Jobs report lousy: Trump shoots the messenger

comana · 2025-08-02T10:21:22-0500

ozso said:
That's the official reason he gave for firing her. Although he didn't have to give any reason at all, except maybe to say he was dissatisfied. No need for him to make something up, which he's likely well aware of.

I am aware but we don’t have to accept his reason. Knowing how ego driven he is it’s easy to the truth.

Lukaris · 2025-08-02T10:27:45-0500

Here is the White House take on it with media and congressional sources provided.

BLS Has Lengthy History of Inaccuracies, Incompetence

A lengthy history of inaccuracies and incompetence by Erika McEntarfer, the former Biden-appointed Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, has

www.whitehouse.gov

The Barbarian · 2025-08-02T10:32:22-0500

iluvatar5150 said:
There’s one pretty active in this thread, unless you assume the other poster to be a bot or troll of some sort.

Given the facts, which do you think is more likely?

ozso · 2025-08-02T10:37:25-0500

comana said:
I am aware but we don’t have to accept his reason. Knowing how ego driven he is it’s easy to the truth.

It's easy to come to whatever conclusion if one is completely biased against Trump. Then everything is seen as egomaniac, megalomaniac, autocrat, authoritarian, dictator etc. There's no way to approach whatever situation logically or objectively though a lens of pure bias.

JosephZ · 2025-08-02T10:37:49-0500

ozso said:
McEntarfer was discharged for falsifying job numbers before the 2024 election in an attempt to boost Kamala Harris' chances of victory.

ozso said:
According to what I read it was that McEntarfer falsified job numbers before the 2024 election in an attempt to boost Kamala Harris' chances of victory.

Here's an article related to the jobs report just prior to the election. It wasn't a good one for the Biden/Harris administration.

Trump camp calls latest jobs report a ‘catastrophe’

Donald Trump’s campaign seized on data showing the U.S. gained just 12,000 jobs in October as evidence the Biden/Harris administration has failed in its stewardship of the country, in a closing economic argument just days before the election.

“This jobs report is a catastrophe and definitively reveals how badly Kamala Harris broke our economy,” Trump spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said in a statement. “President Trump will fix it.”

The jobs numbers paint a picture of a weakening labor market. But it’s hard to know for certain how worrying the report is, as the data has been muddied by two major hurricanes and a strike at Boeing, which temporarily kept people from working.

...the economy added 112,000 fewer jobs in the last two months than previously estimated, according to Labor Department revisions — adding to concerns about the job market’s trajectory.

Trump lies.

"They came out with numbers that were very favorable to Kamala. They were trying to get her elected, but then on the 15th of November, or thereabouts, they had an 800,000 or 900,000 reduction ‒ right after the election. But it didn't work." -- Trump

The revisions in the jobs numbers came out three months before the election, not after as Trump claimed.

Jobs report revision: US added 818,000 fewer jobs than believed
August 21, 2024

Turns out the nation’s jobs engine wasn’t quite as invincible as it appeared.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday revised down its estimate of total employment in March 2024 by 818,000, the largest such downgrade in 15 years. That effectively means there were 818,000 fewer job gains than first believed from April 2023 through March 2024.

The Barbarian · 2025-08-02T10:41:14-0500

Lukaris said:
Here is the White House take on it with media and congressional sources provided.

Even if true, that list is much, much shorter than (for example) incorrect claims from the Trump WH or from "congressional sources." Would you like some examples? Given the source, why would anyone uncritically accept it?

1. Falsely claimed in April that grocery prices “are down” and “WAY DOWN.” Grocery prices had continued to increase since he took office – and the jump from February to March, about 0.49%, was the biggest one-month increase since October 2022.

2. Falsely claimed in April that “the cost of eggs has come down like 93, 94% since we took office.” The consumer price of eggs hit a record high in March,

3. Falsely claimed April 17 that gas prices had fallen to $1.98 per gallon in two states the day prior. In fact, no state’s average gas price was below $2.70 per gallon the day prior, according to data from AAA

4. Falsely claimed there was “no inflation” during his first presidency.

5. Falsely claimed President Joe Biden’s administration had the highest inflation “in the history of our country.

6. Falsely claimed the price of bacon “quadrupled” during Biden’s presidency. Federal statistics show the average price of a pound of sliced bacon in December 2024, Biden’s last full month in office, was up about 19% since January 2021, the month Biden was inaugurated; the average price in January 2025, Biden’s last partial month in office, was up about 21% since January 2021. Neither was close to the 300% increase Trump claimed.

