GoldenBoy89
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You think the economy is doing good right now?
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Trump Tariffs work in less than three days!
- Thread starter Always in His Presence
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I think the economy is just fine. The GDP is up. The economy is certainly not in the tank as predicted by some including economists whom the left loved to tout.
- Jun 11, 2005
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Since the tariffs have just started (?) the countdown begins at that time...
He told mistruths about the start dates and percentages as he does in most situations.
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I think you fail to realize that flattery---even when insincere and spoken through gritted teeth--is the only way the EU feels he can be "managed." Behind closed doors I imagine they loathe him with every fiber of their being, and can't wait till he is off the world stage.
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eclipsenow
Scripture is God's word, Science is God's works
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Oh my word! This sounds just like those who recite old myths against climate science like "Wasn't Florida meant to be underwater by now?" (Without understanding the climate science, or when the models indicated what level of sea-level rise would have occurred!)
The tariffs haven't really kicked in yet! The market is feeling the effects of all this Trump uncertainty.
I mean - the EU deal was only partially agreed last week - and while many "Trump" it up as a big victory, the realpolitik is this is very early days - and these things take years to iron out the kinks - and sometimes collapse anyway! Trump's very bigliest deal of all bigly deals may just collapse!
On Sunday, the United States and the 27-member state European Union announced that they had reached a trade framework agreement: The EU agreed to accept 15% U.S. tariffs on most of its goods, easing fears of a catastrophic trans-Atlantic trade war. There were also commitments by the EU to buy $750 billion in U.S. energy products and make $600 billion in new investments through 2028, according to the White House.
“We just signed a very big trade deal, the biggest of them all,” Trump said Monday.
But there’s no guarantee that Trump’s radical overhaul of U.S. trade policy will deliver the happy ending he’s promised. The framework agreement was exceedingly sparse on details. Most trade deals require months and even years of painstaking negotiation that rise and fall on granular details...
...To his closest aides, Trump’s use of tariffs has validated their trust in his skills as a negotiator and their belief that the economists who warned of downturns and inflation were wrong. The S&P 500 stock index was basically flat on Monday, but stocks have more than recovered from the tariff-induced selloff in April.
“Where are the ‘experts’ now?” Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick posted on X.
But the story is not over. For one thing, many of the details of Trump’s trade deals remain somewhat hazy and have not been captured in writing. The U.S. and Japan, for instance, have offered differing descriptions of Japan’s agreement to invest $550 billion in the United States.
“Where are the ‘experts’ now?” Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick posted on X.
But the story is not over. For one thing, many of the details of Trump’s trade deals remain somewhat hazy and have not been captured in writing. The U.S. and Japan, for instance, have offered differing descriptions of Japan’s agreement to invest $550 billion in the United States.
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It's mid 2025 - and he's signed maybe 7 deals: China and the EU are the biggest - but there are still many other nations that still have to deal with this weird new protectionist, insular, MAGA America.
Methinkest you celebrate too soon!
The uncertainty has all sorts of terrible consequences on the ability of any nation or economy or business to form a long-term business commitment to America. One man should not have the power to punish the American AND / OR allied economies just because he's having a tanty.
Get back to us when Americans REALLY start paying Trump his windfall of tariff taxes!
In the meantime - when did Congress hand this powerful tool of international negotiation and relationships to the whims of one man having a bad-hair day? This used to be an arena controlled by an important branch of the US government. It seems you guys are down a branch! Losing the balance of powers already?
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eclipsenow
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Like most countries! I linked to it in my new AUKUS thread - but this political podcast from the Australian National University questions not just the nuclear subs, not just our siding with American defence policy rather than more fully developing our own regional defence policy, but also questions how good it is for world leaders - and the Australian Prime Minister - to have to go through the humiliation of ‘bending the knee’ to daddy in the Oval. Trump seems to feel the measure of American diplomacy and international relationships - the ultimate benchmarks - is whether or not the other leaders have 'said nice things about me.'
