Oct 2016 vs Oct 2020 national election comparisons

Tiberius Lee said:

Any way , going back to OP , he is trying to back up his theory that Trump will win from statistics and history, and completely ignoring the current event.

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Tiberius Lee said:

Aha .. make sense now . I saw your reply to my post last night, I was questioning my knowledge , but didn’t feel like looking up last night.

Any way , going back to OP , he is trying to back up his theory that Trump will win from statistics and history, and completely ignoring the current event. At the end, the current event will dictate how people will vote.

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KCfromNC said:

Plus ignoring other statistics that show the opposite.

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Vylo said:

That increasingly becomes the case, which is why most people who are decent at making the predictions weigh the past behaviors and current situation and adjust them as time goes on.

Saying Trump was still favored back in say May could hold a lot of weight. While the current situation was very grim for him, historically candidates in his position won, and a lot could change.

Now we are in the home stretch, less than 3 weeks. Each day that passes Trump's window to change the direction of the election closes, and the current situation dictates what will happen more than historical data.

Basically, if the election were held on any given day since mid April, Trump would have been crushed, and eventually any given day becomes election day if he doesn't change what each day brings.

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Darkhorse said:

No, the Civil War took about 600,000 lives. Look it up.

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Hans Blaster said:

The rest were on the other side, fighting the US.

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