If real life were the Lord of the Rings, then this secret mathematical law would be the one ring to rule them all. It explains so much about how society works, and how it breaks. It even points to a solution to many of our problems - the Shemitah and Jubilee years.
Why didn't you wake up today in China, speaking Chinese and working as an air traffic controller in Beijing? Stupid question? No, it merely shows that your future is heavily dependent on your past. You're not going to wake up in China unless you normally live there. Your past influences your today, and your today influences your future. Each future day is mostly not random. I said "mostly," because there is some randomness. You move into the future with a feedback loop process that is heavily influenced by your past. Societies work the same way.
The secret mathematical law that rules this kind of feedback process is called the power law. Another name for that is the Pareto distribution. It's only a secret because few know about it. Math nerds know about it but they aren't talking, mostly. The power law gives rise to the 80-20 rule. The power law explains why wealth accumulates in the few. It explains the size of cities, stock market crashes, wars, forest fires, avalanches, earthquakes and more.
You know about the bell curve, aka normal distribution (Gaussian distribution). That curve emerges when things are fully random. But what happens when things aren't fully random? That's where the power law often applies.
[14-Jan-2022] We Need to Let Go of the Bell Curve | Harvard Business Review
"Once you start looking, you’ll see that pattern almost everywhere, almost all the time. The frequency of words we use when we speak, the magnitude of earthquakes and hurricanes, the size of companies and cities, book sales, and the pattern of countries winning Olympic medals all follow power laws. ..."
[11-Nov-2011] The mathematical law that shows why wealth flows to the 1% | Alok Jha | The Guardian
"The economist Edward N Wolff, of New York University, has pointed out that, as of 2007, the top 1% of households in America owned 34.6% of all privately held wealth, and the next 19% had 50.5% of the wealth. This means that just 20% of the people owned 85% of the wealth, leaving only 15% for the bottom 80% of the people. No one who is interested in an equitable society can fail to be irked by this unfairness."
"But the unfairness is, unfortunately, not unexpected. What the protesters are fighting (consciously or unconsciously) is the 80/20 rule ... ."
"The maths underlying the 80/20 rule, known as the power law distribution, is found in many natural systems over which no single human has much influence."
The key here is to understand that societies and forests both move into the future in a similar way with feedback loops processes and the power law often applies. Forest fires and wars follow a power law distribution, for example. This means in a general way we can model societies just like forests.
What happens to a forest when you put out all the fires, i.e. enforce stability?
It seems to work for a very long time then the entire forest burns down to the ground in an unstoppable fire.
How do you fix this kind of problem?
Stop putting out fires, or use controlled burns.
If societies work a lot like forests, then enforced stability is a bad thing and will lead to big problems.
[4-Jan-2021] The Minsky Moment: Why Stability Leads To Panic And What To Do About It
"Hyman Minsky was an economist at Washington University in St. Louis from 1965 to 1990. He proposed a theory he labeled the financial instability hypothesis, which holds that the economy creates its own bubbles and crashes. The gist of his theory is that stable economies sow the seeds of their own destruction because stability, seeming safe, encourages people to take risks. That risk-taking creates financial instability that eventually results in panic and crisis."
Shemitah and Jubilee Years
The Shemitah and Jubilee years are the equivalent of controlled burns for societies. On the flip side, failure to implement the Shemitah and Jubilee years means a society will eventually run into all kinds of problems before it hits a depression and/or big war. Notice how the West, Japan, Russia and China are all kind of in the same boat with an accumulation of problems?
The secret to a stable economy is automatic debt release at timed intervals. This helps to shut down the conditions for large crashes. The Shemitah and Jubilee years serve this function. The Shemitah coming every seven years and the Jubilee coming in the year following seven Shemitahs, 49 + 1 = 50 years.
What are the Shemitah and Jubilee years?
The Shemitah year is a year where the land rests and debt is released at the end of the year. Notice what happens if the Israelis fail at this:
" I will scatter you among the nations, and keep the sword drawn against you. Your land will remain desolate, and your cities in ruins. Then, as long as the land is desolate and you are in your enemies' land, the land will enjoy its sabbaths. The land will rest and enjoy its sabbatical years. Thus, as long as it is desolate, [the land] will enjoy the sabbatical rest that you would not give it when you lived there." (Leviticus 26:33-35)
Pretty harsh penalty for failing to follow the Shemitahs. That's because they are important. However, their importance is not obvious.
