Demographic future of US Christianity?

[grasping the after wind]

I wonder if this decline will hit bottom with a Christianity that is less political and less upsetting to non-Christians? The survey linked earlier noted generational differences in Christian identification with only 50% of the Millennials identifying as Christian. Who knows what the children of the Millennials will be like, but it seems the overall population will soon decline from 65% to 50% or lower. Only a fraction of that 50% will be strongly Christian. There are many minority religions in America that mind their own business politically and socially.

What religions are those?

 

[Akita Suggagaki]

The trouble is that those forces which harmed Douthat's ideal of Christianity are still at work today.

My expectation is that eventually Douthat's ideal of Christianity will be completely extinct and the new Christianity will be whatever remains. Will the televangelist-style Christianity be the survivor or will something else be the survivor?

I haven't finished the book yet but something will endure. We seem to go in cycles. Whatever speaks most the each age, I guess.

 

[Zoness]

I wonder if Western Europe can offer any clues? As I understand it, Christianity in Western Europe began a demographic decline in the 1960s. It seems odd that Christianity in America did not decline along with Western Europe.

Tbf, America didn't have two of the most violent conflicts ever seen in human history happen on its home territory. The philosophical winds of Europe underwent a tremendous change in the post-war era. Long held assumptions about humanity, religious and secular were questioned in a radical way. I think its possible we could see a Quebec style Quiet Revolution but I don't hold out that much hope. The places you've seen the most transformation in that space fall along political lines and doesn't run nearly as deep as you'd think. Even in the most "secular" parts of America, its culturally considered pretty rude to be against Christianity even if you don't adhere to it. We have a deep axiom of "let people believe what they want, they're not hurting anyone".

However in Europe, religious identity plays a giant role. Notice how large quantities of people still identify as Christian without actually doing any Christian actions. I tend to couple this very tightly with European Nationalist tendencies where there style of conservatism is more of a "god, king and country" wherein a region very much identified with a specific religious sect during its romantic nationalist years: it could be Italian Catholics, Dutch Calvinists, Swedish Lutherans or Bulgarian Orthodox etc. but European identities are very tangled in the specific religious undercurrents that have affected them over the centuries.

America's method of adherence varies wildly: not only were a giant many sects invented in America, Americans tend to be very experimental with religion as these different groups had a high degree of blending and re-synthesizing. Your religion is not so tied to national origin here but with our great emphasis on individualism, you're kind of expected to draw your own conclusions in the so called "marketplace of ideas".*

*This only applies to Christians of course, if you come to a conclusion of a religion outside of Christianity you will of course not have made many friends lol.

 

[Zoness]

My opinion on the decline is this: Christianity's raw numbers might be headed downwards in the US but its influence surely isn't. The most intense forms of Christianity will probably be the ones that'll dominate the rest of the century: Baptists, Pentecostals, fiery megachurch type places. They'll also be profoundly conservative and they'll slowly become more and more radical. Here's already very little trust of science and experts in the wings of these kinds of places, expect that sort of isolation to continue. They're very tightly coupled to the Republican party; they also have elaborate networks of media and school with which to send families through to retain the specific lifestyle. A tremendous amount infrastructure of which is basically tax-free. Unless you're another religion, you're not at all competing on an even field.

The only area I see deeply changing is the racial makeup of these groups: they're overwhelmingly white today but are slowly becoming more diverse, especially among Hispanic populations. Pentecostals in particular have been large demographic in-roads among that group.

 

[MehGuy]

I noticed this survey from 2018/2019 ( In U.S., Decline of Christianity Continues at Rapid Pace ) that claims to show the decline in the numbers of US Christians has not slowed. If I understand the results correctly, the Christian share of the population has been steadily dropping about 1% each year for 20 years?

So I wonder when this decline is going to stop and what Christianity in the US will look like when that happens?

I wonder if Western Europe can offer any clues? As I understand it, Christianity in Western Europe began a demographic decline in the 1960s. It seems odd that Christianity in America did not decline along with Western Europe.

Just wondering what others think. I wonder if there is any chance of reversing the decline.

I think Christianity is slowly going to dwindle. Immigration might spike up the numbers but ultimately it will continue to dwindle. Christianity will probably become more liberal and less dogmatic, but I take that as a sign of weakness and a symptom of further decay. As far as America and Europe goes, I think the differences rely on geographical realities. Middle America seems to be the most religious. I pin that down on a smaller population and thus less mingling with diverse viewpoints. The difference now is that social media is connecting the world together like never before. So the more liberal city mentality is starting to spring up in otherwise historically less sparsely populated conservative areas.

