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Economic Times: Was 2024 Legit? Voting machines under scrutiny

rambot

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Kamala Harris won the U.S elections: Bombshell report claims voting machines were tampered with before 2024


I'd put it in the "Conspiracy Theory" forum but unfortunately.....
A quiet but major change to voting machines by Pro V&V—used in over 40% of U.S. counties—was never publicly reviewed or disclosed. Watchdog group SMART Elections flagged suspicious updates, missing votes, and statistical anomalies suggesting potential vote tampering.

There appears to be some actual evidence that these voting machines were problematic.

What was the problem with the other voting machines in 2020 again? As I recall, there WERE no problems and those lawsuits fell flat and were met with counter suits in the billions when no wrong doing was found.


I would expect Pro V&V to take the EXACT same steps if these allegations are proven.

I mean Trump has been quoted as implying that there was some nefarious stuff around computers.

Ultimately, it's not as if Trump will lose power. He would "get impeached" again but Republicans who are not interested in democracy will have no interest in getting rid of him.


In what ways are these accusations THE SAME as 2020 and in what ways are they DIFFERENT? I feel like some mouth breathers are going to see these two situations as carbon copies of each other. There are certainly similarities, but there are also vERY important differences.


Thoughts?
 

RocksInMyHead

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Your choice of India Times as a source is...unfortunate, as they have a history of massively over-sensationalizing stuff like this (see the headline). That said, I think there are some data points out there that are worth investigating further. The "drop-off" numbers reported by SMART elections (a non-partisan election security nonprofit) certainly look suspicious, with Trump significantly outperforming down-ballot Republicans and Harris underperforming relative to down-ballot Democrats almost everywhere, especially in swing states.

See:




Similarly, the significant updates to voting machines being pushed through quietly also raises some red flags.

In what way is this the same as 2020? Obviously, in both cases, the election results are being called into question after the fact, with the implication that the "winning" candidate did not truly win the election. Also in both cases, irregularities with voting machines are one of the prime supposed culprits.

How does it differ? In 2020, the calls of election fraud from Trump's team started well before the election, and were immediately amplified as soon as the results were announced. Armies of lawyers immediately hit the ground running to file lawsuits in as many states and districts as possible. In contrast, we're only just starting to hear any publicization of substantive challenges to the 2024 results now - 7 months after the election. Additionally, while voting machines were one of the primary aspects of challenges to the 2020 election, there were also many, many accusations of a large-scale conspiracy that would have, by necessity, required the coordination of tens of thousands (or more) of individuals - none of whom spoke up about this anywhere. The allegations for 2024, on the other hand, are much more focused and could potentially involve very few individuals. Furthermore, we don't see a focused media blitz, with administration officials and news personalities making unsupported claims of fraud. Rather, one or two independent, non-partisan groups seem to be investigating this of their own volition, with just one lawsuit filed so far, and that with a very limited scope (and well-supported by credible evidence).

I don't know if any substantive issues will be revealed by a closer examination of these claims, but I fully support their investigation - just as I fully supported investigation into the claims from 2020.
 
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rambot

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Your choice of India Times as a source is...unfortunate, as they have a history of massively over-sensationalizing stuff like this (see the headline). That said, I think there are some data points out there that are worth investigating further. The "drop-off" numbers reported by SMART elections (a non-partisan election security nonprofit) certainly look suspicious, with Trump significantly outperforming down-ballot Republicans and Harris underperforming relative to down-ballot Democrats almost everywhere, especially in swing states.

See:




Similarly, the significant updates to voting machines being pushed through quietly also raises some red flags.

In what way is this the same as 2020? Obviously, in both cases, the election results are being called into question after the fact, with the implication that the "winning" candidate did not truly win the election. Also in both cases, irregularities with voting machines are one of the prime supposed culprits.

How does it differ? In 2020, the calls of election fraud from Trump's team started well before the election, and were immediately amplified as soon as the results were announced. Armies of lawyers immediately hit the ground running to file lawsuits in as many states and districts as possible. In contrast, we're only just starting to hear any publicization of substantive challenges to the 2024 results now - 7 months after the election. Additionally, while voting machines were one of the primary aspects of challenges to the 2020 election, there were also many, many accusations of a large-scale conspiracy that would have, by necessity, required the coordination of tens of thousands (or more) of individuals - none of whom spoke up about this anywhere. The allegations for 2024, on the other hand, are much more focused and could potentially involve very few individuals. Furthermore, we don't see a focused media blitz, with administration officials and news personalities making unsupported claims of fraud. Rather, one or two independent, non-partisan groups seem to be investigating this of their own volition, with just one lawsuit filed so far, and that with a very limited scope (and well-supported by credible evidence).