7. Falsely claimed the price of apples doubled during Biden’s presidency. Federal statistics show the price of apples increased by about 7% between the month Biden was sworn in as president and December 2024; it was about an 8% increase between January 2021 and January 2025. Neither was close to the 100% increase Trump claimed.

https://www.cnn.com/politics/fact-check-trump-false-claims-debunked

There's a lot more at the site, all nicely documented (unlike Trump's claims). You might say that he's just confused, and not lying. But would it matter if he was confused, rather than lying about the BLS numbers? You sure you want to trust someone with his record of false statements about the economy?

The Barbarian · 2025-08-02T10:43:50-0500

ozso said:
It's easy to come to whatever conclusion if one is completely biased against Trump.

Comes down to evidence. See above. Reality matters.

ozso said:
Then everything is seen as egomaniac, megalomaniac, autocrat, authoritarian, dictator etc.

Have you considered the possibility that he's just tempermental and incompetent?

ozso said:
There's no way to approach whatever situation logically or objectively though a lens of pure bias.

But you can try. Read the evidence above. Check the sources. And think.

Lukaris · 2025-08-02T11:01:47-0500

The Barbarian said:
Even if true, that list is much, much shorter than (for example) incorrect claims from the Trump WH or from "congressional sources." Would you like some examples? Given the source, why would anyone uncritically accept it?

1. Falsely claimed in April that grocery prices “are down” and “WAY DOWN.” Grocery prices had continued to increase since he took office – and the jump from February to March, about 0.49%, was the biggest one-month increase since October 2022.

2. Falsely claimed in April that “the cost of eggs has come down like 93, 94% since we took office.” The consumer price of eggs hit a record high in March,

3. Falsely claimed April 17 that gas prices had fallen to $1.98 per gallon in two states the day prior. In fact, no state’s average gas price was below $2.70 per gallon the day prior, according to data from AAA

4. Falsely claimed there was “no inflation” during his first presidency.

5. Falsely claimed President Joe Biden’s administration had the highest inflation “in the history of our country.

6. Falsely claimed the price of bacon “quadrupled” during Biden’s presidency. Federal statistics show the average price of a pound of sliced bacon in December 2024, Biden’s last full month in office, was up about 19% since January 2021, the month Biden was inaugurated; the average price in January 2025, Biden’s last partial month in office, was up about 21% since January 2021. Neither was close to the 300% increase Trump claimed.

7. Falsely claimed the price of apples doubled during Biden’s presidency. Federal statistics show the price of apples increased by about 7% between the month Biden was sworn in as president and December 2024; it was about an 8% increase between January 2021 and January 2025. Neither was close to the 100% increase Trump claimed.

https://www.cnn.com/politics/fact-check-trump-false-claims-debunked

There's a lot more at the site, all nicely documented (unlike Trump's claims). You might say that he's just confused, and not lying. But would it matter if he was confused, rather than lying about the BLS numbers? You sure you want to trust someone with his record of false statements about the

The Barbarian said:
Even if true, that list is much, much shorter than (for example) incorrect claims from the Trump WH or from "congressional sources." Would you like some examples? Given the source, why would anyone uncritically accept it?

1. Falsely claimed in April that grocery prices “are down” and “WAY DOWN.” Grocery prices had continued to increase since he took office – and the jump from February to March, about 0.49%, was the biggest one-month increase since October 2022.

2. Falsely claimed in April that “the cost of eggs has come down like 93, 94% since we took office.” The consumer price of eggs hit a record high in March,

3. Falsely claimed April 17 that gas prices had fallen to $1.98 per gallon in two states the day prior. In fact, no state’s average gas price was below $2.70 per gallon the day prior, according to data from AAA

4. Falsely claimed there was “no inflation” during his first presidency.

5. Falsely claimed President Joe Biden’s administration had the highest inflation “in the history of our country.

6. Falsely claimed the price of bacon “quadrupled” during Biden’s presidency. Federal statistics show the average price of a pound of sliced bacon in December 2024, Biden’s last full month in office, was up about 19% since January 2021, the month Biden was inaugurated; the average price in January 2025, Biden’s last partial month in office, was up about 21% since January 2021. Neither was close to the 300% increase Trump claimed.

