Beto Disqualifies Himself

[mark46]

I understand the arithmetic, and it is accurate.

And do I believe that many of the candidates are so poor that Trump might repeat again in PA, MI and WI? Sure I do. Trump could take NH and 1/2 of ME. I don't expect one of the left wing candidates to beat Trump in FL or OH.

Among other things, Trump will campaign against the Green Manifesto, paying for Medicare for all, and against elitism. Harris (and Sanders) have suggested that we end private insurance. I think that this will be a terrible position for a candidate.
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You always have to remember that the only approval ratings that may matter are those in each state. Hillary only won 16 states, and DC. But she got 238 EVs. Do you really think Donald Trump can win any New England state? Or CA, WA, or OR? Or CO, or IL? I don't see any likelihood he can flip even one of Hillary's states. So if a Democrat can hold those blue states, s(he) only needs 32 more EVs to win. MI, WI, PA are traditionally blue states that Trump won in 2016, and are ripe for the picking. If a Democrat can win Florida (which Pres. Obama carried twice) that's 29 EVs right there. In the current political climate, Donald Trump has a major uphill climb to reach the 270 magic number.

 

[Hank77]

I was surprised at this claim. How would you know that's the main democratic viewpoint -- that the mere location of wall building is what is moral or immoral!?

It came across to me that the 'immoral' was in reference to Trump's intentional policies against refugees, such as lowering the cap of the number to be admitted to the lowest ever.

Nancy Pelosi made that statement, so now of coarse it becomes part of the Democratic platform?

 

[mark46]

How does this disqualify Beto?

Campaigning to "tear down the wall' will virtually guarantee a Republican victory in the general election.
That is my opinion. Others think that "open borders" for all is a winning political idea. Others think that accepting a million asylum seeker into the US is a fine political idea. Personally, I don't think so.

 

[mark46]

Nancy Pelosi made that statement, so now of coarse it becomes part of the Democratic platform?

We'll see when the platform is passed, but that designation would have passed the House easily.

 

[Hank77]

We'll see when the platform is passed, but that designation would have passed the House easily.

? What designation would have passed the House, that it is immoral?

 

[mark46]

Trump campaigned on a concrete wall for the whole length of the border.

His current position is that he wants to build 200 miles or so of fence. The Democrats view is that 50 miles is enough. Trump is using some drug interdiction money for much of the difference. The Democrats are going to court to fight the last $3.6M (of the $8B). I guess if they succeed, he will only have $4.4B of fencing.

With regard to non-wall border security spending, the Democrats used to say that there was no crisis at the border, no need for troops or much in a additional funds. Democrats agreed to give trump more then he asked for, and more than he can possibly use (as he said). How is this a winning issue for the Democrats?

How is this a victory for the Democrats, and a winning issue for the campaign.

 

[Halbhh]

Before and during the shutdown when Trump insisted on $5.7B for the border wall, several Democrats, including the speaker, indicated that a border wall was "immoral". See below for a sample.

'Immoral': Nancy Pelosi on Trump's border wall – video

Good video.

Ok, it's an information thing maybe. About understanding how its immoral -- "a wall between reality and his constituents" as she said.

Like Nogales Arizona (I once lived about a quarter mile from the border in El Paso, though long ago, I remember it well) --

See, to me I can immediately sense this as immoral right off, but I'm aware of it, by paying attention in ways that let me see it, which would not be indirection from Trump tweets, but more about real things. So that's informational.

 

[USincognito]

Idk. Trump's plan to build the wall as well as his Muslim ban should have disqualified him from receiving the nomination. I don't really see why a promise to undo Trump's stupid vanity wall is a losing proposition. It seems to be in the best interest of this country to not give-in to Trump's ego.

Trump also promised to undo the ACA.

 

[Halbhh]

What's becomes immoral about the aim of the keep-them-illegal-and-out wall (which isn't the same as an immigration border screening wall, the difference being the fundamental aim of the 2 versions of the wall, one being keep-them-out-except a token few, while in contrast the traditional wall would be: let people immigrate in accord with typical American screening; again:
The new kind of wall is keep-them-most-all-out by restriction
vs.
The traditional kind of wall, which instead is generously admit, but with screening for such as drugs/gangs/weapons/warrants/known criminals/etc.)