When are the Shemitah years? Here are a few:
- 5775 (25 Sept 2014 - 13 Sept 2015)
- 5782 (7 Sept 2021 - 25 Sept 2022)
- 5789 (21 Sept 2028 - 9 Sept 2029)
calendar - When is the next shmita year (as of 5772)? - Mi Yodeya
The year 5782 on the Jewish calendar (Sept. 7, 2021–Sept. 26, 2022) will be the next Sabbatical year."
Source: https://www.chabad.org/library/article_cdo/aid/538797/jewish/When-is-the-next-Sabbatical-year.htm
The Jubilee year always follows 7 Shemitahs. No plucking it out and plopping it down somewhere else.
Here is a long explanation of the Year of Jubilee in the Bible:
Leviticus 25:8-55 ESV - The Year of Jubilee - Bible Gateway
When is the next Jubilee year?
Year 5776 is the first year of the counting of the 50. Source:
Year 5776 began on September 13, 2015.
Last Shemitah year before the Jubilee count begins = 5776 - 1 = 5775
In order to project Jubilee years, one must start at the last Shemitah year.
1 Jubilee = 5775 + 1x49 + 1 = 5825
2 Jubilees = 5775 + 2x49 + 1 = 5874
3 Jubilees = 5775 + 3x49 + 1 = 5923
4 Jubilees = 5775 + 4x49 + 1 = 5972
What would happen if you put out all fires in a forest for 1,000 years?
You should see a regular pattern where the forest gets wiped out at a set interval, maybe every 90 to 110 years.
In America, we see the same pattern. America hits a major crisis about 60 to 80 years after the last big crisis. A major crisis always includes a big war. We are now over 75 years since the last big crisis of World War 2.
The cycles of crisis in America are laid out in a book called the Fourth Turning which is based on demographics.
Neil Howe On The Fourth Turning: How Bad Will It Get, How Long Will It Last & What Comes Next? (PT1) - YouTube
Why didn't you wake up today in China, speaking Chinese and working as an air traffic controller in Beijing? Stupid question? No, it merely shows that your future is heavily dependent on your past. You're not going to wake up in China unless you normally live there. Your past influences your today, and your today influences your future. Each future day is mostly not random. I said "mostly," because there is some randomness. You move into the future with a feedback loop process that is heavily influenced by your past. Societies work the same way.
The secret mathematical law that rules this kind of feedback process is called the power law. Another name for that is the Pareto distribution. It's only a secret because few know about it. Math nerds know about it but they aren't talking, mostly. The power law gives rise to the 80-20 rule. The power law explains why wealth accumulates in the few. It explains the size of cities, stock market crashes, wars, forest fires, avalanches, earthquakes and more.
You know about the bell curve, aka normal distribution (Gaussian distribution). That curve emerges when things are fully random. But what happens when things aren't fully random? That's where the power law often applies.
[14-Jan-2022] We Need to Let Go of the Bell Curve | Harvard Business Review
"Once you start looking, you’ll see that pattern almost everywhere, almost all the time. The frequency of words we use when we speak, the magnitude of earthquakes and hurricanes, the size of companies and cities, book sales, and the pattern of countries winning Olympic medals all follow power laws. ..."
[11-Nov-2011] The mathematical law that shows why wealth flows to the 1% | Alok Jha | The Guardian
"The economist Edward N Wolff, of New York University, has pointed out that, as of 2007, the top 1% of households in America owned 34.6% of all privately held wealth, and the next 19% had 50.5% of the wealth. This means that just 20% of the people owned 85% of the wealth, leaving only 15% for the bottom 80% of the people. No one who is interested in an equitable society can fail to be irked by this unfairness."
"But the unfairness is, unfortunately, not unexpected. What the protesters are fighting (consciously or unconsciously) is the 80/20 rule ... ."
"The maths underlying the 80/20 rule, known as the power law distribution, is found in many natural systems over which no single human has much influence."
