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There would probably be too many confounding factors at play making isolation of that one aspect nearly impossible.I think the more usual version of that argument is that criminals could hack the database to find out which households didn't have a gun so it would be safe to attack.
But it would be interesting to look at burglary statistics for NYC to see if there was an uptick in burglaries of home protection handguns after the data leak.
There's been so much going on (in terms of outliers) from 2019 until now that it'd be very difficult to do that data exercise with any accuracy.
For what its worth, the Poynter Institute (a journalism school and the parent organization that actually owns and operates PolitiFact and a few other smaller publications like the Tampa Bay Times), was very critical of the move when it happened.
The Poynter Institute, a school for journalists, notes that some other news agencies have published various types of databases as well.
“Publishing gun owners’ names makes them targets for theft or public ridicule. It is journalistic arrogance to abuse public record privilege, just as it is to air 911 calls for no reason or to publish the home addresses of police or judges without cause,” Al Tompkins, a Poynter senior faculty member, said in a statement Wednesday. “Unwarranted publishing of the names of permitted owners just encourages gun owners to skip the permitting.”
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