Presidential Race 2016 Predictions

Albion

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I disagree with the premise that the country has been on a downward spiral for the last 7-8 years.
If you're serious about that--discounting the abundant evidence in almost every aspect of our nation's life--I can't imagine that there's much reason for me to read further into your rather long post. Thanks for your interest nonetheless; I know that you put a lot of effort into your messages. :wave:
 
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Tallguy88

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I look forward to the pending claims of Bush being a RINO from the Usual Suspects to handwave that inconvenient nugget.
He's always been wishy washy in his conservatism. It's why Ronald Reagan beat him in the primaries. He was supposed to be Reagan's 3rd term, but was quite a let down in that regard.

Great guy personally. War hero too. But mediocre president.
 
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Armoured

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He's always been wishy washy in his conservatism. It's why Ronald Reagan beat him in the primaries. He was supposed to be Reagan's 3rd term, but was quite a let down in that regard.

Great guy personally. War hero too. But mediocre president.
Thank you for obliging me.
 
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Tallguy88

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Thank you for obliging me.
I didn't call him a RINO. More like a CINO (c for conservative). A lot of establishment Republicans are CINOs. It's why we've been sweeping them away for true conservatives in the primaries since about 2010.

I'd have said the same thing before learning he endorsed Clinton. In fact, I didn't know that until I read this thread. I did give him props for being a good guy.
 
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Tallguy88

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I look forward to the pending claims of Bush being a RINO from the Usual Suspects to handwave that inconvenient nugget.

Thank you for obliging me.
Furthermore, I'm confused why you seem to think it's indicative of anything other than internal party politics that people would disagree with the actions of a former prominent Republican? It's almost as if you think it shows dishonesty on the part of those disagreeing, rather than showing them reiterating their stated principles and calling out one of their own who "crossed the line", so to speak. Bush Sr isn't some kind of paragon of the Republican Party. Reagan is the closest thing in modern times and even he had some unfortunate liberal tendencies.

Also, who or what are the "usual suspects"?
 
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Vicomte13

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The problem with the Democrats is that they were, historically, the party of slavery and the Confederacy, then the party of Jim Crow. Then they went hard-over into military imperialism (Truman in Korea and LBJ in Vietnam).

The problem with the Republicans is that, having freed the slaves in the Civil War, they immediately became the party of crony capitalism under Ulysses S. Grant, and have stayed there ever since. So, bare legal equality have been proclaimed by them, they have fought tooth and nail to block any sort of wealth redistribution to address the overhang of slavery and segregation, and the harsh realities of urban industrial life.

The Democrats never really admitted their flaws, they simply ignore they ever had them and moved straight to an aggressive form of populist socialism (and aim to import a new electorate from abroad, because they can't win with the people we've got).

Republicans are like the Bourbons: they never forget anything and never learn anything.

So we have careened from revolting injustice to revolting injustice, paid it all forward with the economic proceeds of imperialism and exploitation and then, when those easy ways were gone, ran up the credit card. Now we're grossly indebted, with absolutely no way clear proposed by either party (because their beliefs preclude doing any of the things that would actually right the ship), mired deeply in endless unwinnable wars, and face burgeoning internal violence.

There actually are ways out, but neither party talks about those. Instead, they pander to their power bases.

It's almost pointless to even try to discuss the ways out with any partisan, because most partisan Americans are more devoted to their party and its ideals than they are to their religion (witness the number of pro-choice Catholics and anti-poverty-relief Protestants), and no real out-of-the-box conversation can be had that can lead anywhere. The box is a crab trap, and we're all in it.
 
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LoAmmi

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The problem with the Democrats is that they were, historically, the party of slavery and the Confederacy, then the party of Jim Crow. Then they went hard-over into military imperialism (Truman in Korea and LBJ in Vietnam).

The problem with the Republicans is that, having freed the slaves in the Civil War, they immediately became the party of crony capitalism under Ulysses S. Grant, and have stayed there ever since. So, bare legal equality have been proclaimed by them, they have fought tooth and nail to block any sort of wealth redistribution to address the overhang of slavery and segregation, and the harsh realities of urban industrial life.

The Democrats never really admitted their flaws, they simply ignore they ever had them and moved straight to an aggressive form of populist socialism (and aim to import a new electorate from abroad, because they can't win with the people we've got).

Republicans are like the Bourbons: they never forget anything and never learn anything.