Here's a key part:

Where is your brother?” This is the question that God asks each one of us in our hearts regarding our brother who is sick, in prison or hungry. Pope Francis made this the reflection of his homily at Mass, Monday morning, in the chapel of the Casa Santa Marta in the Vatican.

Commenting on the episode of Cain and Abel in the first reading from the Book of Genesis, the Pope explained that mankind, like Cain, often attempts to reply to God’s uncomfortable and embarrassing questions with regard to our neighbours. “What have I got to do with my brother's life? Am I his keeper? I wash my hands of him….” The Pope explained that Cain, who killed his brother, tries to escape the gaze of God.

Uncomfortable questions
The Pope went on to explain how Jesus also asked such uncomfortable questions. He asked Peter three times whether he loved Him. He asked his disciples what people said about Him and what they themselves thought about Him.

Pope Francis said today the Lord asks each one of us some personal questions such as these:

"Where is your brother who is hungry?" the Lord asks us. And to save our skin, we answer, “Surely he is at lunch with the parish Caritas group that is feeding him.”

“What about the other, the sick…?" “Oh well, he is in the hospital!" "But there's no place in the hospital! And did you give him any medicine? " "But, that’s his business, I cannot meddle in the life of others ... and besides, he will have relatives who give him medicine ". And so I wash my hands of him.

"Where is your brother, the prisoner?" "Ah, he deserves and is paying for it.” We are tired of seeing so many criminals on the street.

Perhaps, the Pope said, you never hear such answers from the Lord. “Where is your brother, your exploited brother, the one who works illegally, nine months a year… with no security, no holiday ...?"
Pope at Mass: “Where is your brother?” - Vatican News


What if the answer to the last is for too many would be: "Well, what does he expect -- he is illegal."

Not a good moment....

 

[Hank77]

Good video.

Ok, it's an information thing maybe. About understanding how its immoral -- "a wall between reality and his constituents" as she said.

Like Nogales Arizona (I once lived about a quarter mile from the border in El Paso, though long ago, I remember it well) --

See, to me I can immediately sense this as immoral right off, but I'm aware of it, by paying attention in ways that let me see it, which would not be indirection from Trump tweets, but more about real things. So that's informational.

He said it in the video, they don't ask the people who live there what they need. Why waste money on what they don't need. Washington needs to listen to those who have lived there for a long time, who are raising their families, and running businesses.
It's so typical of Washington to throw money at something without doing thorough research.

 

[Hank77]

Trump also promised to undo the ACA.

And replace it with something better and everyone would have good coverage.

 

[USincognito]

And replace it with something better and everyone would have good coverage.

Personally I'm tired of winning.

 

[jayem]

I understand the arithmetic, and it is accurate.

And do I believe that many of the candidates are so poor that Trump might repeat again in PA, MI and WI? Sure I do. Trump could take NH and 1/2 of ME. I don't expect one of the left wing candidates to beat Trump in FL or OH.

Among other things, Trump will campaign against the Green Manifesto, paying for Medicare for all, and against elitism. Harris (and Sanders) have suggested that we end private insurance. I think that this will be a terrible position for a candidate.
=========

My in-laws live in WI, and I was just up there for the holidays. They're generally rather non-political folks. But they were all talking about how much and anger and resentment there is towards all Republicans. Especially as a result of the legislature's attempt to weaken the newly elected Democratic governor's authority. The Business Insider web site had a state by state map of how much Donald Trump's approval had changed since his inauguration. A net ngative number means respondents in that state now disapprove of his performance. His shutdown started in late Dec., so these ratings obviously reflect that. Still, it's not plausible in the least that he's reversed this in the last 3 weeks. If these numbers are even halfway accurate, Donald Trump is in pretty deep political trouble.

Map shows how much Trump's approval ratings have changed in each state since he took office

 

[mark46]

I agree that Trump is currently in deep political trouble, and would lose an election held now or in the near future.

