College Commencements Playing Taps instead of Pomp and Circumstance?

I wonder sometimes if you read the information you post.

Psst.... - they were commenting on the economic situation during BIDEN - not President Trump

IMHO - the only thing we should play taps over is the logic in the OP

Fantine said:

To the contrary, Krugman was using statistics in a 2023 survey by the National Bureau of Economic Research and applying it to the situation at hand.

The situation at hand--a terrible job market for 2025 grads, which could have been prevented by capable, stable leadership--will follow these graduates for many years.

Based on the results of a longitudinal study about college graduates who did not find jobs in their fields in 2023.

Click to expand...

Does he have a crystal ball? Or does he talk to the dead? We are six months into the Presidents term.

Where are economically?

Inflation is down
Fuel costs are down
Numerous companies are investing multiple billions in our country
Unemployment Rate has virtually not changed.
Food costs are down

That is what the reality is.

No need to worry. There will be many more job opportunities at meat packing plants, industrial food processors, gardening companies, janitorial services, and agricultural producers this year! Jobs a-plenty!

The IbanezerScrooge said:

No need to worry. There will be many more job opportunities at meat packing plants, industrial food processors, gardening companies, janitorial services, and agricultural producers this year! Jobs a-plenty!

Click to expand...

Plenty of room for able bodied persons to get off welfare! Even more money saved!

Fantine said:

To the contrary, Krugman was using statistics in a 2023 survey by the National Bureau of Economic Research and applying it to the situation at hand.

The situation at hand--a terrible job market for 2025 grads, which could have been prevented by capable, stable leadership--will follow these graduates for many years.

Based on the results of a longitudinal study about college graduates who did not find jobs in their fields in 2023.

Click to expand...

What fields are those? I've heard in the news that many get degrees in fields for which there are few if any jobs available.

Fantine said:

Everything you cited has little or no backup.

Click to expand...

Hey! It is the very same level of proof you provide.

Fantine said:

To the contrary, Krugman was using statistics in a 2023 survey by the National Bureau of Economic Research and applying it to the situation at hand.

The situation at hand--a terrible job market for 2025 grads, which could have been prevented by capable, stable leadership--will follow these graduates for many years.

Based on the results of a longitudinal study about college graduates who did not find jobs in their fields in 2023.

Click to expand...

Are we talking about the same Paul Krugman who made this bold prediction?




Other economists have weighed in on that as well, and didn't have quite the single-threaded Krugman assessment of "all negative outcomes stem from Trump".

While economic uncertainty is a component, many of the factors making things tough for recent college grads go back a ways...

Factors such as
Underemployment due to skills mismatch (meaning, increasing numbers of college grads majored in something that's not terribly marketable)

Rising costs of tuition

Diminishing returns on a degree (in fields that used to require them, artificially giving grads less competition from people without degrees) in key tech sectors. (personal anecdote, the last few Software Devs I've hired didn't have a degree, just vocational certifications)

College degrees losing their "distinctiveness". -- Much like what happened with HS diplomas between 1940-1965. Initially, they would open the door to a better job if you had one, until they became a baseline expectation and almost everyone had one, thus no longer making them special.

One economist quipped: “The hiring data doesn’t care about your passions. When 62% of Art History majors are underemployed and half of Philosophy graduates can’t pay their loans, yet the number of people signing up to pursue those degrees is increasing, something has to change.”


While "capable, stable leadership" could address the economic uncertainty aspect... all of the other things listed were going to happen regardless of the political circumstances.

Even in the best of economic conditions under the most middle of the road stable leader ever, an $80k loan for a degree that's not highly marketable is still going to result in some financial heartburn for many folks.



The absolute best thing that could be done to improve the situation for those who want to go to college? The bipartisan proposal from a few years back that sought to make the universities themselves co-signers on the loans their recruiters were encouraging people to take out.

Meaning: "Okay, you want to sell this kid on the idea of getting a Master's in philosophy? Fine, but if they end up stuck working in a bookstore for $15/hour and can't pay the loan back, you're on the hook for it, not the kid"

The IbanezerScrooge said:

No need to worry. There will be many more job opportunities at meat packing plants, industrial food processors, gardening companies, janitorial services, and agricultural producers this year! Jobs a-plenty!

Click to expand...

What an elitist point of view. Is there something wrong with those jobs? Are those jobs somehow to be looked down upon?

ThatRobGuy said:

The absolute best thing that could be done to improve the situation for those who want to go to college? The bipartisan proposal from a few years back that sought to make the universities themselves co-signers on the loans their recruiters were encouraging people to take out.

