Trump Falls Behind Harris in Betting Market for First Time

xser88 · Aug 14, 2024

Trump Falls Behind Harris in Betting Market for First Time

Traders and oddsmakers now give Kamala Harris better odds than Trump of winning the 2024 presidential election

Former President Trump is no longer favored to beat Vice President Harris in the 2024 race for the White House, according to major betting markets tracked by FOX Business.

As of Monday morning, Harris surpassed Trump as the odds-on favorite to win the presidency on BetUS with 55% implied probability, marking the first time since the platform opened the market that the Democratic nominee took the lead.

Over the weekend, the two presidential contenders had been in a dead heat on the site.

Traders on prediction site PolyMarket also favored Harris on Monday, giving her a 51% chance of winning the race, compared to Trump's 46%. On PredictIt, where Harris has been leading Trump for weeks, bettors give Harris a 59% chance of winning, while Trump's odds fell to 43%.

"Not only is Harris now leading in the betting odds, but she is also leading in terms of the total number of wagers placed and total dollar volume bet so far, which is an impressive feat considering she only became the official nominee a week ago," BetUS director of public relations, Tim Williams, told FOX Business.

He added, "I personally wouldn’t have expected so much money to have been bet on Kamala so quickly, but here we are."

Williams went on to note it would appear that Harris is also attracting larger wagers than Trump, which in the sports betting world is often indicative of "sharp money," meaning more professional bettors.

Momentum for Harris continues to surge following President Biden's unprecedented decision to withdraw from the race last month.

A Wednesday poll from NPR, PBS and Marist found that Harris has a 3-point lead over Trump among registered voters, and a Thursday poll from Marquette Law School showed Harris has established a 4-point lead over the former president.

Trump falls behind Harris in betting market for first time

Traders on major betting sites now give Vice President Kamala Harris better odds of winning the 2024 election than former President Trump, for the first time in the race.

www.foxbusiness.com

Hammster · Aug 14, 2024

Seems like a lot of folks on the left are very easily manipulated.

xser88 · Aug 14, 2024

Hammster said:
Seems like a lot of folks on the left are very easily manipulated.

You think Trump is falling behind in the betting market because progressives are easily manipulated?

Other Headlines:

* Harris Leads Trump in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan
* Harris leads Trump in three key states, new poll shows
* Harris see huge shift in swing states.
* Nationally, Harris holds a small lead over Trump
* Kamala Harris Leads Donald Trump in 'Beer' Poll That Predicted Past Winners
* Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump by 42% to 37% in Ipsos poll, 5 points up
* Swing State Polls: Harris Surges Ahead Of Trump In Nearly Every Battleground

Would you attribute this as well to progressives being easily manipulated?

And it's mega referred to by many as "The Cult of Trump"?

Hammster · Aug 14, 2024

xser88 said:
You think Trump is falling behind in the betting market because progressives are easily manipulated?

Other Headlines:

* Harris Leads Trump in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan
* Harris leads Trump in three key states, new poll shows
* Harris see huge shift in swing states.
* Nationally, Harris holds a small lead over Trump
* Kamala Harris Leads Donald Trump in 'Beer' Poll That Predicted Past Winners
* Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump by 42% to 37% in Ipsos poll, 5 points up
* Swing State Polls: Harris Surges Ahead Of Trump In Nearly Every Battleground

Would you attribute this as well to progressives being easily manipulated?

And it's mega referred to by many as "The Cult of Trump"?

Yes. They don’t even know what they are supporting. She went from having the worst rating of a vice president to being the Golden Child. Somebody is being manipulated.

xser88 · Aug 14, 2024

Hammster said:
Yes. They don’t even know what they are supporting. She went from having the worst rating of a vice president to being the Golden Child. Somebody is being manipulated.

Cheney is easily the worst vice president ever along with Bush Jr being the worst president for starting an unnecessary war that resulted in about a million lives lost. Many, with myself would rate Trump as the worst modern-day person to be president and Bush and Cheney as the worst president and vice president.
"Manipulated"?
Again, interview after interviews of Trump supporters show why people call them "The Cult of Trump"

Ana the Ist · Aug 14, 2024

xser88 said:
View attachment 353273
Cheney is easily the worst vice president ever along with Bush Jr being the worst president for starting an unnecessary war that resulted in about a million lives lost. Many, with myself would rate Trump as the worst modern-day person to be president and Bush and Cheney as the worst president and vice president.
"Manipulated"?
Again, interview after interviews of Trump supporters show why people call them "The Cult of Trump"

What's the list from?

I mean...is it some opinion poll or??

Servus · Aug 14, 2024

xser88 said:
You think Trump is falling behind in the betting market because progressives are easily manipulated?

Other Headlines:

* Harris Leads Trump in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan
* Harris leads Trump in three key states, new poll shows
* Harris see huge shift in swing states.
* Nationally, Harris holds a small lead over Trump
* Kamala Harris Leads Donald Trump in 'Beer' Poll That Predicted Past Winners
* Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump by 42% to 37% in Ipsos poll, 5 points up
* Swing State Polls: Harris Surges Ahead Of Trump In Nearly Every Battleground

Would you attribute this as well to progressives being easily manipulated?