So we have careened from revolting injustice to revolting injustice, paid it all forward with the economic proceeds of imperialism and exploitation and then, when those easy ways were gone, ran up the credit card. Now we're grossly indebted, with absolutely no way clear proposed by either party (because their beliefs preclude doing any of the things that would actually right the ship), mired deeply in endless unwinnable wars, and face burgeoning internal violence.

There actually are ways out, but neither party talks about those. Instead, they pander to their power bases.

It's almost pointless to even try to discuss the ways out with any partisan, because most partisan Americans are more devoted to their party and its ideals than they are to their religion (witness the number of pro-choice Catholics and anti-poverty-relief Protestants), and no real out-of-the-box conversation can be had that can lead anywhere. The box is a crab trap, and we're all in it.


Biggest issue is that people have bought into the idea that any vote for a third party is a vote against their "side" (side being liberal or conservative). I've voted Green Party in several elections if for no other reason than to protest the two parties we have. This is the first year I'm voting for one of them, though it's more against against the other. If we could get a viable third party, just one, we probably could get multiple ones and then people would have more options. Instant runoff voting would also be nice though that'd be really difficult to get done.

My political big points are essentially:

Fix the broken education system, and I'm not talking about common core or whatever. We have more fundamental issues with the way we educate children in this country and because of that we're falling behind in the world. We need more STEM desperately. I actually think the push for industrial jobs is a very short term solution.

Make college more affordable. This comes back to the idea that we need more STEM and we need more educated workers. My company has multiple job openings available but we have trouble finding people qualified.

Ensure a safety net for people while providing real ways to get back on track. I think a massive amount of infrastructure rebuilding would be a great way to help out people who need jobs.

Freedom of speech, religion, and the press are probably my biggest ideals. I want people to have the freedom to live their lives and to practice their faith (or lack thereof) without much in the way of government interference. It's why I have no issue with secular homosexual marriage; who am I to tell two people who they can and can't spend their lives with? I would be furious if someone interfered in my marriage, how can I interfere in theirs?

I have several others but this is what I can come up with in a few minutes.

Neither side fits this (nor do the Green Party) so I'm left with being an advocate for the things I care about.
 
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Tallguy88

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Biggest issue is that people have bought into the idea that any vote for a third party is a vote against their "side" (side being liberal or conservative). I've voted Green Party in several elections if for no other reason than to protest the two parties we have. This is the first year I'm voting for one of them, though it's more against against the other. If we could get a viable third party, just one, we probably could get multiple ones and then people would have more options. Instant runoff voting would also be nice though that'd be really difficult to get done.

My political big points are essentially:

Fix the broken education system, and I'm not talking about common core or whatever. We have more fundamental issues with the way we educate children in this country and because of that we're falling behind in the world. We need more STEM desperately. I actually think the push for industrial jobs is a very short term solution.

Abolish the federal Department of Education and leave education up to the states.

Make college more affordable. This comes back to the idea that we need more STEM and we need more educated workers. My company has multiple job openings available but we have trouble finding people qualified.

We need to stop encouraging the idea that everyone should go to college. Everyone shouldn't go to college. We need more people learning trades like electricians, plumbers, HVAC installation/repair, etc. These are necessary skills that pay big bucks to people who are good at them. And they are always in demand.

Encourage more people to join the military, or seek employment with federal or state agencies. Many good government jobs only require a high school diploma.

The less demand by unqualified and uninterested HS graduates for college who only go because it's what's expected who then drop out after a few semesters, then the lower the tuition will be since there is less overall demand for those services.

Ensure a safety net for people while providing real ways to get back on track. I think a massive amount of infrastructure rebuilding would be a great way to help out people who need jobs.

Yep. We need real shovel ready jobs. Bring back the CCC and the WPA.

Freedom of speech, religion, and the press are probably my biggest ideals. I want people to have the freedom to live their lives and to practice their faith (or lack thereof) without much in the way of government interference. It's why I have no issue with secular homosexual marriage; who am I to tell two people who they can and can't spend their lives with? I would be furious if someone interfered in my marriage, how can I interfere in theirs?

I have several others but this is what I can come up with in a few minutes.

Neither side fits this (nor do the Green Party) so I'm left with being an advocate for the things I care about.
Good. Keep "wasting" your vote on 3rd parties. If everyone did that, then we'd have real change.