Meaning: "Okay, you want to sell this kid on the idea of getting a Master's in philosophy? Fine, but if they end up stuck working in a bookstore for $15/hour and can't pay the loan back, you're on the hook for it, not the kid"

Click to expand...

I have been supporting this for a LONG time. Far too many kids have gone to College, racked up a lot of debt only to leave and not be able to earn enough money to pay that debt off.

We should absolutely put colleges on the hook for this. If they are going to charge kids the amount of money they charge their services ought to be worth something. And if the kid cannot get a job worth paying off the debt, then the degree is NOT worth the cost. And colleges should be on the hook for that. Perhaps we'd have fewer Philosophy and Gender Studies majors.

Fantine said:

And who's to blame? The usual culprit!

Click to expand...

Yes, Universities are to blame for charging kids enormous amounts of money for useless degrees.

Companies having to remain their people? Why? Its because colleges are not producing kids with the necessary skills. Another waste of money.

Federal employees flooding the market? What does that mean exactly? What market and what jobs are being taken by Federal employees? Seems like a lot of speculation here. And what's the point of this? That we should keep Federal employees just so that other college grads can get a job?

What does erratic immigration policies have to do with Ametican kids getting jobs in the fields they went to school for? I thought illegal immigrants only did jobs Americans wont do. Doesn't sound like this should be an issue.

Reduced research investment. Maybe some of that is valid, depending on the research. But I certainly could find a lot of research thats being paid for by the taxpayers that are a total waste of money. Some research is very important. Others, not so much.

How about kids not go to College and rack up loans on useless degrees and we focus on actually educating kids for four years how to actually do the job rhey went to school for. How about we put universities on the hook for the loans kids cant pay back because they got a degree that doesn't pay enough or they cant use.

Fantine said:

Unemployment is up. The FED predicts the lowest growth in many years, about 1.6%, much much lower than it was during the Biden Administration. I did notice eggs were cheaper but gas is going up.

The future always seems so rosy when predicted by the less knowledgeable.

Everything you cited has little or no backup.

The Fed knows what it's doing.

Click to expand...

The reader will note - there is no back up in the post.

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 139,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was
unchanged at 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment
continued to trend up in health care, leisure and hospitality, and social assistance. Federal
government continued to lose jobs.

The unemployment rate held at 4.2 percent in May and has remained in a narrow range of 4.0
percent to 4.2 percent since May 2024. The number of unemployed people, at 7.2 million,
changed little over the month. (See table A-1.)

rjs330 said:

I have been supporting this for a LONG time. Far too many kids have gone to College, racked up a lot of debt only to leave and not be able to earn enough money to pay that debt off.

We should absolutely put colleges on the hook for this. If they are going to charge kids the amount of money they charge their services ought to be worth something. And if the kid cannot get a job worth paying off the debt, then the degree is NOT worth the cost. And colleges should be on the hook for that. Perhaps we'd have fewer Philosophy and Gender Studies majors.

Click to expand...

Other forms of loans have certain protections behind them

For instance, when you get a car loan in most states, you're protected by the "Lemon Laws" if you were sold something that wasn't as advertised, they failed to disclose known flaws, or didn't it work.

At which point, the people who sold you the car are required to replace it with something that does work at their own expense, or buy you out of your loan.


Colleges are one of the few kinds of institutions where you can make a high dollar purchase to receive a good/service, and have it not be effective (through no fault of your own) half the time.

Granted, it's been 20 years since I was in college, but I remember how aggressive those admissions/recruiting reps are.

2 months before graduation, I already had a job offer, and they were still doing the high pressure sales pitch to get me to sign on the dotted line for another 2 years for a more "advanced degree" claiming it would help the job prospects, which would've equated to another $15-20k in loans at that time. (and delay me entering my field by another 2 years)


Point of reference, while my field is impacted by the "cohort effect"... a lot of the higher earners entered the field during a time when a degree was still a requirement and been in it for longer explaining the higher salaries, if you remove that and look at just the past 6 years.

Sources: Springboard,Indeed,BLS -- used perplexity to generate the table

Any college recruiter still selling kids on IT-related degrees (claiming that a Bachelor's or Master's is the pathway to bigger money), is just flat out lying to them...you're pretty much just as well off with Certificates.

Heck, even the difference between difference between the "No Degree/Self-taught" category and the others isn't a substantial enough difference to make a $400/month student loan payment for the next decade "worth it".