It is Harris vs Trump Whether Biden Runs Or Not

mark46 · Jul 7, 2024

The reality is almost certain that Biden will not serve out 4 1/2 more years as president.

Biden may or may not be the candidate most likely to defeat Trump. I don't think so. However, if Biden is elected, Kamala Harris will be president sometime in the next 4 years.
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SOME THOUGHTS
The issue is who should lead the US in the next four years, NOT Biden's record over the last 3 1/2 years (which I think has been very good). Democrats would love to have a referendum on Biden's record. The issue is the future.
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BOTTOM LINE FOR DEMOCRATS
Should Biden run, expecting Harris to be president in a year or so.

Or should Harris run NOW.

IMO, Biden has likely already brought us to a Trump presidency. Harris is likely the only candidate that can unite the party and PERHAPS defeat Trump.

A Harris candidacy would very likely save the House for the Democrats.

Tropical Wilds · Jul 7, 2024

I don’t have faith Trump will finish his term either, for a multitude of reasons. I have already said I see this as a battle of the VPs and I much prefer whomever Biden picks (Harris) to whomever the other one does.

Niels · Jul 7, 2024

I doubt dropping Biden for Harris would do much to change the election results. Most people seem ready to vote along party lines anyway, because Trump is so polarizing. With more voting for or against Trump than for or against the Democrat candidate.

eleos1954 · Jul 7, 2024

We will have to wait and see .... regardless whoever the Democratic part puts forth they will be in total lock step with it.

JSRG · Jul 7, 2024

Tropical Wilds said:
I don’t have faith Trump will finish his term either, for a multitude of reasons. I have already said I see this as a battle of the VPs and I much prefer whomever Biden picks (Harris) to whomever the other one does.

Assuming Trump and Biden remain the nominees, I think both vice presidents are going to really matter in this.

A lot of people don't like Trump or Biden. But both also have a much higher chance than normal to leave office midway through (either by dying or being removed from office somehow). So I expect a number of people--or at least a good chunk of swing voters--will think to themselves "I don't like either of these guys. But there's at least a reasonable chance whoever gets elected won't be President for their full term. So I should vote for the person with the better vice president and just hope their vice president takes control."

Trump's choice of vice president could very well be the deciding factor in this election.

Tropical Wilds · Jul 7, 2024

JSRG said:
Assuming Trump and Biden remain the nominees, I think both vice presidents are going to really matter in this.

A lot of people don't like Trump or Biden. But both also have a much higher chance than normal to leave office midway through (either by dying or being removed from office somehow). So I expect a number of people--or at least a good chunk of swing voters--will think to themselves "I don't like either of these guys. But there's at least a reasonable chance whoever gets elected won't be President for their full term. So I should vote for the person with the better vice president and just hope their vice president takes control."

Trump's choice of vice president could very well be the deciding factor in this election.

The number of people who don’t trust Trump but would trust his VP are not as great as you’d think.

mark46 · Jul 7, 2024

Niels said:
I doubt dropping Biden for Harris would do much to change the election results. Most people seem ready to vote along party lines anyway, because Trump is so polarizing. With more voting for or against Trump than for or against the Democrat candidate.

I think that changing to Harris would yield many, many more House seat for the Democrats. The change in youth vote alone would make a big difference in the results.

"Under 30 and voting for Biden" must be a relatively small voting block.

Hans Blaster · Jul 7, 2024

mark46 said:
"Under 30 and voting for Biden" must be a relatively small voting block.

Slightly smaller than "Under 30 and voting".

mark46 · Jul 8, 2024

Hans Blaster said:
Slightly smaller than "Under 30 and voting".

50% of youth voted in 2020, a large increase over 2016.

Half of Youth Voted in 2020, An 11-Point Increase from 2016

We estimate that 50% of young people, ages 18-29, voted in the 2020 presidential election, a remarkable 11-point increase from 2016 (39%) and likely one of the highest rates of youth electoral participation since the voting age was lowered to 18. Our new estimate is based on newly available...

circle.tufts.edu

The youth vote is critical for Democrats. In 2022, they had 68% of the youth vote, compared to 53% of those 30-49.
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IMO, Harris on the top of the ticket would help enormously with this group.

As it is, Harris and others will need to laser focus on certain districts, keeping Biden away, and hope to still win the House.

Francis 1928 · Jul 14, 2024

mark46 said:
The reality is almost certain that Biden will not serve out 4 1/2 more years as president.

