I find it silly the arrogance over the statements about what Iran does and does not have militarily. The fact is, a lot of countries have secret weapons programs and weapons. We thought that Saddam had WMD, but he didn't it appears. That can work both ways. In fact, it is more likely to work the other way. We can think they don't have something and they can have it.
As a result of accidents, some 51 nuclear warheads were lost into sea (44 Soviet and 7 U.S. However, at least one Soviet warhead was recovered). Also, seven nuclear reactors (5 Soviet and 2 U.S.) from three Soviet and two U.S. nuclear-powered submarines have been lost at sea due to accidents. Another 19 nuclear reactors from nuclear-powered vessels have been deliberately dumped at sea (18 Soviet and 1 U.S.).
A U.S. Air Force B-47 bomber carrying two capsules of nuclear materials for nuclear bombs, en route from MacDill AFB, Florida, to Europe, failed to meet its aerial refueling plane over the Mediterranean Sea. An extensive search failed to locate any traces of the missing aircraft or crew.
http://archive.greenpeace.org/comms/nukes/ctbt/read3.html
The fact is, the world is oozing with nuclear materials as a result of the Cold war. It is in the ground just waiting to be picked up. Iran has a mine, Iran has centrifuges. There are accidents where nuclear material is lost and not recovered. A country with nuclear weapons spread out all over the place broke into about 20 countries recently (anyone, know what I am talking about?).
known stock-piles
United States
Russia
China
France
Israel*
United Kingdom
India**
Pakistan**
North Korea***
TOTAL
http://encarta.msn.com/column_nukes_tamimhome/Whosgotnukes.html
9 countries have them. Including, it seems, North Korea which is known for its extensive missiles trade with Iran.
Step by step, Iran is mastering the art of missile production. With help from North Korea, Iran has learned to build its own version of the Soviet Scud-B missile, which can deliver nuclear or chemical warheads up to 300 kilometers, and may soon begin producing the more powerful Scud-C, which can fly up to 600 kilometers. If Iran continues on its present course, it could field a missile capable of reaching Israel within the next few years.
North Korea is Iran's primary source of missile technology. Since 1985, Pyongyang has sold Tehran hundreds of Scud missiles and the factories to build them. Twice in the past four years, the U.S. State Department has penalized North Korean exporters and the Iranian buyers by imposing trade sanctions.
The world is at a crossroads. 60 year old technology has the potential to be involved in conflicts with casualties never before seen. All it takes is a determined group to spark the use of nuclear weapons on a large scale. And if people think that people aren't crazy enough to use them - think again. The U.S. has used them. People need to remember that there are many people who care not for this life, but only for the percieved next eternal life. Castro said that he would have supported using nuclear weapons from their bases in the event of an American invasion during the Cuban-missile crisis with full knowledge that it could lead to the countries destruction. Glitches in satellite technology had made it appear that nuclear weapons were being launched. This period is more dangerous than the cold war. A comprehensive all-encompassing strategy to avert disaster in the post-Cold War nuclear age needs to be attempted at least. Bush is the only one who has attempted it (and he seems to have failed). I don't really blame him for trying and failing. The situation looks bad.
Would Iran nuke Isreal. It could. I hear people use the "nuke them" attitude in the U.S. far too often. I think that large amounts of people don't have the neccesary respect for human life and knowledge of the weapons potential destruction to be averse to the idea. Plus, nuking Israel might not lead to Iran's destruction. Israel is small, thus meaning that a nuke or several covertly placed could wipe them out before a response can be made. Is the U.S. going to nuke back for Israel (risk nuclear escalation)? You know, the whole, we nuke you, you nuke back harder, we nuke back hardest idea?
The middle east is a complex place. The only thing that is certain is uncertainty. That being said, Iran probably does not have nukes. They probably are not willing to preemptively use them if they have them unless attacked directly. They are probably not going to do it on Aug. 22 if they are willing and have access to nuke/s.