All this talk of 2027. Would not it be more sensible to do it before 2025 in case Trump is elected? That also gives Taiwan time to strengthen its military, and the U.S. to send more, by waiting those 2 - 2 1/2 years.
And there's all kinds of crazy scenarios that could play out. North Korea could strike South Korea simultaneously within minutes of the beginning of a Chinese invasion. Iran could launch a large scale attack on Israel. Russia , well, just keeps doing what she is doing. The U.S. would be strained with 3 or 4 fronts.
Sometimes I wonder if spies from everywhere watch topics like this. They might say, "yeah, that's a good idea." But the Americans also say "yeah, good idea, so we better make contingency plans in case it does go down like that."
Each country is going to have their best people that contemplate all the possible scenarios and the probabilities of each response. They will come up strategies based on the goals and defenses of their nations and also for ways to work together with allies. Of course, not every ally is an equal partner. We should assume China is the leader and the real goal for them is to occupy Taiwan, at least first. If that is the case, what would you do? Here is my amateur assessment.
Stir up the Middle East to cause the USA to commit resources there? Then maybe N.Korea and commits simultaneously with a Chinese invasion? Even better perhaps dupe N.Korea to going to some sort of limited nuclear strike. Blame terrorists, or a rogue general while the Chinese and Russian denounce nuclear escalation so the USA won't nuke back. This way N.Korea can take the heat while China comes in and cleans up on Taiwan. In this case, cyber and space warfare will begin, the sleeper agents will destroy certain domestic USA targets, and all of a sudden the USA response militarily will not be enough cover. Americans seem arrogant that throwing money into high tech stuff will save the day. Anyone notice that Russian jamming is making the guided Ukraine artillery hit only 6% of their targets?
The US gave up sending Ukraine Excalibur guided artillery shells costing $100,000 because they rarely hit their target, report says Those rounds cost 100 times or more more than traditional artillery. I hope the rest of the USA defense is not like that. Just because you spend 10 times more on military does not mean you get value for that expenditure.
How much is waste or ineffective money spent by the USA is a guess. There is solid evidence the USA is vulnerable. In Hurricane Katrina New Orleans was paralyzed for days and it was only one city with no resistance. That the USA could not respond to 9/11 planes is another sign of potential weakness. How can the USA not shoot down a commercial aircraft aiming at the Pentagon? All those billions and that cannot be defended with a moment's notice? It has been suspected for years that the IRS has machine guns to defend the main IRS buildings. I guess you know the priorities of the USA.
IRS has spent $10M on weapons, ammo and combat gear since 2020: watchdog Too bad there is not a more general defense of the USA. A couple of tow missiles to guard and defend main usa buildings is not in the budget? Many airports where anyone can access runways?
Drunk driver crashes onto active runway at New Orleans airport Pipelines that cause gas shortages due to ransomware attacks
Colonial Pipeline ransomware attack - Wikipedia In war it will not be for ransom and the intentions will be to do maximum harm. An economic impact felt from a single bridge collapse? Imagine what the top twenty bridges might do, or something like the Hoover dam? If the electric grid goes even 25% there will be domestic chaos.
Sorry I have to rant what i believe is true. The USA is absurd for worrying about what constitutes gender or giving inefficient subsidies in the name of clean energy while true war preparedness is lacking. The same is said for Universities that fund all kinds of twisted courses but make very progress on good campus security. Job one is SAFETY but this focus is clearly lacking all across the USA. Mentally too the USA is unprepared. It will be a tough transition for some to actually put on a uniform and defend their own freedoms if there is a draft.
The worst alternative for everyone would be an all out nuclear strike first. How fast could Biden respond, This book says he has about 6 minutes.
What to Expect if Nuclear War Breaks Out
Back to strategy now. It is is interesting that China's dispute with the Philippines is escalating. Is it being used as a distraction? The bigger goal is Taiwan. Why are they poking at the Philippines which is hardening its defenses and allowing more USA forces access to Philippine bases? Maybe they will test usa resolve over some islands that few care about? That would be interesting but doing this would seemingly delay the Taiwan goal. Or perhaps we should suppose that China is really looking at a broader conflict that includes all the potential Taiwan Allies?
The 2027 dateline to retake Taiwan is pure disinformation. If anyone takes that seriously, it would only be provide a false sense of security. I imagine that one day those Chinese test exercises near Taiwan are going to turn out not to be a test. Everyone can see mass movement of ships and troops through satellites so I do not know how far you can take a "test" and not be taken too seriously?
Will china act? I read their demographics are getting worse. Too many aging are going to present economic challenges for years to come. Their property markets are in shambles and business is rightly moving out. Longer-term, India could overtake China.
India's economy can overtake China's if it can stay on track
So trying to take Taiwan seems likely before Biden leaves. The world stock markets sure will be surprised. Many still even talk about investment into China like nothing is wrong. The only reason China might wait for action is that the USA might implode from within. Thus, there could be better future opportunities if they would wait. However, Iran seems too itchy. Could be the only reason they are waiting now is because China has told them to be patient. N.Korea is just a nuclear weapon pawn that will do whatever they are supposed to. Russia is already engaged but seems unlikely to take on nato alone.
For Russia it is a full-on war now. For Nato it is a proxy war, but no full war because Russia is not totally embargoed. Oil is being traded with few consequences etc. Weapons not allowed to strike targets inside Russia? Russians can still travel most places, very few international restrictions, not even all funds have been seized. Threatening other border nations to Russia would be stupid unless the Chinese and Russians really want a broader war. If they both do, then nukes may have to be in the mix.
I sure hope my thoughts are completely wrong. Spiritually I assume we are nearing apocalyptic times. Please pray and prepare as you are led.
"If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle." - Sun Tzu
www.nbcnews.com