The key here is to understand that societies and forests both move into the future in a similar way with feedback loops processes and the power law often applies. Forest fires and wars follow a power law distribution, for example. This means in a general way we can model societies just like forests.
What happens to a forest when you put out all the fires, i.e. enforce stability?
It seems to work for a very long time then the entire forest burns down to the ground in an unstoppable fire.
How do you fix this kind of problem?
Stop putting out fires, or use controlled burns.
If societies work a lot like forests, then enforced stability is a bad thing and will lead to big problems.
[4-Jan-2021] The Minsky Moment: Why Stability Leads To Panic And What To Do About It
"Hyman Minsky was an economist at Washington University in St. Louis from 1965 to 1990. He proposed a theory he labeled the financial instability hypothesis, which holds that the economy creates its own bubbles and crashes. The gist of his theory is that stable economies sow the seeds of their own destruction because stability, seeming safe, encourages people to take risks. That risk-taking creates financial instability that eventually results in panic and crisis."
Shemitah and Jubilee Years
The Shemitah and Jubilee years are the equivalent of controlled burns for societies. On the flip side, failure to implement the Shemitah and Jubilee years means a society will eventually run into all kinds of problems before it hits a depression and/or big war. Notice how the West, Japan, Russia and China are all kind of in the same boat with an accumulation of problems?
The secret to a stable economy is automatic debt release at timed intervals. This helps to shut down the conditions for large crashes. The Shemitah and Jubilee years serve this function. The Shemitah coming every seven years and the Jubilee coming in the year following seven Shemitahs, 49 + 1 = 50 years.
What are the Shemitah and Jubilee years?
The Shemitah year is a year where the land rests and debt is released at the end of the year. Notice what happens if the Israelis fail at this:
" I will scatter you among the nations, and keep the sword drawn against you. Your land will remain desolate, and your cities in ruins. Then, as long as the land is desolate and you are in your enemies' land, the land will enjoy its sabbaths. The land will rest and enjoy its sabbatical years. Thus, as long as it is desolate, [the land] will enjoy the sabbatical rest that you would not give it when you lived there." (Leviticus 26:33-35)
Pretty harsh penalty for failing to follow the Shemitahs. That's because they are important. However, their importance is not obvious.
When are the Shemitah years? Here are a few:
- 5775 (25 Sept 2014 - 13 Sept 2015)
- 5782 (7 Sept 2021 - 25 Sept 2022)
- 5789 (21 Sept 2028 - 9 Sept 2029)
calendar - When is the next shmita year (as of 5772)? - Mi Yodeya
The year 5782 on the Jewish calendar (Sept. 7, 2021–Sept. 26, 2022) will be the next Sabbatical year."
Source: https://www.chabad.org/library/article_cdo/aid/538797/jewish/When-is-the-next-Sabbatical-year.htm
The Jubilee year always follows 7 Shemitahs. No plucking it out and plopping it down somewhere else.
Here is a long explanation of the Year of Jubilee in the Bible:
Leviticus 25:8-55 ESV - The Year of Jubilee - Bible Gateway
When is the next Jubilee year?
Year 5776 is the first year of the counting of the 50. Source:
Last Shemitah year before the Jubilee count begins = 5776 - 1 = 5775
In order to project Jubilee years, one must start at the last Shemitah year.
1 Jubilee = 5775 + 1x49 + 1 = 5825
2 Jubilees = 5775 + 2x49 + 1 = 5874
3 Jubilees = 5775 + 3x49 + 1 = 5923
4 Jubilees = 5775 + 4x49 + 1 = 5972
What would happen if you put out all fires in a forest for 1,000 years?
You should see a regular pattern where the forest gets wiped out at a set interval, maybe every 90 to 110 years.
In America, we see the same pattern. America hits a major crisis about 60 to 80 years after the last big crisis. A major crisis always includes a big war. We are now over 75 years since the last big crisis of World War 2.
The cycles of crisis in America are laid out in a book called the Fourth Turning which is based on demographics.
Neil Howe On The Fourth Turning: How Bad Will It Get, How Long Will It Last & What Comes Next? (PT1) - YouTube