7. Falsely claimed the price of apples doubled during Biden’s presidency. Federal statistics show the price of apples increased by about 7% between the month Biden was sworn in as president and December 2024; it was about an 8% increase between January 2021 and January 2025. Neither was close to the 100% increase Trump claimed.

https://www.cnn.com/politics/fact-check-trump-false-claims-debunked

There's a lot more at the site, all nicely documented (unlike Trump's claims). You might say that he's just confused, and not lying. But would it matter if he was confused, rather than lying about the BLS numbers? You sure you want to trust someone with his record of false statements about the economy?

So what is the record on the economy? In other indicators, initially including job numbers, along with GDP & inflation, everything was supposed to be going south. As of July 31st, right before this revision, a conservative source could say all of these indicators were better than expected.

For ex. a report of Victor D. Hanson:

GDP came in at 3.0. That was not predicted to be that high. The inflation rate may have just come out for July. There are different reports, but it’s about 2.7%. It was 2.6% in May. January was 3.0%. For the year, it’s about 2.4%. So, inflation is still tolerable. It’s not growing—an annualized rate at 2.4%.

So, you have a good GDP, you have a good inflation rate, you have a good jobs report. We’re at about 4.1% unemployment in the month of June. We picked up 150,000 new jobs—that wasn’t predicted. As far as money coming into the Treasury and going out, we had a historical May. We’ll wait and see what June and July are like, but we actually had more money coming into the Treasury than the government spent.

Experts Were Wrong. The Economy’s Strong—But the Fed Won’t Budge.

The economy is strong with good GDP, low inflation, and low unemployment, yet the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates.

www.dailysignal.com

So maybe there is some contention to this job revision; are the GDP & inflation figures also up for revision? Hanson was working with valid stats just about 3 days ago. Things can change quickly and where he had strong arguments about 3 days ago might now be weakened. I tend to be skeptical towards the mainstream, anti Trump narrative though.

NxNW · 2025-08-02T11:07:30-0500

ozso said:
McEntarfer was discharged for falsifying job numbers before the 2024 election in an attempt to boost Kamala Harris' chances of victory.

I'm still looking for a link that supports your claim that numbers were falsified.

ozso · 2025-08-02T11:10:24-0500

The Barbarian said:
Comes down to evidence. See above. Reality matters.

Have you considered the possibility that he's just tempermental and incompetent?

But you can try. Read the evidence above. Check the sources. And think.

The extremely biased sources? Anytime I bring up CNN I see Trump bad, Trump bad, Trump bad. They obviously hate Trump with a passion. So what I'd have to do is investigate all of their endless claims against Trump to see how accurate/true they are.

essentialsaltes · 2025-08-02T11:18:39-0500

1937 Soviet Census
A Pravda editorial stated that the "enemies of the people gave the census counters invalid instructions that led to the gross under-counting of the population, but the brave NKVD under the leadership of Nikolai Yezhov destroyed the snake's nest in the statistical bodies".

Andreas Georgiou
Georgiou's prosecution has been denounced as a violation of scientific freedom and human rights by the American Statistical Association's Committee on Scientific Freedom and Human Rights[12] and the editorial board of The Economist.[13] The Financial Times reported, "The case has sparked outrage from economists and statisticians worldwide who believe Mr. Georgiou has become a scapegoat for Greece's political class."

Great Leap Forward
Moreover, in 1958, Mao abolished the State Statisti- cal Bureau, which meant that there were no statisticians or demographers in 1959 to project national production figures before all of the harvests were physically procured and aggregated across regions

[The Great Leap Forward case is pretty complex, but holds maybe an even more important message for today. Statisticians were replaced by Party Officials, who told Mao what he wanted to hear, even if it was untrue and inflated.]

ozso · 2025-08-02T11:19:47-0500

NxNW said:
I'm still looking for a link that supports your claim that numbers were falsified.