I don't know if any substantive issues will be revealed by a closer examination of these claims, but I fully support their investigation - just as I fully supported investigation into the claims from 2020.
I did take a second to check their "reliability". They were rated "centre-right" and "mixed" reviews for their fact based reporting.

I agree; not the most sterling source. I'm sure this story could be found somewhere else though.
 
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rambot

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I will say a LOT of what's happenning here in this situation is suspect (interesting that the company went close to completely "Dark" once the investigation started).

I expect to see more out of this ONE claim than out of the mountain of claims put forward by Republicans in 2020.

And it makes sense because now his supporters will just "kvetch" about him being a victim instead of considering the possibility/probability of the evidence suggesting bad stuff.

There certainly seems enough here for their to be a robust discussion of outcomes.
 
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ThatRobGuy

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Your choice of India Times as a source is...unfortunate, as they have a history of massively over-sensationalizing stuff like this (see the headline). That said, I think there are some data points out there that are worth investigating further. The "drop-off" numbers reported by SMART elections (a non-partisan election security nonprofit) certainly look suspicious, with Trump significantly outperforming down-ballot Republicans and Harris underperforming relative to down-ballot Democrats almost everywhere, especially in swing states.

I don't know that the down-ballot performance necessarily throws up any huge red flags given the regional aspects of our political parties.

Depending on the state/locale, there are instances where the candidate outflanks their party's voter base (ideologically) in certain areas, but in some other locales, it's the other way around.
(as where a more regional down-ballot candidate can tailor their campaign & positions specifically to that one jurisdiction -- presidential candidates don't have that same luxury)

Harris got trapped in the situation where she was "too left" for some midwestern and southern democrats, but "not left enough" for democrats on the west coast.
 
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Oompa Loompa

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Kamala Harris won the U.S elections: Bombshell report claims voting machines were tampered with before 2024


I'd put it in the "Conspiracy Theory" forum but unfortunately.....


There appears to be some actual evidence that these voting machines were problematic.

What was the problem with the other voting machines in 2020 again? As I recall, there WERE no problems and those lawsuits fell flat and were met with counter suits in the billions when no wrong doing was found.


I would expect Pro V&V to take the EXACT same steps if these allegations are proven.

I mean Trump has been quoted as implying that there was some nefarious stuff around computers.

Ultimately, it's not as if Trump will lose power. He would "get impeached" again but Republicans who are not interested in democracy will have no interest in getting rid of him.


In what ways are these accusations THE SAME as 2020 and in what ways are they DIFFERENT? I feel like some mouth breathers are going to see these two situations as carbon copies of each other. There are certainly similarities, but there are also vERY important differences.


Thoughts?
Do you dare to question the legitimacy of one of our presidential elections?! Gasp! (Clutching pearls) That is a threat to our democracy. So I am told.
 
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rambot

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Do you dare to question the legitimacy of one of our presidential elections?! Gasp! (Clutching pearls) That is a threat to our democracy. So I am told.
Someday, perhaps soon, you may be able to tell the difference between "evidence" and "no evidence".

It may be a glorious day.
 
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rambot

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I don't know that the down-ballot performance necessarily throws up any huge red flags given the regional aspects of our political parties.

Depending on the state/locale, there are instances where the candidate outflanks their party's voter base (ideologically) in certain areas, but in some other locales, it's the other way around.
(as where a more regional down-ballot candidate can tailor their campaign & positions specifically to that one jurisdiction -- presidential candidates don't have that same luxury)

Harris got trapped in the situation where she was "too left" for some midwestern and southern democrats, but "not left enough" for democrats on the west coast.
You're a computer guy Rob.

What are your thoughts on the meat of this investigation?
 
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Oompa Loompa

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Someday, perhaps soon, you may be able to tell the difference between "evidence" and "no evidence".

It may be a glorious day.
I know what evidence is.

Makes Trump look bad = evidence.
Makes Joe or Hunter Biden look bad = not evidence.
 
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ThatRobGuy

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You're a computer guy Rob.

What are your thoughts on the meat of this investigation?
Admittedly, I'm not necessarily impressed the particular article...I've been looking around for other articles that can corroborate it to get more info.

The first thing that jumped out at me with this article is their loose use of the word "tampered" (which is meant to imply something more nefarious)

When in fact, what they're describing was a printer firmware upgrade...

"Tampered" implies that there were "dark forces at work".


Also, the "impacted states" they mentioned. They labelled them all as "Key states"...

But PA was the only key state I saw mentioned that was an "anyone's game" type of state.

The others they listed were California, Florida, New Jersey -- and some examples from New York. (let's be honest, we knew what the outcomes in those states were going to be -- Florida's red, Cali NY and NJ are deep blue)

The elephant in the room is that a lot of democrats (especially ones in the deep blue areas) were somewhat disenfranchised by her not taking an overtly pro-Palestine stance pertaining to the Gaza conflict.

