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Economy is worse off than we thought.

The Barbarian

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The US economy contracted in the beginning of the year at a much faster pace than previously reported, after new data factored in much weaker consumer spending.

Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic output, registered an annualized rate of -0.5% from January through March, the Commerce Department said Thursday in its third and final estimate. That’s worse than the 0.2% decline reported in the second estimate. GDP is adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation.

The latest estimate showed that consumer spending — the lifeblood of the US economy — was tepid in the beginning of the year. Spending in the first quarter grew at a rate of just 0.5%, down from 1.2% in an earlier estimate. That’s the weakest rate in more than four years.
 

durangodawood

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People buy too many things as it is.

They should buy used stuff more, repair things when theyre worn out, stay home, eat rice and beans, quit the streaming services and read the Bible by candlelight in the evening.
 
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The Barbarian

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People buy too many things as it is.

They should buy used stuff more, repair things when theyre worn out, stay home, eat rice and beans, quit the streaming services and read the Bible by candlelight in the evening.
Corporate America hates you.

Not many hippies left, God bless them.
 
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wing2000

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People buy too many things as it is.

They should buy used stuff more, repair things when theyre worn out, stay home, eat rice and beans, quit the streaming services and read the Bible by candlelight in the evening.

....asking Americans to conserve is a tall order. Just ask Jimmy Carter.
 
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durangodawood

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....asking Americans to conserve is a tall order. Just ask Jimmy Carter.
Americans need a continuous stream of new things to keep their minds from wandering toward the horror we're creating.
 
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NxNW

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They should buy used stuff more, repair things when theyre worn out, stay home, eat rice and beans, quit the streaming services and read the Bible by candlelight in the evening.
Dave Ramsey, is that you?
 
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The Barbarian

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Lol, And Barbarian has been arguing that conservatives are motivated by fear.
Far-right. Not all conservatives. Reagan, Goldwater, McCain, for example were not fear-driven. The thing is, Trump's abortive tariff waffling hurt American more than we expected.
 
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ThatRobGuy

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The latest estimate showed that consumer spending — the lifeblood of the US economy — was tepid in the beginning of the year. Spending in the first quarter grew at a rate of just 0.5%, down from 1.2% in an earlier estimate. That’s the weakest rate in more than four years.



While there has certainly been a downturn, I'm assuming their qualifier of "in the past 4 years" was no accident in order to make the issue seem worse than what it is.

Disclaimer, yes the estimates of 0.5%-1.2% still represent a drop of no matter what....


However, if you lay that out next to the 4 years that included the post-Covid reopening spending boom, it's going to look even worse.


1750952023495.png


Vs.
1750952063822.png




That'd be sort of like saying "the growth rate of dining out has dropped to it's lowest level since 2021"...well yeah, because the growth rate is going to be huge in the period where restaurants went from closed to open... but that growth rate obviously will taper down.
 
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Laeomis

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FYI, the plan is not to expand the U.S. economy, but to contract it. GDP is not a completely good measure to measure the U.S. economy with. In fact, a high GDP might not mean that the economy is better off, but worse off. This is because GDP measures the price of which products are sold, and not the quantity. This means high inflation. Inflation was sky-high since the pandemic.

During the pandemic inflation was artificially caused in order to combat the recession. GDP raised, but the not the quantity of goods sold, but the price was raised. This is done by pushing production past its potential. In an economy, production cannot go past a certain point that is determined by a nation's technology. This point is known as the the production potential, or the long run aggregate supply curve (LRAS). If production is pushed past this point, then the price of goods raise, but quantity does not raise. At this point the national supply curve is vertical, asymptote, and only the price of goods will rise, not the quantity. This was done on purpose to raise prices and fight the predicted recession from the pandemic. Now that we are in a conservative administration, the plan has changed.

Conservatives believe in contractionary policies, lowering prices and inflation. In order to fight inflation, GDP must be lowered below the LRAS potential point. There is an economic concept called the Phillip's Curve, and this curve says that as unemployment rises, inflation falls. As inflation falls so do prices. Raising taxes (tariffs) and cutting government spending are all ways to lower production, and inflation. Consumer spending must also stop. These economical laws and theories are very paradoxical, but in the long run are for the best.

Here is a graph showing how GDP within the last 5 years has been artificially raised by pushing production past its potential in order to raise prices. More products were not produced, but the price was raised, which means higher GDP. This is not exactly good for the economy. It is a technique to combat recession.

Data comes from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
1750952376581.png


Here is the concept of the LRAS curve, and how it becomes vertical. If production is pushed along the vertical curve, then only prices will raise, but quantity will not. Quantity is measured on the horizontal axis, and price is measured on the vertical axis of the graphs. LRAS is the long run aggregate supply curve, and AD is the aggregate demand curve for a whole nation.

1750952624554.png
 
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The Barbarian

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durangodawood

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Like immigrants committing crimes, eating your cats. Stuff like that.
Like a big new crime wave. And eating your cats, of course.

"Poisoning the blood of our country". That sort of pathologizing of other sets of decent people. Thats all about fear.
 
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Laeomis

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"And a man's foes shall be they of his own household." (Matthew 10:36).

When you watch the news, and it says that the president is ruining the economy, take this with a grain of salt. The main stream news is definitely trying to sway your opinion. Its explanation of the economy is very shallow, and it is only scratching the surface when telling the public what it wants them to know. Is it considered lying if it knowingly only gives some surface information to a very complex issue? I think it is intentionally lying when it denies economic principles I assume the 'experts' understand. The president is not trying to ruin the economy, but the news slanders a complex issue to try and fool the public into rebelling based on their fears.
 
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bèlla

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They should buy used stuff more, repair things when theyre worn out, stay home, eat rice and beans, quit the streaming services and read the Bible by candlelight in the evening.

What a depressing image. ~lol

The rice and beans brings Ramsey to mind. I was in a Facebook group years ago and they would talk about their meals and post pictures and it made me sick! Never again. I avoid frugal content. You hear things you don’t expect. There’s some wisdom shared but they cross lines I can’t. But I am an advocate for self-sufficiency.

~bella
 
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durangodawood

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What a depressing image. ~lol

The rice and beans brings Ramsey to mind. I was in a Facebook group years ago and they would talk about their meals and post pictures and it made me sick! Never again. I avoid frugal content. You hear things you don’t expect. There’s some wisdom shared but they cross lines I can’t. But I am an advocate for self-sufficiency.

~bella
My post went from serious to silly over the course of a sentence.

I do believe we acquire too much stuff overall. Too much for our own health and the health of our world. But I also believe in eating well and having the resources to afford various fun experiences.
 
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public hermit

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My post went from serious to silly over the course of a sentence.

It definitely threw me off. I was all for it until you got to the candlelight bit, and then I thought, "He's kidding." I do wonder what would happen to our economy if the masses decided to not be such consumers.
 
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public hermit

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What a depressing image. ~lol

The rice and beans brings Ramsey to mind. I was in a Facebook group years ago and they would talk about their meals and post pictures and it made me sick! Never again. I avoid frugal content. You hear things you don’t expect. There’s some wisdom shared but they cross lines I can’t. But I am an advocate for self-sufficiency.

~bella

I eat a lot of rice and beans not to be frugal but because I really like it. A little hot sauce, add cornbread, and I'm good. I did start making rice and beans in school because I was broke, but I've never lost the taste for them. Seriously, I probably make a pot of brown beans (pintos) a week.
 
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