#feelthejohnson
 
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LoAmmi

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Abolish the federal Department of Education and leave education up to the states.

I disagree 100%. We need a federal standard for education not allowing a bunch of idiots to vote in a state to not teach current science or teach a "different" history. What we need is real reform. I probably couldn't disagree more with your assessment here.

I'm sorry, but I wouldn't want a child going to school being taught that Noah's Flood is a scientific event or that creationism is on par scientifically with natural theories.


We need to stop encouraging the idea that everyone should go to college. Everyone shouldn't go to college. We need more people learning trades like electricians, plumbers, HVAC installation/repair, etc. These are necessary skills that pay big bucks to people who are good at them. And they are always in demand.
Are they? You sure? I know plenty of people with those skills who are unemployed. My father was a pipe fitter who went to a trade school and spent over a year and a half unemployed even though those. We NEED people with STEM. If we want to do that through trade schools, fine, but college is probably the best place for true STEM training.
Encourage more people to join the military, or seek employment with federal or state agencies. Many good government jobs only require a high school diploma.

The less demand by unqualified and uninterested HS graduates for college who only go because it's what's expected who then drop out after a few semesters, then the lower the tuition will be since there is less overall demand for those services.
I would never discourage higher education. Ever. Not everybody is capable, but it is important.
 
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Tallguy88

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I disagree 100%. We need a federal standard for education not allowing a bunch of idiots to vote in a state to not teach current science or teach a "different" history. What we need is real reform. I probably couldn't disagree more with your assessment here.

I'm sorry, but I wouldn't want a child going to school being taught that Noah's Flood is a scientific event or that creationism is on par scientifically with natural theories.

It's a lot easier to reform a problem at the state level than the federal level. The best government is the one closest to the people. Since states are sovereign, then they shouldn't be unconstitutionally mandated to implement terrible federal programs like NCLB.

Are they? You sure? I know plenty of people with those skills who are unemployed. My father was a pipe fitter who went to a trade school and spent over a year and a half unemployed even though those. We NEED people with STEM. If we want to do that through trade schools, fine, but college is probably the best place for true STEM training.

I would never discourage higher education. Ever. Not everybody is capable, but it is important.

A degree is no guarantee of a job either. My best friend has a bachelor's degree and has worked at Walmart for almost a decade. Never once been able to put that degree to any use.

Those loans that you can't bankrupt will be with you till you die or pay them off, regardless of whether that degree gets you anything or not. That's the biggest problem.

Either way, not everyone has the smarts or temperament for college. I have the smarts but not the temperament. I eeked a degree out, but it hasn't done me a lot of good and I'm still paying for it. Could have gotten my current job without it.
 
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LoAmmi

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It's a lot easier to reform a problem at the state level than the federal level. The best government is the one closest to the people. Since states are sovereign, then they shouldn't be unconstitutionally mandated to implement terrible federal programs like NCLB.

You're a lot more into state sovereignty than I am. I view it as a leftover from a time when we did not have the rapid communication we have today or the interconnected world we have today. It made sense to do it when it could take weeks to get an answer on something, now it takes seconds.
 
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Fantine

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Tallguy, you live in an area of the country whose states are usually ranked anywhere between #45 and 50 in educational quality.

But imagine, if you will, how completely awful your state's schools might be if they didn't have the federal government prodding them to develop minimal standards.

It seems as though some southern states are so busy building prisons that are managed by private companies that they don't have the interest in funding the school programs that could keep young people out of prison sooner.
 
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s_gunter

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It seems as though some southern states are so busy building prisons that are managed by private companies that they don't have the interest in funding the school programs that could keep young people out of prison sooner.

I partly agree with that. You're right about the building of prisons instead of fully funding schools. Prisons are indeed a cash cow in the south, and the school-to-prison-pipeline is in full effect, creating even more $$$ for the state as profit. Where I disagree is that it's ONLY about prisons and that it's about keeping young people out of prison. Nope. A lot of that federal money is also spent on the military complex, whether state or federal. We'd much rather spend money on unnecessary equipment for the National Guard than for schools. We'd rather spend money giving local police departments military-type (or, even military overstock) equipment, and spending the money to train police officers to act like soldiers and/or MPs, which in turn feeds the school to prison pipeline. After all, we gotta keep that $$$ flowing...
 
