2023 smashes record for world’s hottest year by huge margin

[Chesterton]

Anyone who says that is wrong. Local weather may correlate with global climate patterns, but reducing that to "weather is climate" is incorrect.

Also important: climate affects local weather. Changes in the global average temperature modify long-standing large-scale weather patterns (i.e. the jet stream). This can result in large variations in local weather as, for example, cold arctic air that historically stayed in Canada gets blown down into the Great Plains and Texas.

I don't know. Sounds like you may be contradicting yourself. Almost sounds like "chocolate isn't chocolate cake, but chocolate affects chocolate cake".

 

[Chesterton]

Nope, that was global warming as well, which produces extremes of temperature in both directions,

But here is a question for you: why do you think global warming has become a religious issue? Why do some Christians see AGW as a threat to their faith rather than a problem for all of us to solve?

I've never heard of global warming being a religious issue. That's news to me. If some Christians make it way you'd have to ask them.

 

[Chesterton]

Your unprecedented low temps were predicted - the model predicted large temperature swings, not just in one direction.

Seems a waste of money to pay a team of scientists to tell us that. Any farmer can tell you there have been, and will be, large temperature swings.

 

[BCP1928]

Because the mainstream (Pop or aka 'false') Christians are promoting an indulgent lifestyle that is directly responsible for increased greenhouse emissions.

They erroneously believe that God wants them to have such lifestyles when Jesus Christ in the Bible keeps preaching about restraint.

Other religions teaches restraint. The actual teachings of Jesus in the Bible also preaches restraint (unlike the preaching of mainstream (false) Christianity). Scientists are also telling about restraint.

The proof of global warming will force the mainstream (false) Christians to revise their doctrine of indulgence which is essentially admittance of a mistake. A very big one.

Wait, what? That assumes that anthropogenic global warming is actually happening. The general right-wing Christian theme in this forum is that global warming is not happening, or at least is not contributed to by human activity and that mainstream Christians who support action against global warming are apostate.

 

[o_mlly]

Rapid reduction in fossil fuel burning urgently needed to preserve liveable conditions, say scientists, as climate damage deepens.

2023 smashes record for world’s hottest year by huge margin​

Rapid reduction in fossil fuel burning urgently needed to preserve liveable conditions, say scientists, as climate damage deepens

2023 “smashed” the record for the hottest year by a huge margin, providing “dramatic testimony” of how much warmer and more dangerous today’s climate is from the cooler one in which human civilisation developed.
The planet was 1.48C hotter in 2023 compared with the period before the mass burning of fossil fuels ignited the climate crisis. The figure is very close to the 1.5C temperature target set by countries in Paris in 2015
Guardian January 9th 2024

I think we need to take this seriously. We are on the edge.

From the article:

"The long-term warming trend is unquestionably being driven by human activities - mainly from burning fossil fuels, which releases planet-warming gases like carbon dioxide." ​

From the reportedly supporting article:

"Burning fossil fuels and chopping down trees lead to the release of this greenhouse gas. Both activities exploded after the 19th Century, so it's unsurprising that atmospheric CO2 increased over the same period."​

Logical error: correlation does not imply causation.

For instance, another human activity, ie., procreation, correlates well with increased CO2. The estimated population of the planet in 1850 is 1.2 billion. The 2023 population estimate is 8.1 billion or nearly a 4-fold increase. Unfortunately, we don't count animal population but it's fair to assume an increase in their numbers as well. If it breathes and defecates then it adds "planet-warming gases". There may be others causes as well such as increased volcanic activity. Science should not stop investigating when the data collected supports a biased narrative.

I'm not disputing the facts but only the "unmistakenly" claim that fossil fuel burning is the main cause of global warming.

My home heating bill also correlates well with the CO2 increase data. So, global warming maybe a plus for me. And if the value of my property increases because it is now "beachfront ocean-view", I won't complain.

 

[DaisyDay]

Seems a waste of money to pay a team of scientists to tell us that. Any farmer can tell you there have been, and will be, large temperature swings.

You already know that weather is local and immediate while climate is far longer ranging. Ask your farmer if they have noticed long term changes in zone. Your farmer probably appreciates having a team of scientists informing him about what to expect for long term planning.

 

[essentialsaltes]

From the article:

"The long-term warming trend is unquestionably being driven by human activities - mainly from burning fossil fuels, which releases planet-warming gases like carbon dioxide." ​

From the reportedly supporting article:

"Burning fossil fuels and chopping down trees lead to the release of this greenhouse gas. Both activities exploded after the 19th Century, so it's unsurprising that atmospheric CO2 increased over the same period."​

Logical error: correlation does not imply causation.