It's not my claim. It's Trump's stated reason for firing McEntarfer - which I provided a link to. I mean I thought that's what you were asking for, rather than asking for a link to a claim I never made.

essentialsaltes · 2025-08-02T11:22:05-0500

Lukaris said:
are the GDP & inflation figures also up for revision?

For GDP, yes, the Bureau of Economic Analysis provides several revision for GDP. I believe they release estimates one month after the close of the quarter, and then twice more at monthly intervals, and there's the possibility of an annual revision.

ozso · 2025-08-02T11:25:25-0500

essentialsaltes said:
View attachment 367944

1937 Soviet Census
A Pravda editorial stated that the "enemies of the people gave the census counters invalid instructions that led to the gross under-counting of the population, but the brave NKVD under the leadership of Nikolai Yezhov destroyed the snake's nest in the statistical bodies".

Andreas Georgiou
Georgiou's prosecution has been denounced as a violation of scientific freedom and human rights by the American Statistical Association's Committee on Scientific Freedom and Human Rights[12] and the editorial board of The Economist.[13] The Financial Times reported, "The case has sparked outrage from economists and statisticians worldwide who believe Mr. Georgiou has become a scapegoat for Greece's political class."

Great Leap Forward
Moreover, in 1958, Mao abolished the State Statisti- cal Bureau, which meant that there were no statisticians or demographers in 1959 to project national production figures before all of the harvests were physically procured and aggregated across regions

[The Great Leap Forward case is pretty complex, but holds maybe an even more important message for today. Statisticians were replaced by Party Officials, who told Mao what he wanted to hear, even if it was untrue and inflated.]

I wonder what Grok's answer would have been if the question had only said fired.

Nithavela · 2025-08-02T11:33:19-0500

essentialsaltes · 2025-08-02T11:45:18-0500

The Barbarian · 2025-08-02T12:13:29-0500

Lukaris said:
So what is the record on the economy?

Troubling, apparently...
WASHINGTON, Aug 1 (Reuters) - U.S. employment growth was weaker than expected in July while the nonfarm payrolls count for the prior two months was revised down by a massive 258,000 jobs, suggesting a sharp deterioration in labor market conditions that puts a September interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve back on the table.
The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday also showed the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% last month as household employment declined.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-labor-market-cracks-widen-job-growth-hits-stall-speed-2025-08-01/

What do you need to know?

The US economy contracted at an annualised rate of -0.5% in the first quarter (Q1) - revised down from the earlier estimate of -0.2%, against 2.4% growth in Q4 2024. This confirms the US endured its first quarterly contraction in three years. The downward revision reflected an adjustment to consumer spending and exports.

Take two: US GDP shrinks more than expected; markets holding up despite uncertainty

What do you need to know?The US economy contracted at an annualised rate of -0.5% in the first quarter (Q1) - revised down from the earlier estimate…

www.axa-im.com

Rose more than expected in 2nd quarter...

Gross Domestic Product, 2nd Quarter 2025 (Advance Estimate) | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.0 percent in the second quarter of 2025 (April, May, and June), according to the advance estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 0.5 percent.

www.bea.gov

The unexpectedly severe drop in employment might trigger interest rate cuts in September, so that's not necessarily a bad thing for Trump. Tariffs remain the big worry. Right now, Wall St. seems to be thinking TACO, and is betting that Trump will fold once again on his worst threats.

iluvatar5150 · 2025-08-02T14:58:54-0500

The Barbarian said:
Given the facts, which do you think is more likely?

I think it’s likely that some folks will believe anything he says.

loveofourlord · 2025-08-02T15:09:28-0500

ozso said:
According to what I read it was that McEntarfer falsified job numbers before the 2024 election in an attempt to boost Kamala Harris' chances of victory.

then why didn't she do that for biden? Kinda sounds like an excuse not a fact.

ozso · 2025-08-02T15:43:23-0500

loveofourlord said:
then why didn't she do that for biden? Kinda sounds like an excuse not a fact.

Theoretically she did do it for Biden but it transferred to Harris.

Jobs report lousy: Trump shoots the messenger

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