And it's mega referred to by many as "The Cult of Trump"?

Yes that's a pretty good example of manipulation. Especially people all sounding alike saying the same exact thing. I think if they were told to wear blue shirts every day for a week, they would all do it.

NxNW · Aug 14, 2024

ozso said:
Yes that's a pretty good example of manipulation. Especially people all sounding alike saying the same exact thing. I think if they were told to wear blue shirts every day for a week, they would all do it.

... which is totally different from red hats.

Larniavc · Aug 14, 2024

ozso said:
Yes that's a pretty good example of manipulation. Especially people all sounding alike saying the same exact thing. I think if they were told to wear blue shirts every day for a week, they would all do it.

So being ahead in the polls is manipulation. Can you explain the specifics of the manipulation?

iluvatar5150 · Aug 14, 2024

Hammster said:
Seems like a lot of folks on the left are very easily manipulated.

You're finally getting to experience what it's like to look out on 100 million people and wonder how they can so enthusiastically support someone.

Servus · Aug 14, 2024

iluvatar5150 said:
You're finally getting to experience what it's like to look out on 100 million people and wonder how they can so enthusiastically support someone.

It's the sudden display of hyper enthusiasm. Which certainly wasn't there in 2020 when she was vying for the democrat nomination. She got zero delegates and washed out early.

Servus · Aug 14, 2024

Larniavc said:
So being ahead in the polls is manipulation. Can you explain the specifics of the manipulation?

See above.

Servus · Aug 14, 2024

NxNW said:
... which is totally different from red hats.

No that would be the same as. But they're not supposed to be the same as.

Aside from that maybe half of them only wear red hats during a rally. Because the collective swarms and attacks anyone wearing a red hat anywhere else.

iluvatar5150 · Aug 14, 2024

ozso said:
It's they sudden display of hyper enthusiasm. Which certainly wasn't there in 2020 when she was vying for the democrat nomination. She got zero delegates and washed out early.

I'm not going to deny it's a bit puzzling - it is. But I think she's coming off as more personable than people remembered - a point on which Walz is certainly helping, and more than anything, I think a lot of people are starving for somebody who's not a corpse or a grifter.
Whatever the cause, it seems to be at least mostly organic, because it all happened way too fast to be the product of a media campaign.

Servus · Aug 14, 2024

iluvatar5150 said:
I'm not going to deny it's a bit puzzling - it is. But I think she's coming off as more personable than people remembered - a point on which Walz is certainly helping, and more than anything, I think a lot of people are starving for somebody who's not a corpse or a grifter.

See that's a result of manipulation if you're seeing Trump as a corpse. Trump is energetic, he's always been called manic and frenzied by his detractors. Now all of a sudden he's a corpse because Biden is a corpse.

iluvatar5150 · Aug 14, 2024

ozso said:
See that's a result of manipulation if you're seeing Trump as a corpse. Trump is energetic, he's always been called manic and frenzied by his detractors. Now all of a sudden he's a corpse because Biden is a corpse.

I was referring to Biden.

NxNW · Aug 14, 2024

ozso said:
It's they sudden display of hyper enthusiasm. Which certainly wasn't there in 2020 when she was vying for the democrat nomination. She got zero delegates and washed out early.

Reagan failed to secure the '76 nomination; what's your point?

Servus · Aug 14, 2024

NxNW said:
Reagan failed to secure the '76 nomination; what's your point?

What's your point with such a false equivalency? Ford and Regan were neck in neck with Regan finishing a very close 2nd place. Harris washed out halfway through in like 13th place. No one was interested in her.

A2SG · Aug 14, 2024

ozso said:
What's your point with such a false equivalency? Ford and Regan were neck in neck with Regan finishing a very close 2nd place. Harris washed out halfway through in like 13th place. No one was interested in her.

That could be attributed to a crowded field, lack of national recognition compared to other candidates, even possibly misogyny. Who can say?

Thing is, since then, having served as Vice President, Harris has more of a national profile than she had before. Plus, she entered the race at a time when Trump seemed all but assured of victory, and Biden was being touted as senile, or incompetent, or worse. She is seen as a breath of fresh air compared to Biden, and has created a lot of enthusiasm among democratic voters. Maybe it's been exaggerated, maybe not...but coming from the possibility of another disastrous Trump presidency, you can imagine why democrats would be hopeful for the first time in a while.

You don't have to agree, of course, but it's not hard to see if you take the MAGA blinders off for a minute.

-- A2SG, granted, some are unable to do that...even for a minute....

Larniavc · Aug 15, 2024

ozso said:
See above.

So you can’t? Seriously? Why bother to post at all if you can’t answer the most remedial of questions?

Trump Falls Behind Harris in Betting Market for First Time

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Trump Falls Behind Harris in Betting Market for First Time​

Traders and oddsmakers now give Kamala Harris better odds than Trump of winning the 2024 presidential election​

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Trump Falls Behind Harris in Betting Market for First Time

Traders and oddsmakers now give Kamala Harris better odds than Trump of winning the 2024 presidential election