Democracy Sausage Episode: Bending the knee
Um.... what the? How revolting!
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eclipsenow
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MILITARY ASIDE
In a weird way, Trump's tantrums and threats to NATO and pulling out of the EU has finally woken a sleeping giant. America's arrogance in keeping the EU military 'specialised' and 'co-ordinated by American hardware for maximum effect' has actually been all about nerfing the EU. It's been about keeping them SMALL and DIVIDED in their domestic military hardware manufacture - relying on American leadership for satellite co-ordinating and heavy airlift capability - and of course - spending $60 billion USD a year on American arms. This is 105 TIMES what America invests in NATO and EU bases! America gets 105 TIMES more out of NATO than it puts in - and Trump and Vance can't stop crying about how unfair everything is!
The EU have had enough. They are starting to scale up. It's baby steps - but this year - for the first time ever - the EU co-ordinated arms purchases for about 6 countries. Rather than individual market tenders at very high price, the EU came together and put in a joint pooled order for a much larger tender, bringing prices down.
Eventually the EU plan to scale up their own domestic manufacturing - and wean off that $60 billion a year military kit. Eventually THEY'LL get the domestic benefit of all those jobs and spin-off technologies. Most tellingly of all? Even Canada is questioning whether they are going ahead with their F-35 purchases - and might look to earlier generation (but much cheaper) modern European jets - and then their Tempest when it is developed in the next decade.
BACK TO CIVILIAN TRADE
And as I said above - this EU / USA tariff 'deal' has not spelled out the particulars. It could easily fall through, or have unintended and unpleasant side-effects on the American economy.
Trumpists are crowing about Trump's 'deals' before they've been tried and tested. These things can take months - even years - in the testing - and then fall apart! Get back to us in 2 years and tell me how great your economy is going when inflation is ticking along - while the rest of the world reaches a new equilibrium trading through the CPTPP!
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Are you just talking about the EU agreement? The tariffs have been going on for a while and have brought in about 78 billion so far. And there was all this, the sky is falling, mentality going and dire warnings that our economy was going to tank and a terrible recession was headed our way etc etc. By July it was all going to be over for us.
I didn't know what was going to happen. I was always of the mind of lets wait and see. Well here we are and we are doing okay. And now you come with just more of the same doom and gloom. Pardon me if I just dismiss it now. You are your economists have been proven wrong at this point.
Come back in six months and lets see where we are shall we? Im not going to respond anymore to those who have been proven wrong already.
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Tariffs have kicked in. We have collected 78 billion so far and are doing just fine.
The EU just signed an agreement with us, but other tariffs have been going on and we haven't seen the economic crash the left was so scared about. Much like all the other doom tge left has predicted the tariffs have turned out to be a big nothing burger.
Come back to us in 6 months and lets see how it is going. Maybe it will be the end of the world then. The first predictions turned out to be false. Much like the all the climate doom predictions have been false over the years.
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Its interesting how you are so certain its not going to work while excoriating others for being certain it will. You say those who think it will work are some how wrong to think that because it takes years to find out. Then go on to tell us how bad it's going to be.
Why dont you wait and see?
I was not a fan of the tariffs. But I didn't know. And said so. I was worried myself after hearing all the doom sayers talking about it. But I was willing not to jump in until I saw what was actually going to happen. I was of a wait and see mind set. Well, here we are, and we are doing okay. GDP is up, the economy is doing okay, and we've taken in 78 billion in tariffs.
I tell you what. Why dont you come back to us in 2 years and lay a big fat I told you so on us. And if things are okay, maybe you'll be big enough to admit you made a mistake.
Because frankly I dont really know and I'm not making any predictions of doom or sunshine.
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BCP1928
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The economy was good under Biden, too, but a lot of conservatives complained that it wasn't putting any more money in thier pockets. How much more money is Trump's good economy going to put in our pockets now?
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I dont think the economy was good under Biden. Inflation went nuts under him. Everyone knows and felt that in their pocketbook.
