Would Trump defend Australia if we were attacked? We HAD a big purchase deal worked out... but....

eclipsenow said:

Wow - that's going to require 2 posts to reply to.

"It’s always the everyday person that is milked and who has to foot the bill."

ECONOMIC IMPACT

Except the bill with fossil fuels is MUCH higher because:-
1. Climate change is real - you have not responded to the raw physics which Fourier figured out 200 years ago, and Foote clarified in 1856.

You say "Our veiw points will probably never agree." I'm not discussing viewpoints. I'm discussing facts and evidence - as a Christian I thought you would value basing your opinion on verifiable truth claims.

2. Globally fossil fuel pollution kills more people than live in the entire state of NSW each year, and costs the world $5 TRILLION in EXTRA health care costs. The World Bank estimates the Energy Transition will cost only $4 Trillion. The sooner we do this the sooner it pays for itself.

3. Peak oil IS a thing. It IS finite. "Some say fossil fuel is just a term used to make oil seem limited and precious." Give me a break. Who is "some"? How much is in Alaska? Try doing some actual research before you post! Global conventional oil has already peaked. Only unconventional oil like tar-sands flooded the market and reversed America's oil decline - and turned America into one of the world's largest oil exporters! But at a horrendous environmental and financial cost. It is only affordable at a new average higher global price.

Historical oil discovered in green - oil mined in rusty red.​

Look at this graph closely. See how discoveries last century are now dropping off? The consumption / production graph line can only follow discoveries. See how 1985 was the LAST time we discovered more oil in a year than we burned?

We are now burning oil our grandparents discovered!

View attachment 367737

So when you get back to us about Alaska's oil reserves - remember to divide by 100 million barrels. Because we burn that every day! Alaska / 100 million barrels = days of oil Alaska has. Got it? Please go do some googling.​

(I'll put my answer at the bottom of the next post).​

Remember - peak oil is not about oil running out, but slowly running down. It's about the easy, cheap stuff being largely used up. The "low-hanging fruit" is gone - and it's going to cost more and more to get the other stuff. But don't worry - EV sales are on track to radically reduce oil use across the next 10 to 15 years. We'll leave oil way before it leaves us.

4. Oil DOES fund petro-tyrants - most of Russia's income is from natural gas and oil. It's literally funding the war in Ukraine.

Why do you want to defend a corrupt regime like them, like the Middle Eastern regimes that are as oppressive as some Medieval Kings - why? Just turning around and ASSERTING there are 'climate tyrants' is not convincing. Governments have a duty of care to their populations to deal with the problems above. What is your solution to pollution killing over 8 million a year, costing $5 TRILLION a year in extra health fees, destabilising the climate according to demonstrable physics, and the other challenges above? You don't have one.

I do. It's happening before our eyes. Not perfectly - nothing is - but it's a start.

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eclipsenow said:

Ah - so Brisbane - Christian - and Young Earth Creationist. Got it.
No anti-climate biases here!


When you can actually address the replies I have already given to this point - I'll bother to reply.



Big pink blocks do not make you appear to have more points.


Read what I actually wrote. Conventional oil has peaked. But you do not seem to want to bother with complicated things like 'data' and the fact that there are multiple varieties of oil - so I don't know why I'm bothering to try and explain this to you. Your replies are so uninformed as to be glib.




Glib. Uninformed.
The REALITY is that if the entire world of conventional oil has peaked, that means that only the more fragile reservoirs of unconventional oil are holding the balance.

It means that the 'cheap oil' era of the past is gone. Here - let me use a metaphor.

Imagine you pick apples on holidays, and have a beach mission you're supplying with 2 wheelbarrow loads of apples each morning. It's an apple-themed mission with food, games, apple-bobbing, everything apples.

You have a few weeks to pick these from a field of fantastic apple trees.

The first week is really easy - as they're all the lower apples - and you can do your 2 wheelbarrow loads in just a few hours.

But the second week you look around and it's taking longer to do each wheelbarrow. Why? All the low hanging fruit are gone. You have to carry a ladder with you. It's far more work to climb up and get those higher up apples, then you have to climb down again just to move the ladder when you could just walk before - then you climb up again. This for every branch! You realise at the end of the first week that you're never going to be able to fill 2 barrow loads a day again!

It's the same with oil. Conventional oil is the great stuff in just the right spot. While no one ever shot a hole in the ground 'and up came a bubbling crude - oil that is - Texas tea - black gold." (Beverly Hillbillies) - it WAS a whole bunch easier to mine conventional oil fields with those nodding donkey drills than it is to use high tech horizontal mining of the deep-sea floor many kilometres below sea level! That's a whole lot more expensive kit - and a whole lot harder to mine!

Or the extra ingredients and energy in shale oil or tar sands. Watch some YouTube documentaries on the extra energy it takes to extract that stuff.

Bottom line? We've used all the cheap stuff. Now comes the more expensive, less abundant harder half of the oil age. We're not RUNNING OUT of oil any time soon - but we are going to start running down. We have to. And the global market has to keep the price at a higher point than has been the average for decades. I'm not saying where exactly on the 'peak' we are standing - from our perspective it looks more like a plateau.

​

But here are the facts you seem unable to absorb:-​

1. The last time we found more oil than we burned was 1985.​

2. Since the industrial revolution, we have burned 1.3 to 1.5 TRILLION barrels of oil.​

View attachment 367789

The good news?
EV's are here, and growing cheaper and penetrating markets faster.
Your objections are rubbish.
The world has truly mind-bogglingly vast resources of cheap alternative renewable energy available.
Backing all of that up is not a problem when you overbuild supply so that:-
1. Everything runs on electricity
2. The overbuilt capacity is not 'extra' just to 'firm' supply - but is actually doing economically profitable work.
3. This new super-grid can have afternoon Perth sunlight powering Sydney cooking in the dark!
4. It does not pollute - and does not empower oil Petro-tyrants, and can be shared economically and peacefully around the world.
5. Indeed - some see a future global grid being cheaper than continental-sized grids - and important renewable electricity trading might encourage more world peace.


Funny how you put an emphasis on burning a finite resource up as somehow being good 'stewards' of that resource!

Yet you don't seem to care about 'stewarding' the biosphere, saving 8 million lives a year from oil pollution, saving the world from well funded Petro-Dictators like Russia and the Middle East and Venezuela, and protecting a stable climate for future generations.

But oil!? Yeah - look out - Kathleen wants to 'steward it'.
Please - don't ever try to 'steward me' will you Kathleen?
I'm not sure you know what the word means.


"And again our green environment thrives on the fumes of the industrial world."
Oh great! What happened - did you talk to someone at church and they passed you your next denial talking point? I know where this is going - and no - it's not as simple as you think!

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