My in-laws live in WI, and I was just up there for the holidays. They're generally rather non-political folks. But they were all talking about how much and anger and resentment there is towards all Republicans. Especially as a result of the legislature's attempt to weaken the newly elected Democratic governor's authority. The Business Insider web site had a state by state map of how much Donald Trump's approval had changed since his inauguration. A net ngative number means respondents in that state now disapprove of his performance. His shutdown started in late Dec., so these ratings obviously reflect that. Still, it's not plausible in the least that he's reversed this in the last 3 weeks. If these numbers are even halfway accurate, Donald Trump is in pretty deep political trouble.


View attachment 251585

Map shows how much Trump's approval ratings have changed in each state since he took office

 

[Speedwell]

I understand the arithmetic, and it is accurate.

And do I believe that many of the candidates are so poor that Trump might repeat again in PA, MI and WI? Sure I do. Trump could take NH and 1/2 of ME. I don't expect one of the left wing candidates to beat Trump in FL or OH.

Among other things, Trump will campaign against the Green Manifesto, paying for Medicare for all, and against elitism. Harris (and Sanders) have suggested that we end private insurance. I think that this will be a terrible position for a candidate.
=========

Do you have the sources? What I am seeing is that there considerable exaggeration coming from the Right about the Green Manifesto and other Left positions--That it outlaws airplanes, outlaws cows, etc. I want to see the quote for myself to be sure that they didn't just mean that Medicare for all would make health insurance unnecessary. Let me see a clear statement from either of them that they mean to eliminate supplemental insurance as well.

 

[SoldierOfTheKing]

O'Rourke, in arguing against walls, admitted that walls work. Two cheers for O'Rourke.

 

[mark46]

Sanders had a plan last time. His said that it would work economically because there would be no more price insurance.

This time it is Harris (so far). There will be many plans. There is not way to predict the plan that will be in the platform

Kamala Harris on Private Health Insurance Market: "Eliminate All Of That," "Let's Move On"

Do you have the sources? What I am seeing is that there considerable exaggeration coming from the Right about the Green Manifesto and other Left positions--That it outlaws airplanes, outlaws cows, etc. I want to see the quote for myself to be sure that they didn't just mean that Medicare for all would make health insurance unnecessary. Let me see a clear statement from either of them that they mean to eliminate supplemental insurance as well.

 

[mark46]

2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map

I think that we need to remember that many who voted for Trump had an unfavorable view of him, even on Election Day. And there will be about 17 months of Democrats beating each other up. Whoever gets the nomination will have negatives.

Personally, I think that Biden-Klobuschar would have no trouble at all getting a solid win. But that is because Biden will camp out in PA, MI and WI. Klobuschar will likely secure her own state and perhaps an adjacent state or two.

On the other hand, I could see lots of the other candidates, almost all from the coasts would have a good chance of losing PA and MI. Rural PA is very, very conservative. A progressive agenda would not be a major plus.

My in-laws live in WI, and I was just up there for the holidays. They're generally rather non-political folks. But they were all talking about how much and anger and resentment there is towards all Republicans. Especially as a result of the legislature's attempt to weaken the newly elected Democratic governor's authority. The Business Insider web site had a state by state map of how much Donald Trump's approval had changed since his inauguration. A net ngative number means respondents in that state now disapprove of his performance. His shutdown started in late Dec., so these ratings obviously reflect that. Still, it's not plausible in the least that he's reversed this in the last 3 weeks. If these numbers are even halfway accurate, Donald Trump is in pretty deep political trouble.


View attachment 251585

Map shows how much Trump's approval ratings have changed in each state since he took office

 

[wing2000]

I understand the arithmetic, and it is accurate.

And do I believe that many of the candidates are so poor that Trump might repeat again in PA, MI and WI? Sure I do. Trump could take NH and 1/2 of ME. I don't expect one of the left wing candidates to beat Trump in FL or OH.

Among other things, Trump will campaign against the Green Manifesto, paying for Medicare for all, and against elitism. Harris (and Sanders) have suggested that we end private insurance. I think that this will be a terrible position for a candidate.
=========

...it's a bit early to be assessing the general election message of the Democrats. Remember this: Trump's Senate candidate lost in Arizona... If Trump's strategy is to run on border poltiics-- he will loose.

 

[jayem]

I don't live in TX, and I didn't follow Beto's campaign. Was he opposed to a wall when he ran for Senate?