 

[cloudyday2]

My opinion on the decline is this: Christianity's raw numbers might be headed downwards in the US but its influence surely isn't. The most intense forms of Christianity will probably be the ones that'll dominate the rest of the century: Baptists, Pentecostals, fiery megachurch type places. They'll also be profoundly conservative and they'll slowly become more and more radical. Here's already very little trust of science and experts in the wings of these kinds of places, expect that sort of isolation to continue. They're very tightly coupled to the Republican party; they also have elaborate networks of media and school with which to send families through to retain the specific lifestyle. A tremendous amount infrastructure of which is basically tax-free. Unless you're another religion, you're not at all competing on an even field.

The only area I see deeply changing is the racial makeup of these groups: they're overwhelmingly white today but are slowly becoming more diverse, especially among Hispanic populations. Pentecostals in particular have been large demographic in-roads among that group.

I sometimes watch Christian cable TV networks such as Trinity and Daystar. Most of the televangelists seem to be preaching about claiming/receiving blessings from God through Bible verses. The blessings might be feelings of peace or answered prayers for loved ones etc. Essentially it is a form of the "prosperity gospel" except that prosperity does not necessarily mean wealth but can include happiness, good health, joy, etc. The sermons say almost nothing about the believer's duties to God except insofar as they might be a necessary ingredient to receive some blessing. It's a very inclusive message, because almost everybody would like to receive blessings from God. However it is a message that makes claims that can be somewhat falsified. If the blessings don't materialize within a reasonable amount of time and effort then the believer begins to doubt God.

 

[Akita Suggagaki]

We do realize we are talking about The Body of Christ. This is his enterprise and things will go as planned. Maybe not as we think it should. But we know very little.

 

[Andrewn]

I sometimes watch Christian cable TV networks such as Trinity and Daystar. Most of the televangelists seem to be preaching about claiming/receiving blessings from God through Bible verses. The blessings might be feelings of peace or answered prayers for loved ones etc. Essentially it is a form of the "prosperity gospel" except that prosperity does not necessarily mean wealth but can include happiness, good health, joy, etc. The sermons say almost nothing about the believer's duties to God except insofar as they might be a necessary ingredient to receive some blessing. It's a very inclusive message, because almost everybody would like to receive blessings from God. However it is a message that makes claims that can be somewhat falsified. If the blessings don't materialize within a reasonable amount of time and effort then the believer begins to doubt God.

Wow, this is a very accurate critique and I wish Christians who watch these programs could have your deep understanding.

But we still have Christians who attend normal-size churches, who truly love God, and love people all around the world. They pray, engage in works of charity, and contribute to social justice around the world.

Will these 2 types of Christianity survive side-by-side?

The 3rd type of Christianity that is definitely going out of the door is the denominational emphasis on theological boundaries.

Perhaps there is also a 4th kind, which is the social club type of churches. Some of these are due to immigration. Others may be due to shared social views.

 

[Akita Suggagaki]

The 3rd type of Christianity that is definitely going out of the door is the denominational emphasis on theological boundaries.

I think this is true. Denominational identity is one of the things that diminished since the 60's. Bigger issues like civil rights brought them arm in arm. There were two responses: accommodate and double down.

But you know, it reminds me of the Jews during Roman occupation. two different reactions.

I think also something else is going on and I hope it is maturation. That is, we grow and learn and gain wisdom and realize a need for reform, rethinking and ongoing conversion. That reassessment of what is essential and what is cultural accretion that can and needs to change is part of any living thing.

 

[awitch]

I think also something else is going on and I hope it is maturation. That is, we grow and learn and gain wisdom and realize a need for reform, rethinking and ongoing conversion. That reassessment of what is essential and what is cultural accretion that can and needs to change is part of any living thing.

Have you ever seen those, "The Bible says it, I believe it, that settles it" bumper stickers?

 

[Akita Suggagaki]

It brings us to thew question of what are the essentials of Christian faith?

1. The deity and humanity of Jesus
2. Man is sinful and in need of salvation
3. Salvation is by God’s grace
4. Salvation is through Jesus Christ alone
5. The Death and Resurrection of Jesus Christ
6. God is one and exists in 3 Persons; The Father, The Son and the Holy Spirit
7. The Authority of the Scriptures

Am I missing much? Even within these there is plenty of room for interpretation.
So a future Christianity must at least affirm these common basics. But how we live them out, how we worship, how we prioritize our daily lives, that will define who we are.

 

[Akita Suggagaki]

Have you ever seen those, "The Bible says it, I believe it, that settles it" bumper stickers?

For some it is that simple. But it requires a little head in the sand, I think.

 

[dzheremi]

I would imagine that it's probably going to become more and more an immigrant phenomenon. When I was Roman Catholic (already over a decade ago), I remember reading how priests were being imported into the USA from places like Nigeria in order to not just tend to the flocks here, but also to evangelize, as the USA was considered "missionary territory". And since I've been Orthodox, I've lived among immigrants (primarily from Egypt, but also from Sudan, Ethiopia, Iraq, etc.), and can attest to the liveliness of their faith, and that they have a kind of excitement at even just being allowed to talk to others about Jesus in public. In Egypt, doing that can risk jail time or worse.

