

ozso said:
Or is it that they're backpedaling, like they've done with end of the world climate change predictions, and now saying 'well it won't be all that bad after all'?

Dear, it is that bad after all. The predictions are proving accurate.

DaisyDay · Aug 5, 2025

FAITH-IN-HIM said:
Over half of Vietnamese people earn under $500 USD monthly and can’t afford to purchase American products. Expanding U.S. market access to Vietnam is unlikely to have significant effects, as the trade primarily benefits Vietnam. American consumers will pay about 20% more for Vietnamese goods.

But who cares about the rest of the world?

FAITH-IN-HIM · Aug 5, 2025

DaisyDay said:
But who cares about the rest of the world?

Could you please clarify your question?

DaisyDay · Aug 5, 2025

FAITH-IN-HIM said:
Could you please clarify your question?

Sarcasm. Too much of the time, "America first" comes off as "America only", like American isn't winning unless everyone else loses.

Little Bangladesh has been stuck with a giant 35% tariff even after it agreed to buy some Boeing planes because it also has trade with China. These sort of punitive policies are, as you pointed out with your Vietnam example, devastating to small economies and have real, damaging effects on actual people.

Always in His Presence · Aug 5, 2025

Fantine said:
You do realize that signing a trade agreement (under duress and coercion,

You do realize there is no proof of that, you offered nothing but a biased opinion

Again

FAITH-IN-HIM · Aug 5, 2025

ozso said:
The Democrats had better hope it doesn't get rosy considering the usual doom and gloom predictions they're dishing out. Or is it that they're backpedaling, like they've done with end of the world climate change predictions, and now saying 'well it won't be all that bad after all'?

Democrats and liberals have traditionally supported protectionist trade policies, often expressing reservations about free trade and globalization. Conversely, conservatives—figures such as Ronald Reagan, H. Bush, W. Bush, McCain, Romney, and Paul Ryan—have historically advocated for free trade, free market principles, and globalization.

Anyone predict "doom and gloom" over these tariffs should be the conservative and not liberals. However, it seems that the traditional Bush-Romney conservatives no longer exist, todays conservatives adopted liberal trade policy that conservative fought against last 50 years.

Always in His Presence · Aug 5, 2025

FAITH-IN-HIM said:
Are you sure Japan ,

Yes -
Japan and the United States have finalized a major trade agreement that reshapes tariffs, boosts investment, and signals a new phase of economic cooperation. Here's a breakdown of the deal and what it means:

Tariff Reductions

Auto Tariffs Cut: Japanese car exports to the US will now face a 15% tariff, down from the previously threatened 25–27.5%.
Other Goods: Tariffs on various Japanese goods that were set to rise to 25% have also been capped at 15%.
No Import Caps: Japan secured a win by avoiding volume restrictions on vehicle exports.
Rice & Metals: Japan retains restrictions on rice imports and faces separate 25–50% tariffs on steel and aluminum.

Investment Commitments

$550 Billion Pledge: Japan will invest $550 billion into US supply chains, targeting sectors like:
- Semiconductors
- Electric vehicles
- Energy infrastructure
- Artificial intelligence
- Pharmaceuticals and shipbuilding
Profit Split: The US will retain 90% of the profits from this investment, according to the White House.

Automotive Sector Boost

Japanese automakers like Toyota, Honda, Nissan, and Subaru saw stock surges between 8–16% following the announcement.

Japan will now accept US automotive standards, eliminating additional safety testing requirements for American vehicles.

Market Reaction

Japan's Nikkei Index: Rose over 3.5% on the news.
US Markets: S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones all climbed, reflecting investor optimism.

Global Implications

Economists suggest the 15% tariff cap could become a benchmark for other trade deals, pressuring the EU, China, and others to follow suit before looming August deadlines.
The deal is seen as averting a potential trade war and stabilizing global markets.

️ Political Context

President Trump called it “the largest Deal ever made,” while Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba described it as a “new Golden Era” for bilateral relations.

S. Korea

Yes:
Just days before a steep 25% tariff was set to hit South Korean exports, Seoul and Washington reached a last-minute trade deal that reshapes their economic relationship. Here’s a breakdown of the key elements:

Tariff Terms

15% Tariff Cap: South Korean exports to the US will face a 15% tariff—lower than the threatened 25%, but higher than the previous 10% rate.
No Tariffs on US Goods: American exports to South Korea will enter duty-free, including cars, trucks, and agricultural products.
Avoided Worst-Case Scenario: Analysts say the deal puts South Korea on equal footing with Japan, which also secured a 15% rate.