You can see the causation here: lead to the release of this greenhouse gas

Burning (i.e. oxidizing) carbon based molecules creates carbon dioxide. This is causative.

For instance, another human activity, ie., procreation, correlates well with increased CO2.

Procreating produces infants, not carbon dioxide.

I'm not disputing the facts but only the "unmistakenly" claim that fossil fuel burning is the main cause of global warming.

The physics of the greenhouse effect is well established. Climate scientists have assessed lots of different factors that affect average global temperatures. Anthropogenic causes like fossil fuel burning are the largest contributor to the observed warming.

 

[RocksInMyHead]

I don't know. Sounds like you may be contradicting yourself.

How so? "Climate" represents an average of conditions measured across an area over time (i.e. a Mediterranean climate signifies a region with warm, dry summers and cool, wet winters), while "weather" is a description of the conditions at a particular location and a particular time (i.e. "What's the weather like?" "It's snowing now.").

If one location measures 20 degrees colder than normal, but ten other locations measure twenty degrees warmer than normal, the average temperature for those locations is going to show that the climate is getting warmer. Ergo, climate does not necessarily line up with local weather ("weather is not climate"). The fact that global changes to climate can modify local weather by changing established weather patterns doesn't contradict this. The mechanisms by which this happens are not direct, nor are they instant. For example, as the global average air temperature gets warmer, so does the average ocean temperature. As the ocean temperature changes, currents shift. As currents shift, so do patterns of air movement. And as the patterns of air movement shift and change in strength, we see changes in local weather. Sometimes those local changes line up with global climate trends, but other times they don't. So climate affects weather, but weather is not climate.

Almost sounds like "chocolate isn't chocolate cake, but chocolate affects chocolate cake".

Not contradictory. Chocolate is not chocolate cake - chocolate is an ingredient in chocolate cake (it affects it). That's not a really good analogy for the relationship between weather and climate though.

 

[BCP1928]

From the article:

"The long-term warming trend is unquestionably being driven by human activities - mainly from burning fossil fuels, which releases planet-warming gases like carbon dioxide." ​

From the reportedly supporting article:

"Burning fossil fuels and chopping down trees lead to the release of this greenhouse gas. Both activities exploded after the 19th Century, so it's unsurprising that atmospheric CO2 increased over the same period."​

Logical error: correlation does not imply causation.

If that was the only evidence you might have a point. But what's so bad about cutting back fossil fuel use? I can see why energy companies might not want to, but what I don't understand why so many Christians are on board with them.

 

[Belk]

From the article:

"The long-term warming trend is unquestionably being driven by human activities - mainly from burning fossil fuels, which releases planet-warming gases like carbon dioxide." ​

From the reportedly supporting article:

"Burning fossil fuels and chopping down trees lead to the release of this greenhouse gas. Both activities exploded after the 19th Century, so it's unsurprising that atmospheric CO2 increased over the same period."​

Logical error: correlation does not imply causation.

For instance, another human activity, ie., procreation, correlates well with increased CO2. The estimated population of the planet in 1850 is 1.2 billion. The 2023 population estimate is 8.1 billion or nearly a 4-fold increase. Unfortunately, we don't count animal population but it's fair to assume an increase in their numbers as well. If it breathes and defecates then it adds "planet-warming gases". There may be others causes as well such as increased volcanic activity. Science should not stop investigating when the data collected supports a biased narrative.

I'm not disputing the facts but only the "unmistakenly" claim that fossil fuel burning is the main cause of global warming.

My home heating bill also correlates well with the CO2 increase data. So, global warming maybe a plus for me. And if the value of my property increases because it is now "beachfront ocean-view", I won't complain.

Correlation does imply causation. I believe what you meant was correlation does not equal causation.

However they are not starting the burning fossil fuels correlats with increased CO2, they are directly stating that burning fossil fuel produces CO2.

 

[Whyayeman]

Well, I live on the same globe as you. Presumably.

Well, maybe. But you weren't referring to the planet when you said 'where I live'.

Climate heating over the earth as a whole is real.

 

[Gene2memE]

Something that seems disingenuous is like, just two years ago, where I live we had unprecedented low temperatures for unprecedented duration.