Biden may or may not be the candidate most likely to defeat Trump. I don't think so. However, if Biden is elected, Kamala Harris will be president sometime in the next 4 years.
=========
SOME THOUGHTS
The issue is who should lead the US in the next four years, NOT Biden's record over the last 3 1/2 years (which I think has been very good). Democrats would love to have a referendum on Biden's record. The issue is the future.
============
BOTTOM LINE FOR DEMOCRATS
Should Biden run, expecting Harris to be president in a year or so.

Or should Harris run NOW.

IMO, Biden has likely already brought us to a Trump presidency. Harris is likely the only candidate that can unite the party and PERHAPS defeat Trump.

A Harris candidacy would very likely save the House for the Democrats.

I have to disagree respectfully of course.If she were capable (if the leaders of that party thought) than Joe would have dropped out long ago. She spent a great portion of her career putting and keeping minority men ( for the most part) in prison, I highly doubt she is capable or would be thought of as capable to step up to the plate.

mark46 · Jul 14, 2024

Francis 1928 said:
I have to disagree respectfully of course.If she were capable (if the leaders of that party thought) than Joe would have dropped out long ago. She spent a great portion of her career putting and keeping minority men ( for the most part) in prison, I highly doubt she is capable or would be thought of as capable to step up to the plate.

Biden hasn't dropped out for the last year because he insists that only he can defeat Trump. Once Trump decided to run, none of the leaders iof the party have been able to get him to step down. Instead, they agreed to cover up his declining health for over a year.

If Biden had been true to his word, he would have dropped out after the mid-terms. Maybe Harris would have gotten the nomination after the primaries, but probably not. ow, the only choices with a chance to win are Biden and Harris. With Biden, Democrats risk a Trump landslide and losing the House. With Harris at the top of the ticket, the Democrats would almost be assured of control the House.

Francis 1928 · Jul 14, 2024

mark46 said:
Biden hasn't dropped out for the last year because he insists that only he can defeat Trump. Once Trump decided to run, none of the leaders iof the party have been able to get him to step down. Instead, they agreed to cover up his declining health for over a year.

If Biden had been true to his word, he would have dropped out after the mid-terms. Maybe Harris would have gotten the nomination after the primaries, but probably not. ow, the only choices with a chance to win are Biden and Harris. With Biden, Democrats risk a Trump landslide and losing the House. With Harris at the top of the ticket, the Democrats would almost be assured of control the House.

I see what you are saying but Harris doesnt have what it takes to be head of the party. Joe was toying with the idea of dropping out over a yr ago but somehow they convinced him to run. It looked as though his wife was going to convince him to drop out but somehow she changed her mind . Everyone knows that He is being controlled byva small group of people with the possibility of Obama heading up that group.The truth is if Trump wasnt the opponent, Any other candidate would have beat this administration by a landslide . They have ( or atleast before the attempted assassination)a chance to win by a small margin against Trump.

Brihaha · Jul 14, 2024

mark46 said:
Biden hasn't dropped out for the last year because he insists that only he can defeat Trump. Once Trump decided to run, none of the leaders iof the party have been able to get him to step down. Instead, they agreed to cover up his declining health for over a year.

If Biden had been true to his word, he would have dropped out after the mid-terms. Maybe Harris would have gotten the nomination after the primaries, but probably not. ow, the only choices with a chance to win are Biden and Harris. With Biden, Democrats risk a Trump landslide and losing the House. With Harris at the top of the ticket, the Democrats would almost be assured of control the House.

My thoughts are similar to yours. I think Biden feels Harris is capable but he knows voters in America are still racist and sexist. He might be correct in assuming he is the only candidate who can beat Donald Trump. Just because he is an elderly gentleman doesn't mean he ain't right. I keep forgetting myself how Trump was the bitter reward republican voters gave us for electing Obama. I went through his entire presidency, eight years without fully grasping the animosity it inspired in some American voters. After Trump was elected I heard my dad uttering hateful things I never knew Americans could still say. My eyes finally began to see the palpable hatred that had infested our politics in America.

At this point I care little about the house or senate. Neither function properly. I guess my only concern is preventing Donald Trump from accelerating the demise of our once proud nation. It seems imperative we keep him from our levers of power. I'll vote for any candidate they run against Donald Trump. Surely the dem nominee will be more competent than Kennedy. I hope lol.

mark46 · Jul 14, 2024

Francis 1928 said:
.