Investment & Energy Commitments

$350 Billion Investment: South Korea pledged to invest in US-based projects selected by President Trump.
$100 Billion in Energy Purchases: Seoul will buy US liquefied natural gas and other energy products.
Additional Investments Pending: More funding announcements are expected during President Lee Jae-myung’s upcoming visit to the White House.

Industry Impact

Autos & Electronics: South Korea’s major exports—cars, chips, and steel—are protected from higher tariffs, a relief for companies like Hyundai and Samsung.
Market Reaction: The KOSPI index rose modestly, signaling cautious optimism.

️ Political & Strategic Implications

President Lee’s First Major Win: The deal is seen as a political victory for South Korea’s newly elected leader, who took office in June after a snap election.
Strengthened Alliance: Both sides emphasized mutual benefit and deeper industrial cooperation.

FAITH-IN-HIM said:
and EU

US–EU Trade Deal Finalized: Key Details and Reactions

The United States and European Union have reached a sweeping trade agreement that averts a tariff war and reshapes transatlantic commerce. Here's what you need to know:

Tariff Framework

15% Tariff Ceiling: The US will impose a flat 15% tariff on most EU exports, including cars, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals—down from the threatened 30%.
Strategic Exemptions: Aircraft, certain chemicals, generic drugs, and natural resources are exempt from new tariffs.
Steel, Aluminum & Copper: These remain subject to 50% US tariffs, though both sides agreed to establish tariff-rate quotas to ease the burden.
EU Tariff Suspension: Brussels suspended €93 billion in retaliatory tariffs that were set to begin August 7.

Investment & Energy Commitments

$750 Billion in US Energy: The EU will purchase American liquefied natural gas, oil, and nuclear energy over the next three years.
$600 Billion in US Investments: EU companies will invest in US sectors including AI, pharmaceuticals, and infrastructure by 2029.
€40 Billion in AI Chips: The EU will buy US-made artificial intelligence chips.

Regulatory Alignment

Zero-for-Zero Tariffs: On select strategic goods like aircraft and semiconductor equipment.
Digital Trade: No duties on electronic transmissions; both sides will work to reduce digital trade barriers.
Industrial Standards: The EU will accept US auto and industrial standards for the first time.

Market & Political Reaction

Investor Sentiment Drops: Eurozone investor confidence fell sharply, with Germany hit hardest.
Mixed Political Response:
- French PM François Bayrou called it “a dark day” for EU sovereignty.
- Belgian PM Bart De Wever said it’s “a moment of relief, but not of celebration”.
US Commerce Secretary: Called the deal a “historic unlocking” of the EU’s $20 trillion market.

️ Strategic Implications

The deal mirrors recent agreements with Japan and South Korea, suggesting a new US-led trade framework.
EU officials say the agreement restores predictability and safeguards jobs and SMEs across Europe.

FAITH-IN-HIM said:
signed trade agreement?.

yup

FAITH-IN-HIM · Aug 5, 2025

Always in His Presence said:
Yes -
Japan and the United States have finalized a major trade agreement that reshapes tariffs, boosts investment, and signals a new phase of economic cooperation. Here's a breakdown of the deal and what it means:

Tariff Reductions

Auto Tariffs Cut: Japanese car exports to the US will now face a 15% tariff, down from the previously threatened 25–27.5%.

Other Goods: Tariffs on various Japanese goods that were set to rise to 25% have also been capped at 15%.

No Import Caps: Japan secured a win by avoiding volume restrictions on vehicle exports.

Rice & Metals: Japan retains restrictions on rice imports and faces separate 25–50% tariffs on steel and aluminum.

Investment Commitments

$550 Billion Pledge: Japan will invest $550 billion into US supply chains, targeting sectors like:

Semiconductors

Electric vehicles

Energy infrastructure

Artificial intelligence

Pharmaceuticals and shipbuilding

Profit Split: The US will retain 90% of the profits from this investment, according to the White House.

Automotive Sector Boost

Japanese automakers like Toyota, Honda, Nissan, and Subaru saw stock surges between 8–16% following the announcement.

Japan will now accept US automotive standards, eliminating additional safety testing requirements for American vehicles.

Market Reaction

Japan's Nikkei Index: Rose over 3.5% on the news.

US Markets: S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones all climbed, reflecting investor optimism.

Global Implications

Economists suggest the 15% tariff cap could become a benchmark for other trade deals, pressuring the EU, China, and others to follow suit before looming August deadlines.

The deal is seen as averting a potential trade war and stabilizing global markets.

️ Political Context

President Trump called it “the largest Deal ever made,” while Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba described it as a “new Golden Era” for bilateral relations.

