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Any thoughts on this "educated guess" about the ultimate impact Trump's Tax policy?

civilwarbuff

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Incorrect. They did not "guess" and they certainly didn't "just guess". That kind of label suggests it's capricious and not based on anything concrete.

That is not the case here.
OK. Pour the concrete for us if you can.
I know enough about negotiation tactics that if you make a threat and don't follow through, you're going to be seen as weak and stupid.
That's very true; just ask Obama about his 'red line' threat. He really made people quake in their boots after that.....
I'm truly confused why you think Trump may be above criticism on this matter
I'm not; but then I am not the one guessing about results of something that has not even happened yet.....unlike yourself and others here.....
 
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civilwarbuff

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I am quite sure those other nations, who in example caused us to have to bail out our farmers; given Trump's "I got this one hammer because every problem looks like an nail" have been strategizing ahead.
And of course YOU know it is going to fail because of what?......your omniscience?.....your fortune telling credentials?.....because the woolly worms aren't so woolly this year? You are simply guessing just like the rest of the naysayers (read: leftist progressives who hate Trump no matter if he succeeds or not) here? That ship already sailed; you missed the boat.
 
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Say it aint so

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Last time, China turned to Brazil for soybeans (and more recently corn) and though that fight has eased some, that business hasn't completely come back to the US. That's just lost business for US farmers. Next up, beef.

US agriculture in crosshairs as Brazil and China cozy up

But now Brazil is looking to beef up – literally – its agricultural trade ties with China and capitalize on potential tariff escalations between the United States and China once President-elect Donald Trumpbegins his second term in January.

Hailed as a historic move, China back in March cleared an additional 38 Brazilian meat exporters, bringing the total to 144. Shipments have not significantly increased since then, but... [they're certainly ready to do so at a moment's notice]
Well, there it is.
 
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Say it aint so

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And of course YOU know it is going to fail because of what?......your omniscience?.....your fortune telling credentials?.....because the woolly worms aren't so woolly this year? You are simply guessing just like the rest of the naysayers (read: leftist progressives who hate Trump no matter if he succeeds or not) here? That ship already sailed; you missed the boat.
I based what I think on what happened last time:
Amid Trump Tariffs, Farm Bankruptcies And Suicides Rise
US to give farmers $12bn trade war bailout
Crops are rotting in fields as Trump's trade war bites US farmers
U.S.-China trade war has cost up to 245,000 U.S. jobs
And this echoing what I said:
A Trade War May Not Go Trump’s Way. China Has His Number.
 
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civilwarbuff

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Another view......

In addition, trade wars are far from the only factor at play for farmers in Wisconsin and nationwide.

Reuters described it this way:

The increase in (2019 bankruptcies) had been somewhat expected, bankruptcy experts and agricultural economists said, as farmers face trade battles, ever-mounting farm debt, prolonged low commodity prices, volatile weather patterns and a fatal pig disease that has decimated China’s herd.

John Newton, chief economist at the Farm Bureau, cited many of the same factors in an interview with PolitiFact Wisconsin.

"The farm bankruptcies are a function of not only retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agriculture by China, but also years of low commodity prices created by a global economic slowdown and large supplies of grains, oilseeds and livestock products internationally and recent natural disasters," Newton said in an email. "I don’t think you can lay the blame of higher farm bankruptcies on the retaliatory tariffs alone."

Our ruling
Speaking in Manitowoc, Biden said Trump started a trade war that "led to a surge in farm bankruptcies."

The trade wars have indeed hit farmers hard. And bankruptcies rose at the height of the trade wars, increasing more than they had in the four prior years.

But this claim oversimplifies by listing the trade wars alone as being responsible for that increase.

We define Half True as a statement that is partially accurate but leaves out important details or takes things out of context. That fits here.

This fact check is available at IFCN’s 2020 US Elections FactChat #Chatbot on WhatsApp. Click here, for more.
 
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Say it aint so

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Another view......

In addition, trade wars are far from the only factor at play for farmers in Wisconsin and nationwide.

Reuters described it this way:

The increase in (2019 bankruptcies) had been somewhat expected, bankruptcy experts and agricultural economists said, as farmers face trade battles, ever-mounting farm debt, prolonged low commodity prices, volatile weather patterns and a fatal pig disease that has decimated China’s herd.

John Newton, chief economist at the Farm Bureau, cited many of the same factors in an interview with PolitiFact Wisconsin.

"The farm bankruptcies are a function of not only retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agriculture by China, but also years of low commodity prices created by a global economic slowdown and large supplies of grains, oilseeds and livestock products internationally and recent natural disasters," Newton said in an email. "I don’t think you can lay the blame of higher farm bankruptcies on the retaliatory tariffs alone."

Our ruling
Speaking in Manitowoc, Biden said Trump started a trade war that "led to a surge in farm bankruptcies."

The trade wars have indeed hit farmers hard. And bankruptcies rose at the height of the trade wars, increasing more than they had in the four prior years.

But this claim oversimplifies by listing the trade wars alone as being responsible for that increase.

We define Half True as a statement that is partially accurate but leaves out important details or takes things out of context. That fits here.

This fact check is available at IFCN’s 2020 US Elections FactChat #Chatbot on WhatsApp. Click here, for more.
Also keep in mind the rise in bankruptcies occurred WITH the Trump bailout. It would have been higher if we didn't have to bail them out. I am just not sure why anyone would think something that even the article you provided noted was a cause in bankruptcies wouldn't happen again as other countries retaliate. As I said, we already seen it. And btw, this since the Trump era:

"According to the U.S. Courts, 139 farm bankruptcies were filed in 2023, down 18% from 2022. This continues a four-year decline since the decade high of 599 filings in 2019. Unfortunately, this downward trend in farm bankruptcies is unlikely to continue."
 
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Bradskii

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I will leave the guessing to you; not my forte.
Trump promised a drop in consumer prices. From Day 1. You won't find an economist who says that will happen when he introduces his tarrifs. Also on Day 1. If you can't read the writing on the wall then guessing is your only option.

Here's the spoiler. Prices aren't going to go down when he introduces tarrifs. Prices will in fact go up. And if he doesn't introduce them then he's going to be seen as all hat and no cattle. It's a lose lose situation.
 
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Bradskii

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You mean listen to other people guess?
No. Tea leaves and goat entrails I believe. But hey, you'll find out the truth soon enough. We'll be here to point it out to you.
 
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civilwarbuff

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No. Tea leaves and goat entrails I believe. But hey, you'll find out the truth soon enough. We'll be here to point it out to you.
I am sure you will. The real question is will you be there to point out that you were wrong when it happens? Forgive me if I don't hold my breath waiting for that to happen.
 
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essentialsaltes

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Last time, China turned to Brazil for soybeans (and more recently corn) and though that fight has eased some, that business hasn't completely come back to the US. That's just lost business for US farmers. Next up, beef.

US agriculture in crosshairs as Brazil and China cozy up

Next up Canadian oil. Obviously it's easier to ship to the US, but if tariffs alter the financials...

Canada eyes more ways to ship oil to China as U.S. threatens trade

Almost every day since the expansion of Canada’s Trans Mountain pipeline was completed in May, a tanker laden with oilsands crude shipped through the line has passed under Vancouver’s Lions Gate Bridge en route to refineries around the Pacific.

Even below its capacity, Trans Mountain is reshaping the global oil market. China is buying increasing amounts of Canadian crude, supplanting purchases from sanctioned countries including Iran and Russia. That’s also pressuring prices of Middle Eastern and Latin American crudes similar to Canada’s heavy oil. Meanwhile, Canadian oil prices had risen and steadied, at least until the tariff threats began.
 
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