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Genersis

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I was about to post my one month to go prediction, but it seems a bit pointless after that rather nauseating audio of Trump has surfaced. Personally, I think it is likely not a coincidence, but I wonder if perhaps deployed a tad early.

If the impact is as damaging as I feel it could be, Trump might not even be the GOP candidate on election day.
Does Pence become their nominee?
Regardless, the race may become competitive again(or even Republican leaning) if Pence/whomever does well in future debates.
 
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Fantine

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Well, it's not the October surprise, that's for sure. Despite his incomplete and bizarre medical records and utter refusal to show his tax returns, the evidence that investigative reporters have gathered so far is consistent with what we've learned today--and anything we are likely to learn by November.

Washington Post, NY Times, and Newsweek reporters deserve the Pulitzer this year for trying to save American voters from the folly of their own bad judgment.

Trump's name will be on most state ballots regardless of whether he leaves the ticket. And Pence, despite his calm, serious demeanor, was an empty suit at the last debate.
 
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Fish and Bread

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Personally, I think it is likely not a coincidence, but I wonder if perhaps deployed a tad early.

Early voting has already or will soon be starting in some states. This has become a bigger thing over the years than it used to be. Most voters still vote on election day, but in swing states where the margin may be very close, early voting is not an insignificant factor these days and, if you were going to release an "October surprise", if you waited until late October, a lot of votes would already have been cast with voters unable to take them back no matter how much they might regret them in the wake of whatever revelations might take place between when they cast the ballot and election day for the non-early voters.

In any event, I don't think this tape of Trump is a political trick. It came from one of those Hollywood shows, where the only political agenda they have is kissing up to celebrities.

On the other hand, I do think today's release of Clinton's speeches to Wall Street was absolutely released intentionally to influence the election- by Russia. I think people should be a lot more worried that an authoritarian opponent of human rights who invades and occupies countries and jails political dissents while shuttering media outlets, Vladimir Putin, is trying to get Trump elected by illegally hacking US government communications and the records of our political parties (Well, one political party), and is slowly releasing them to try to get his puppet, Donald Trump, who's campaign manager worked on behalf of Putin's former puppet leader in the Ukraine and was paid in rubles, elected.

I mean, this whole thing with the Russian hacking and Trump is like the Manchurian Candidate and Watergate all rolled up into one. People should be very concerned that the Russians are interfering in our elections to try to elect Trump.

In any event, Trump's comments speak for themselves. His attempt to say that Bill Clinton makes comments like that, too, lacks a) proof and b) relevancy. There's no audio of Bill saying anything like that, and, if there were, it wouldn't matter, because Bill isn't the one running for President. Hillary is the Clinton running against Trump.

There is a clear choice in this election. Its between a capable experienced level-headed mature leader in Clinton and an under-qualified fascist demagogue in Trump. People know what the right thing to do is here. They may not like Clinton, but she'll be a decent President, she's a normal candidate. Trump is pure evil and is a step towards totalitarianism- he is a uniquely bad candidate in the history of this country.

I'm with Hillary.
 
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Genersis

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Hmm, yes I should of remembered about early ballots.
I also wonder if the release was timed so the story could sink in before the Sunday debate.

Russia is very good at influencing politics. They fund our Conservative Party and UKIP because of their Eurosceptisim, and as they've probably been the most influential parties of the last decade, along with actually successfully campaigning for us to leave the EU; it's certainly paid off for them.

I think it should be noted that even if Clinton wins this election, the Republicans will be even more likely to win the next one(in historical terms, they should be winning this one). I worry if they may be able to win no matter how bad their candidate is.
 
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Fantine

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I'm in the process of traveling home from a business conference and haven't kept up with the news that much, but I don't think that there were any terrible revelations in the Hillary tapes.

She wants to end the gun show loophole? That's no secret, and anyone with a grain of common sense realizes it's the right thing to do.

In her speeches to Wall Street, she didn't go as far as Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren in criticizing them, but she did push accountability and some change.

If that's all they've got, I'm not worried, but I am a little worried about Russia's apparent collaboration with wikileaks--which the U.S. has apparently verified.
 
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While the debate isn't over yet, the jist so far seems to be that both candidates are coming off poorly due to mud slinging.

Clinton probably has more soft support to lose in this capacity.
I wonder if this will produce a slight bump for Trump...

It should be noted, I'm not watching the debate, I am monitoring the live reactions to it instead.
 
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