S. Korea

Yes:
Just days before a steep 25% tariff was set to hit South Korean exports, Seoul and Washington reached a last-minute trade deal that reshapes their economic relationship. Here’s a breakdown of the key elements:

Tariff Terms

15% Tariff Cap: South Korean exports to the US will face a 15% tariff—lower than the threatened 25%, but higher than the previous 10% rate.

No Tariffs on US Goods: American exports to South Korea will enter duty-free, including cars, trucks, and agricultural products.

Avoided Worst-Case Scenario: Analysts say the deal puts South Korea on equal footing with Japan, which also secured a 15% rate.

Investment & Energy Commitments

$350 Billion Investment: South Korea pledged to invest in US-based projects selected by President Trump.

$100 Billion in Energy Purchases: Seoul will buy US liquefied natural gas and other energy products.

Additional Investments Pending: More funding announcements are expected during President Lee Jae-myung’s upcoming visit to the White House.

Industry Impact

Autos & Electronics: South Korea’s major exports—cars, chips, and steel—are protected from higher tariffs, a relief for companies like Hyundai and Samsung.

Market Reaction: The KOSPI index rose modestly, signaling cautious optimism.

️ Political & Strategic Implications

President Lee’s First Major Win: The deal is seen as a political victory for South Korea’s newly elected leader, who took office in June after a snap election.

Strengthened Alliance: Both sides emphasized mutual benefit and deeper industrial cooperation.

US–EU Trade Deal Finalized: Key Details and Reactions

The United States and European Union have reached a sweeping trade agreement that averts a tariff war and reshapes transatlantic commerce. Here's what you need to know:

Tariff Framework

15% Tariff Ceiling: The US will impose a flat 15% tariff on most EU exports, including cars, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals—down from the threatened 30%.

Strategic Exemptions: Aircraft, certain chemicals, generic drugs, and natural resources are exempt from new tariffs.

Steel, Aluminum & Copper: These remain subject to 50% US tariffs, though both sides agreed to establish tariff-rate quotas to ease the burden.

EU Tariff Suspension: Brussels suspended €93 billion in retaliatory tariffs that were set to begin August 7.

Investment & Energy Commitments

$750 Billion in US Energy: The EU will purchase American liquefied natural gas, oil, and nuclear energy over the next three years.

$600 Billion in US Investments: EU companies will invest in US sectors including AI, pharmaceuticals, and infrastructure by 2029.

€40 Billion in AI Chips: The EU will buy US-made artificial intelligence chips.

Regulatory Alignment

Zero-for-Zero Tariffs: On select strategic goods like aircraft and semiconductor equipment.

Digital Trade: No duties on electronic transmissions; both sides will work to reduce digital trade barriers.

Industrial Standards: The EU will accept US auto and industrial standards for the first time.

Market & Political Reaction

Investor Sentiment Drops: Eurozone investor confidence fell sharply, with Germany hit hardest.

Mixed Political Response:

French PM François Bayrou called it “a dark day” for EU sovereignty.

Belgian PM Bart De Wever said it’s “a moment of relief, but not of celebration”.

US Commerce Secretary: Called the deal a “historic unlocking” of the EU’s $20 trillion market.

️ Strategic Implications

The deal mirrors recent agreements with Japan and South Korea, suggesting a new US-led trade framework.

EU officials say the agreement restores predictability and safeguards jobs and SMEs across Europe.

yup

There is no official trade deal, as nothing has been documented. This statement comes from a Japanese politician, not me.

Opposition parties fume over U.S. trade deal not being put in writing

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said issuing a joint document with the U.S. will not serve the nation’s interests and may instead jeopardize the agreement.

www.japantimes.co.jp

Same with South Korea.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-korea-says-it-has-no-written-pact-us-trade-deal-2025-08-01/

These are verbal agreements that must be documented, then debated and approved by each country's parliament. EU deal needs to be approved by 27 countries before it can be signed.

Always in His Presence · Aug 5, 2025

FAITH-IN-HIM said:
There is no official trade deal, as nothing has been documented. This statement comes from a Japanese politician, not me.

Opposition parties fume over U.S. trade deal not being put in writing

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said issuing a joint document with the U.S. will not serve the nation’s interests and may instead jeopardize the agreement.

www.japantimes.co.jp

Same with South Korea.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-korea-says-it-has-no-written-pact-us-trade-deal-2025-08-01/

These are verbal agreements that must be documented, then debated and approved by each country's parliament. EU deal needs to be approved by 27 countries before it can be signed.

What does finalizing an agreement mean?

Larniavc · Aug 5, 2025

Fantine said:
and you can't export “service”.

You can if you out source to the country in question.

Larniavc · Aug 5, 2025

Always in His Presence said:
What does finalizing an agreement mean?

Something that has not happened yet.