Brihaha said:
At this point I care little about the house or senate. Neither function properly. I guess my only concern is preventing Donald Trump from accelerating the demise of our once proud nation. It seems imperative we keep him from our levers of power. I'll vote for any candidate they run against Donald Trump. Surely the dem nominee will be more competent than Kennedy. I hope lol.

Yes, the primary focus must be to defeat Trump.

However, if Trump wins, control of the House (and Senate) makes a huge difference. Consider Biden's first 2 years with the second two years. Republican control of the House has virtually stopped any new legislation. Even the tie in the Senate has had effects, especially with regard to slowing down the approval of appointments. The Democrats are very unlikely to win the Senate. House control will stop a lot of legislation. Keeping the Republicans from getting 60% of the Senate will also stop a lot of legislation.

There would be a huge amount of damage (perhaps irreparable damage) from a Trump presidency. However, control of the House and more than 40% of the Senate will stop a lot of Trump legislation. Of course, we HOPE that Trump would leave in 2029, no sure thing at all.

Brihaha · Jul 14, 2024

mark46 said:
Yes, the primary focus must be to defeat Trump.

However, if Trump wins, control of the House (and Senate) makes a huge difference. Consider Biden's first 2 years with the second two years. Republican control of the House has virtually stopped any new legislation. Even the tie in the Senate has had effects, especially with regard to slowing down the approval of appointments. The Democrats are very unlikely to win the Senate. House control will stop a lot of legislation. Keeping the Republicans from getting 60% of the Senate will also stop a lot of legislation.

There would be a huge amount of damage (perhaps irreparable damage) from a Trump presidency. However, control of the House and more than 40% of the Senate will stop a lot of Trump legislation. Of course, we HOPE that Trump would leave in 2029, no sure thing at all.

I'm almost positive you are correct. But I cannot summon the will to contemplate legislative ramifications today. It seems so distant and meaningless to me. I think I have been anticipating this political violence for so long today I feel too heavy to think critically about the repercussions of who is running and who should run. I'm sorry for interrupting you without much substance to offer. I just related to your comments and wanted to commiserate with someone. Peace

dogs4thewin · Jul 14, 2024

Brihaha said:
My thoughts are similar to yours. I think Biden feels Harris is capable but he knows voters in America are still racist and sexist. He might be correct in assuming he is the only candidate who can beat Donald Trump. Just because he is an elderly gentleman doesn't mean he ain't right. I keep forgetting myself how Trump was the bitter reward republican voters gave us for electing Obama. I went through his entire presidency, eight years without fully grasping the animosity it inspired in some American voters. After Trump was elected I heard my dad uttering hateful things I never knew Americans could still say. My eyes finally began to see the palpable hatred that had infested our politics in America.

At this point I care little about the house or senate. Neither function properly. I guess my only concern is preventing Donald Trump from accelerating the demise of our once proud nation. It seems imperative we keep him from our levers of power. I'll vote for any candidate they run against Donald Trump. Surely the dem nominee will be more competent than Kennedy. I hope lol.

I would not vote for Harris if she were a white man I think msost people are over racist and sexist there will also be some aleways has been and always will be until Christ comes back. I could see people more not voting for Harris beecause she is a woman than based on her race, but that has more to do with OTHER nations views of women than our own. Like I said neither of those factors are why I would not vote for Harris ( I did not and will not vote for Biden either.

Always in His Presence · Jul 14, 2024

Tropical Wilds said:
The number of people who don’t trust Trump but would trust his VP are not as great as you’d think.

Who is Trumps VP?

dogs4thewin · Jul 14, 2024

hislegacy said:
Who is Trumps VP?

I read where he could say as soon as tomorrw though that was before yesterday evening.

Arcangl86 · Jul 14, 2024

hislegacy said:
Who is Trumps VP?

We don't know yet. I imagine it'll be announced when he officially accepts the nomination this week.

Ace777 · Jul 15, 2024

mark46 said:
The reality is almost certain that Biden will not serve out 4 1/2 more years as president.

Actually his life expectancy is good and his rate of dementia is slow. Ronald Reagan had Alzheimer's disease which is different from Parkinson but he still lived to be 93. Franklin D. Roosevelt had polio and used a wheel chair, yet he served four terms.

It is Harris vs Trump Whether Biden Runs Or Not

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