We'll see how it goes with Trump. Its certainly not bad. I also wouldn't call it great either. But then its only been 6 months. Many claimed catastrophe by now. Well that hasn't happened. Jobless rate is still hovering at 4%. GDP is up, inflation is doable. Let's see what happens.
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- Aug 18, 2012
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Most of the "dire warnings" assumed Trump would actually cary through with the first wave of tariffs. As we now know, it was all talk (aka TACO).
Now, after several bluffs, Trump seems to be settling on 15% as the base tariff. Are we supposed to celebrate a 15% tax?
And of course, he's still wielding the tarrif bludgeon....a 50% tariff on Brazil? [The US has a trade surplus with Brazil]. And threats against Mexico, Canada and other friends.....
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GoldenBoy89
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I thought this throughout the Biden administration. Not great but we did have a worldwide catastrophe with the pandemic just prior.
As it was during the Biden administration.
Idk what specific predictions were being made about the economy but everyday items and groceries are getting more expensive. A ton of the stuff we buy was front loaded before the tariffs went into effect so we aren’t truly dealing with the effects of this trade policy yet. The real big fish is China. Almost everything we buy and use daily comes from them and our trade negotiations with them are still on pause. Let’s also remember Trump has backed down from his ridiculous 145% tariff he had threatened them with. It’s important to keep in mind that tariffs we place on other countries equals price increases on the things we buy from them here.
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You don't have any clue how negotiations work do you. This is why Democrats are going to continue to lose. You are lost on how he works and gets things done.
Yes of course more, the sky is falling mentality.
Why don't you just wait and see what's going to happen before projecting more doom. I'm not projecting anything.
There's a good chance its going to be okay. Trump isn't going to do anything to destroy his presidency or ruin the chances for republicans in the future. He'll pull back as needed. I mean the economy could be humming along just fine and many Democrats would still find something to complain about and warn of impending doom and not vote for republicans. But independents and more centrists will.
Hey, you can take solace in k ow if your prognostications come true, you will be able to stop everything in a couple of years and be on control in 3 1/2. And you'll be able to institute all the social programs you want because the country will be in such a disastrous state. You'll be able take all the rich people's money and make almost everyone middle class.
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- Aug 18, 2012
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Eh...I negotiate between parties every day as part of my professional life.
Keep constructing that strawman.
I question a 15% tariff generally....and the rational for a 50% tariff on Brazil.....?
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Then why were you so sure that nothing was going to happen with the tariff talks and that everything was going to fall apart? You didn't know it was all talk because you were in the doom is coming category.
So if you are a negotiator then you are lacking in major league negotiations like Trumps team has been doing and succeeding on so far.
And you are still at it, which means you haven't learned a thing.
So?
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eclipsenow
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Most of Trump's 'deals' are NOT what he claims they are.
Most have NOT even been implemented yet.
Most have significant caveats - like a 'maximum intentional investment' rather than GUARANTEED investment. EG: The $650 billion investment from the EU into American energy products is 'intentional.' It's not like the EU itself is going to spend government money on this - they're 'estimating' that businesses might invest a maximum of that amount.
In other words - these deals are waffle.
The tariffs have not kicked in yet!
It hasn't even started!
Good luck guys - you're going to need it!
Most have NOT even been implemented yet.
Most have significant caveats - like a 'maximum intentional investment' rather than GUARANTEED investment. EG: The $650 billion investment from the EU into American energy products is 'intentional.' It's not like the EU itself is going to spend government money on this - they're 'estimating' that businesses might invest a maximum of that amount.
In other words - these deals are waffle.
The tariffs have not kicked in yet!
And the American people think the system is working?
It hasn't even started!
And when it does - oh my - the inflation!
Good luck guys - you're going to need it!
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- Aug 18, 2012
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Like I wrote, you won't defend the policy. BTW..Mexico was granted another 90 days (is that the 2nd or 3rd extension? I'm losing count).
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