FreeinChrist · Aug 5, 2025

Always in His Presence said:
It's an interesting opinion piece - let's revisit in six months

As for other trade agreement with out Pacific allies:

Trump announces a US trade deal with Vietnam

The 20% tariff is double the current minimum tariff rate the US is charging on goods from Vietnam and virtually every other country.

“In return, Vietnam will do something that they have never done before, give the United States of America TOTAL ACCESS to their Markets for Trade,” he added. “In other words, they will ‘OPEN THEIR MARKET TO THE UNITED STATES,’ meaning that, we will be able to sell our product into Vietnam at ZERO Tariff.”

Trump announces trade agreement with South Korea ahead of August 1 tariff deadline

Among the $350 billion fund, $150 billion will be dedicated to shipbuilding cooperation, supporting Korean companies’ entry into the US shipbuilding industry, Lee said. The rest will go to semiconductors, secondary batteries, biologics and energy.

The new tariff of 15%, however, is still higher than the 10% minimum tariff South Korea’s and dozens of other nations’ goods have faced since April.

Yeah, he has trade agreements with some countries but they say it is a bit different from what Trump says, and say that Trump is using "political rhetoric" that they differ on.
For instance:

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/korea-us-prepare-summit-with-details-trade-deal-unresolved-2025-08-04/

The absence of a written agreement underpinning last week's talks could open the way for disputes, with some differences already emerging in the two sides' accounts of the deal.

Key among these was Sunday's denial by a South Korean presidential adviser of U.S. claims that it would take 90% of the profit from project investments of $350 billion by South Korea, which also agreed to open up its domestic rice market.

"Even a binding deal like the FTA has been efficiently scrapped," warned Choi Seok-young, a former chief negotiator for the Korea-U.S. free trade deal, signed in 2007. "And this is just promise."

The agreement with South Korea is not written yet....and South Korea differs on the details from Trump.

The deal with Vietnam is also not a written agreement as details need to be finalized.

And neither of these show the US winning over China in terms of world trade and influence.

The ending of USAID took away US influence. The ending Voice of America is lowering US influence, and China is stepping up.

FAITH-IN-HIM · Aug 5, 2025

Always in His Presence said:
What does finalizing an agreement mean?

“Finalizing” means nothing.

Let's set aside Japanese, South Korean, and EU legislative procedures for now and focus on US law.

President of the United States cannot unilaterally sign a binding trade deal without Congressional approval. The Constitution grants Congress the power to regulate foreign commerce and impose tariffs, meaning the President needs congressional authorization to enter into and implement trade agreements.

The U.S. Constitution, specifically the Commerce Clause, vests Congress with the power to regulate foreign trade.

While the President can enter into certain executive agreements, these are typically not binding on the U.S. in the same way as treaties or trade agreements approved by Congress.

Congress has periodically authorized the President to negotiate trade agreements through TPA, but this authority still requires Congressional review and approval of the final agreement.

Do you know if congress approved any trade deal in 2025 ?

FreeinChrist · Aug 5, 2025

Per AI, the US and Japan have an agreement, but there are still some issues to deal with.

Based on recent reports and official announcements, the US and Japan have reached a trade/tariff agreement, but key details regarding its implementation, particularly for the auto sector, are still being addressed. ....

Ongoing Uncertainty: While the agreement is significant, some experts and critics question the effectiveness of the US's broader tariff strategy and the long-term impact of these deals. It's also important to note that many of these agreements are executive agreements and may not be enshrined in law, potentially leaving them vulnerable to future changes or legal challenges.

In summary, as of August 5, 2025, a trade and tariff agreement exists between the US and Japan, including a 15% reciprocal tariff rate and a reduction in auto tariffs. However, the exact implementation details, especially for the auto sector, are still under negotiation and awaiting a definitive executive order.

But again, this does not diminish what China is accomplishing.
Again, per AI (and we need a policy about the use of AI)

Japan and China have a significant trade relationship, with China being Japan's largest trading partner. While they haven't established a bilateral free trade agreement (FTA), they are part of the larger Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement, the world's largest free trade agreement. Additionally, Japan and China, along with South Korea, have been negotiating a trilateral FTA for some time.

Note - with China being Japan's largest trading partner.

China is winning the trade war Trump started

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U.S. Economy by Sector (2025)​

1. Technology and Innovation​

2. Healthcare​

3. Financial Services​

4. Renewable Energy​

5. Retail and E-commerce​

6. Manufacturing and Goods-Producing Industries​

7. Services-Producing Industries​

8. Government Sector​

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Trump announces a US trade deal with Vietnam​

Trump announces trade agreement with South Korea ahead of August 1 tariff deadline​

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