Global warming is, as indicated by the name, a global phenomenon. It covers the average temperature for the entire word. It does not preclude record temperature lows, at a local or even regional level.

You might have heard of it in the news; it resulted in many deaths and much property damage. If I mention that, people will say "weather is not climate". But if we have a hot spell, then "weather is climate".

Global climate influences weather in aggregate. Even local weather.

A generally warmer climate results in a greater likelihood of local high temperature records being set. Both in terms of peak temperature and numbers of days spent above the local average. It will also produce greater variability in rainfall levels - both record lows AND record highs.

If we want to measure the change in climate by anecdote, here's one for you: the weather station for the nearest country town sits less than 5 km from my family's farm. The annual average temperature for that station has not been under the 1961 to 1990 mean since 1998. Put another way, it has been more than two decades since a year of below average temperature was recorded there.

It has also been more than 65 years since a new record annual temperature low was set at that station. It has been less than 2 years since a new record high temperature was set. New annual record highs have been set in 11 of the past 23 years.

 

[o_mlly]

You can see the causation here: lead to the release of this greenhouse gas

The causation claimed but not demonstrated is that the cause of global warming is "mainly from burning fossil fuels".

Procreating produces infants, not carbon dioxide.

Do human beings breath and defecate? Does a 4-fold increase in human beings contribute to greenhouse gases?

The physics of the greenhouse effect is well established. Climate scientists have assessed lots of different factors that affect average global temperatures. Anthropogenic causes like fossil fuel burning are the largest contributor to the observed warming.

That is the claim but remains undemonstrated.

If that was the only evidence you might have a point.

? That's the problem but it is not mine. I'm looking for some evidence that the cause of global warming is "mainly from burning fossil fuels".

But what's so bad about cutting back fossil fuel use? I can see why energy companies might not want to, but what I don't understand why so many Christians are on board with them.

Do you not see that aggressively cutting back fossil fuel use w/o a viable alternative would cause human suffering?

Correlation does imply causation. I believe what you meant was correlation does not equal causation.

Nope.

However they are not starting the burning fossil fuels correlats with increased CO2, they are directly stating that burning fossil fuel produces CO2.

No. The citation claims that the cause of global warming is "mainly from burning fossil fuels".

 

[Whyayeman]

No. The citation claims that the cause of global warming is "mainly from burning fossil fuels".

Do you seriously doubt this? If so, you should be able to offer some reasons?

 

[essentialsaltes]

That is the claim but remains undemonstrated.

It may not have been contained in the OP, but it has been demonstrated.

 

[o_mlly]

Do you seriously doubt this? If so, you should be able to offer some reasons?

That's not the way science works.

It may not have been contained in the OP, but it has been demonstrated.

Show my the evidence.

 

[essentialsaltes]

Show my the evidence.

There's a link to the 5th IPCC report here.

And the 6th IPCC report will provide additional (and more recent) details of its review of the evidence that led to the conclusion that "Human activities, principally through emissions of greenhouse gases, have unequivocally caused global warming, with global surface temperature reaching 1.1°C above 1850–1900 in 2011–2020."

I would point in particular to sections 1.3.3 and 1.3.4.

Lines of Evidence: Identifying Natural and Human Drivers​

Lines of Evidence: Understanding and Attributing Climate Change​

 

[o_mlly]

"Human activities, principally through emissions of greenhouse gases ...

Yes, I agree that human activities increase GHG emissions.

What I don't see in the report is evidence that human burning of fossil fuels is the primary cause. Do you have a link to any peer reviews of the report?

 

[RocksInMyHead]

What I don't see in the report is evidence that human burning of fossil fuels is the primary cause. Do you have a link to any peer reviews of the report?

The report is a summary, and it summarizes the severity of the human impact - with citations and references - in section 1.3.4. I would suggest reading that section as well as the referenced studies and reports. Since it's been long-established that the burning of fossil fuels is the prime anthropogenic contribution to climate change, you might have to go several layers deep into the citations to find one that explicitly states that.

 

[o_mlly]

The report is a summary, and it summarizes the severity of the human impact - with citations and references - in section 1.3.4. I would suggest reading that section as well as the referenced studies and reports. Since it's been long-established that the burning of fossil fuels is the prime anthropogenic contribution to climate change, you might have to go several layers deep into the citations to find one that explicitly states that.

I don't see in 1.3.4 the evidence that human burning of fossil fuels is the primary cause of global warming. Kindly copy/paste the relevant sentences.