Per a YouGov/Ipsos poll:
Of the 19 million voters who backed Biden in 2020 but did not vote for Harris in 2024, 31 percent cited ending Israel’s violence in Gaza as their top issue

 
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RocksInMyHead

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I don't know that the down-ballot performance necessarily throws up any huge red flags given the regional aspects of our political parties.
There are certainly explanations for the phenomenon that don't involve fraud, but given that the normal amount of drop-off is around 1% or less, and (nationally), Trump saw a +5% drop-off while Harris saw a -2% drop-off, that's a sign that something different was going on in 2024. No matter whether that was purely voter behavior or something nefarious, I'm curious to know the cause.

The full dataset on drop-off is available here: SMART Elections
 
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ThatRobGuy

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There are certainly explanations for the phenomenon that don't involve fraud, but given that the normal amount of drop-off is around 1% or less, and (nationally), Trump saw a +5% drop-off while Harris saw a -2% drop-off, that's a sign that something different was going on in 2024. No matter whether that was purely voter behavior or something nefarious, I'm curious to know the cause.

The full dataset on drop-off is available here: SMART Elections
It's a statistical anomaly, but not a surprising one given our current political backdrop.

A lot of things involving Trump have been anomalies compared to the status quo people were used to seeing in past election cycles and political climates. We're living in an era where republicans turned on Bush and Romney for not being "sufficiently conservative enough" despite the fact that behavior-wise, they were actually more conservative than Trump.

Trump is also one of the first who has "gone hard" on fellow republicans at lower levels of government. When you look at the states that they claim were impacted (CA, NY, NJ)... It's not a huge shocker. If a republican in any of those states wants even a snowball's chance in hell of winning, they can't run a "hard-right campaign", and when they tailor their positions to lean into the positions of their locale, he bashes them for it.


I still think the cause for the Harris statistic is the domestic situation created by the Gaza conflict.

Dearborn, MI was a textbook example of that.

Trump got 42%
Harris got 36%
Jill Stein got the rest

...that's an anomaly.

That was a "long & strong" democratic district prior to this election.

Harris was wishy washy and tailored her responses to whatever crowd she happened to be speaking to and was rife with non-committal answers. Trump simply said "I'll end the conflict" (albeit, falsely, obviously there's still conflict going on there)
 
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RocksInMyHead

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It's a statistical anomaly, but not a surprising one given our current political backdrop.
Which is why I'm not insisting that fraud is involved.
I still think the cause for the Harris statistic is the domestic situation created by the Gaza conflict.

Dearborn, MI was a textbook example of that.
Dearborn is hardly representative of the country as a whole, given its large Muslim population. The conflict in Gaza would have a much larger impact on the election there than most other places.

Wayne County didn't have significant drop-off for Harris though - she actually slightly outperformed the Democratic Senate candidate there.

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BPPLEE

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Kamala Harris won the U.S elections: Bombshell report claims voting machines were tampered with before 2024


I'd put it in the "Conspiracy Theory" forum but unfortunately.....


There appears to be some actual evidence that these voting machines were problematic.

What was the problem with the other voting machines in 2020 again? As I recall, there WERE no problems and those lawsuits fell flat and were met with counter suits in the billions when no wrong doing was found.


I would expect Pro V&V to take the EXACT same steps if these allegations are proven.

I mean Trump has been quoted as implying that there was some nefarious stuff around computers.

Ultimately, it's not as if Trump will lose power. He would "get impeached" again but Republicans who are not interested in democracy will have no interest in getting rid of him.


In what ways are these accusations THE SAME as 2020 and in what ways are they DIFFERENT? I feel like some mouth breathers are going to see these two situations as carbon copies of each other. There are certainly similarities, but there are also vERY important differences.


Thoughts?
Election denier accusations come to mind
 
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rambot

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Election denier accusations come to mind
I haven't denied the election.

What I HAVE done is pointed out that:
*A company whose voting machines are used in 40% of counties made some (argued in court to be) significant changes to its machines in the lead up to the election but labelled those changes as small so they would not come under scrutiny.
*The article also notes that, under sworn affidavit, several voting citizens report that their reported vote was CHANGED on those machines.
*And that a court ACTUALLY decided that there was sufficient evidence for further inquiry.


That's not election denying at all. Remember when every Trump supporter was screaming about how "we just want to check." and the dozens upon dozens of court cases went absolutely and laughably no where? THAT was election result denying as there was no proof of large systemic problems; nor even an avenue to create such a thing.

Here we have a case moving forward in the court.
 
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