This sort of thing, combined with a demographic shift in the center of global Christianity that has long been observed to be in process by which Africa, Asia, and South America are replacing Europe and North America as the global centers of Christianity (see, e.g., the works of Dr. Lamin Saneh and others who have been making this point for several decades by now) virtually guarantees that the stereotype of Christianity as 'the white man's religion' (which has been effective at drawing several generations of non-white people into religions like Islam) will make less and less sense as time goes on. Last I read, China was set to be home to the world's single largest Christian population by 2050, which is about the same time that Islam is projected to overtake Christianity as the world's largest religion. Funny, that.

 

[Akita Suggagaki]

Aha! I got to a good part.

In the 60's and 70's mainline churches accommodated to the changing times and in the process lost the transcendent for many people. It all became too secular.

Which is to say, I think, most people do not have the spiritual maturity to recognize the transcendent, the sacred, the numinous without rigid structures, definitions, symbols and dogmas. If any of that changes it is like taking God away.

For Catholics the Tridentine Mass is an apt example. For some it is harder to encounter God without the Ecclesial Latin, inscence, and formality.

 

[Albion]

Some quick thoughts.

If the percentage of Christians in the population is declining by 1% a year as I read here, then the immigration of Muslims, Hindus, Sikhs, and other non-Christian religions accounts for it.

And if this is true: "I wonder if this decline will hit bottom with a Christianity that is less political and less upsetting to non-Christians?"
it would take LIBERAL Christian denominations to decline faster than others, since they are the most political. This decline, however, is what's happening, but whether that will make non-Christians less upset I would doubt.

 

[dlamberth]

it would take LIBERAL Christian denominations to decline faster than others, since they are the most political. This decline, however, is what's happening, but whether that will make non-Christians less upset I would doubt.

From my position as an outsider, what I've seen is that it's the Fundamentalist Christian sect's that are most political. From the Liberal side what I've seen politically are social justice issues and human rights sort of things. But the voice I've heard loudest comes from the Fundamentalist trajectories.

Is it across the board that Christianity is declining? Or are there certain areas being hit more so than others?

 

[Andrewn]

Is it across the board that Christianity is declining? Or are there certain areas being hit more so than others?

The following study doesn't include Catholics:

American Religion Statistics: Trends in U.S. Religious Affiliations

In a related study, the ration of Christians who say religion is very important was as follows:

Evangelicals: 79%

Historically black 85%

Mainline: 53%

Catholics: 58%

Religion in America: U.S. Religious Data, Demographics and Statistics

 

[grasping the after wind]

From my position as an outsider, what I've seen is that it's the Fundamentalist Christian sect's that are most political. From the Liberal side what I've seen politically are social justice issues and human rights sort of things. But the voice I've heard loudest comes from the Fundamentalist trajectories.

Is it across the board that Christianity is declining? Or are there certain areas being hit more so than others?

Are you proposing that being politically involved in social justice issues is not political?
I know a number of people that have left denominations because the denominational leadership has become focused upon political advocacy on social justice issues .

From my perspective as a member of a congregation within a liberal and somewhat authoritarian denominational structure, fundamentalists seem to be asserting they have the right to believe their traditional religious beliefs and the more liberal denominations seem to be asserting their right to change those traditional beliefs to conform with modern social mores. Both seem to want to advocate for their beliefs through political activism. IMO neither is on the right track doing so. I don't think replacing our purpose as Christians (love God with everything one has and love our neighbor as we love ourselves ) with a secular purpose (asserting our rights first and looking to government not God as the answer) will bear good fruit. Committed Christians willing to forsake their own comfort to love others do not come about by being enforced from the top down by government mandate. Look at how European Christianity which was established in large part in a top down manner has fared. Christians are supposed to be in the world but not of the world. From what I can see, most denominational leadership sees not a bit of difference between the words "in and "of".

 

[Akita Suggagaki]

then the immigration of Muslims, Hindus, Sikhs, and other non-Christian religions accounts for it.

I think it is coincidental not a cause.

 

[awitch]

From my perspective as a member of a congregation within a liberal and somewhat authoritarian denominational structure, fundamentalists seem to be asserting they have the right to believe their traditional religious beliefs and the more liberal denominations seem to be asserting their right to change those traditional beliefs to conform with modern social mores.

I don't feel that's accurate.
I would say fundamentalists are asserting that everyone must abide by their traditional religious beliefs, and/or that their traditional religious beliefs should excuse them from rules that fairly apply to everyone else, and/or they should not have to deal with any consequences for acting on those traditional religious beliefs. It is most definitely not just about being able to have those beliefs.

And I would say the liberal wing is asserting that you cannot outlaw changing social norms based purely on religious beliefs.