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German government coalition collapses as Scholz sacks Finance Minister Lindner

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Nithavela

Nithavela

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Germany’s three-party ruling coalition collapsed on Wednesday evening after Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced he would fire his Finance Minister Christian Lindner over persistent disagreements about economic reforms.


Many in Germany had hoped that the victory of Donald Trump in the U.S. election earlier in the day would force the coalition to hold together over fears that the incoming president would give Europe’s biggest economy a hard ride — targeting its all-important car industry in a trade war.


Ultimately, however, not even the looming threat of Trump proved enough for the fractious parties to put aside their differences.
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www.politico.eu

Scholz sets stage for German snap election as government collapses

Germany’s chancellor said a confidence vote will first take place on Jan. 15 after announcing he would fire his finance minister.
www.politico.eu www.politico.eu
 
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mindlight

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Nithavela said:
www.politico.eu

Scholz sets stage for German snap election as government collapses

Germany’s chancellor said a confidence vote will first take place on Jan. 15 after announcing he would fire his finance minister.
www.politico.eu www.politico.eu
Click to expand...
The FDP have been a useful break on green and spd borrow and spend ambitions but it must be hard to integrate economic planning when one partner only knows how to say no.

With Trumps election it has become pretty urgent to have a strategy in place to ensure that German defence spending rises to a persistent 2% of GNP rather than the ad hoc basis with which it currently meets the NATO requirement. It will cost Germany a lot more to be thrown out of American NATO defensive planning. This is especially important at a time when policy on Ukraine war is up for grabs and the uncertainty weighs most heavily on Germany. Uncertainty is bad economics and the Chancellor needs to be able to set a plan for growth that takes Germany out of its current malaise. Maybe a coalition with the CDU would work better at this time for Germany and so an election is the best route for government change.
 
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Nithavela

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mindlight said:
The FDP have been a useful break on green and spd borrow and spend ambitions but it must be hard to integrate economic planning when one partner only knows how to say no.

With Trumps election it has become pretty urgent to have a strategy in place to ensure that German defence spending rises to a persistent 2% of GNP rather than the ad hoc basis with which it currently meets the NATO requirement. It will cost Germany a lot more to be thrown out of American NATO defensive planning. This is especially important at a time when policy on Ukraine war is up for grabs and the uncertainty weighs most heavily on Germany. Uncertainty is bad economics and the Chancellor needs to be able to set a plan for growth that takes Germany out of its current malaise. Maybe a coalition with the CDU would work better at this time for Germany and so an election is the best route for government change.
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There wouldn't even be a need for a new election. CDU and SPD have a majority of seats in the Bundestag, so they could rule together. The CDU has a lot to gain from new elections, though, so it's doubtful they play ball unless the SPD gives them huge control over any new governments out of hand.
 
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Nithavela said:
There wouldn't even be a need for a new election. CDU and SPD have a majority of seats in the Bundestag, so they could rule together. The CDU has a lot to gain from new elections, though, so it's doubtful they play ball unless the SPD gives them huge control over any new governments out of hand.
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If there was an election now Merz would get the Chancellorship but he would probably still need the SPD and the Greens to rule. Ideally, he would be able to get rid of the Greens as a three-party coalition is a little too unstable, though I would miss Habeck.

With the prospect of a Trump government, Germany needs a strong government restored before January ideally. The economy faces a perfect storm of high energy costs due to the Ukraine war, Chinese competition, and now the possibility of a trade war with the USA also over tariffs. Military spending needs to be boosted to a persistent 2% and Germany and its allies need to be equipped to support Ukraine even without American assistance if necessary.

www.politico.eu

Germany’s Merz urges Scholz to drastically move up timeline for snap election

Friedrich Merz, the leader of the center-right Christian Democrats and the probable next chancellor, demands a vote of confidence within days.
www.politico.eu www.politico.eu
 
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mindlight

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Nithavela said:
www.politico.eu

Scholz sets stage for German snap election as government collapses

Germany’s chancellor said a confidence vote will first take place on Jan. 15 after announcing he would fire his finance minister.
www.politico.eu www.politico.eu
Click to expand...

I guess the big issues that need dealing with are a response to the challenge of a Trump presidency, the malaise in the German economy, what to do if Trump abandons Ukraine, the rise of the AFD.

If Trump does end the Ukraine war on day one or soon after then there will be domestic pressure to cut military spending at a time when a continuance of the US Alliance depends on a 2% level, a boost to the economy and especially German manufacturing. In the light of reduced uncertainty and restored economic growth the support for the AFD might fade away quite quickly. So whoever gets elected might get a boost immediately following their election anyway.

Some implications of a Trump presidency - different definitions of freedom. American ones will be less supportive of the transgender madness or of killing the unborn than in Europe. Will Europe seek to define itself in opposition to Trump or work with him as far as possible to preserve the Europe-US alliance?
 
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