Presidential Race 2016 Predictions

[Genersis]

I'm interested to hear your take on Aussie politics.

I'm not overly familiar with it. Most of my familiarity with US politics is due to hanging out on this site and the internet being pretty US-centric.
First Dog on the Moon is probably where I hear the most things about Aussie politics...he is a political cartoonist, so yeah...I don't know many specifics.

I don't think the coalition should of obtained a majority in the recent election and were quite lucky that the electoral system favoured them.
It's safe to say you're overdue a change in government.

 

[Godlovesmetwo]

I don't think the coalition should of obtained a majority in the recent election and were quite lucky that the electoral system favoured them.

that's impressive enough.

 

[Genersis]

This could be my last prediction, if polls stay mostly stagnant, as they are now(with a very slight drift in Trump's favour).

Uncertainty Levels

Very High:
ME2(Under polled, Prediction based on historical polling and gut, could go either way)100%
OH(Prediction based on historical polling and gut, could go either way)100%

High:
NE2(Under polled)90%
AZ(Erratic polling)90%

Moderate:
IA 80%
NC 80%
UT(Hard to predict McMullin's impact)76%

Low:
NV 66%
FL 60%

Electoral Votes:

Clinton
Min: 272
Max: 359

Trump
Min: 173
Max: 266

Would Rather have More Polling Data for:
AZ
ME2
NE2


It should be noted that the predictions in which I have the least confidence in tend to be for Trump leaning states.
I have considered colouring NV, NC and FL as darker blue mostly safe states...so there's not much good news for Trump as far as swing-able states go.

NH and CO still seem far beyond Trump's grasp, it's difficult to see any chance of a Trump victory without unprecedented polling errors and/or a huge last minute swing in his favour.

 

[Genersis]

Well, with Clinton's emails becoming news again, it's likely her polling will also suffer again.

Will probably cost Clinton North Carolina, if not the election altogether depending on the impact.

 

[tadoflamb]

In a mock election, 53% of Arizona children between 4th and 12th grade voted for Clinton.

 

[s_gunter]

Well, with Clinton's emails becoming news again, it's likely her polling will also suffer again.

Will probably cost Clinton North Carolina, if not the election altogether depending on the impact.

Not so fast...

Rght now (10:59am, 10/29/2016), Comey's not looking too good. He's looking like a political hack instead of Director of the FBI. When the Director of the FBI looks more like a political hack, it tends to take away his credibility. He's attempting to influence the election, and it's absolutely clear with this latest announcement which side he's on, since the fallout clearly favors the GOP/TP. He's not a fair investigator at all. (But, we already knew that since C. Rice and C. Powell weren't sitting in the same hot-seat Hillary was for doing the exact same thing.)

 

[Genersis]

In a mock election, 53% of Arizona children between 4th and 12th grade voted for Clinton.

Age tends to correlate with likelihood to vote.
While I'm unaware of the turnout for children, presumably those children will be very unlikely to vote when the November the 8th rolls around.

 

[Genersis]

Not so fast...

Rght now (10:59am, 10/29/2016), Comey's not looking too good. He's looking like a political hack instead of Director of the FBI. When the Director of the FBI looks more like a political hack, it tends to take away his credibility. He's attempting to influence the election, and it's absolutely clear with this latest announcement which side he's on, since the fallout clearly favors the GOP/TP. He's not a fair investigator at all. (But, we already knew that since C. Rice and C. Powell weren't sitting in the same hot-seat Hillary was for doing the exact same thing.)

Well, I believe he's probably more likely to be listened to than Clinton. Besides, all he needs to do is create doubt for soft Clinton voters, and this will probably suffice.

Regardless, in five to seven days polling figures should reflect some of the impact. After which I will probably make a new prediction.

 

[s_gunter]

Well, I believe he's probably more likely to be listened to than Clinton. Besides, all he needs to do is create doubt for soft Clinton voters, and this will probably suffice.

Regardless, in five to seven days polling figures should reflect some of the impact. After which I will probably make a new prediction.

Sounds an awful lot like admitting that Comey is indeed attempting to influence the election, which is NOT his job as Director of the FBI. It might even be a crime. It also sounds like you hope he succeeds, and are banking on/hoping that the electorate is too ignorant to notice.

 

[Genersis]

Sounds an awful lot like admitting that Comey is indeed attempting to influence the election, which is NOT his job as Director of the FBI. It might even be a crime. It also sounds like you hope he succeeds, and are banking on/hoping that the electorate is too ignorant to notice.

He probably is. I doubt it's illegal. Though probably frowned upon.

I hope he fails, but people will generally listen when such a high ranking official(that isn't a politician) says such things.
When it comes to something like Trump winning, I think it's best to be cautiously pessimistic. Especially in a political climate where right wing anti-immigrant populism and anti-establishment sentiment is doing so well.

 

[Basil the Great]

Well, I have been predicting a comfortable Clinton win for weeks now. However, the polls have tightened in recent days and with the big October FBI surprise of yesterday, we could now be looking at a very long election night. I cannot predict at this time, but will try and return next weekend to give my prediction. By the way, I have been predicting elections for decades and can usually predict most states accurately.

 

[Fantine]

Well, I guess Comey's move will go far with those who were smearing him just days ago because his brother is an attorney for a firm that does the Clinton Foundation's taxes....just yesterday they were accusing him of receiving millions from the Clinton foundation--LOL!

Now he's back in their corner.

I guess we'll just have to add the Clinton Foundation's payoffs to Comey on to the 91% of what Trump says that's false.

 

[Genersis]

Not sure the Clinton campaign has made the right move in criticising Comey and requesting more info. Might of been better to stay mostly quiet on it, hope it drops out of the news cycle.

Meh.
At this point, what would probably be most useful, is if an/several ex-FBI head(s) came forward and criticised Comey's actions.

 

[Shiloh Raven]

9 days until the presidential elections. Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton have both made it perfectly clear that Native Americans are not one of their priorities or even their concern. Donald Trump has been silent about the violence committed against native water protectors in Standing Rock. He has not made a public statement condemning the violence. He also invests in Energy Transfer Partners, the company behind the Dakota Access Pipeline. Hillary Clinton released a half hearted response, but did not speak out against the construction of DAPL on Sioux tribal land. She also refused to speak to the native youth when they went to her Brooklyn headquarters with a letter asking for her help to stop the violence in Standing Rock. The response of the Clinton campaign to the courageous effort by these native youth was having them escorted out of the building by NYPD.

On the other hand, Senator Bernie Sanders and Dr. Jill Stein have both publicly condemned the violence against the native water protectors in Standing Rock and they have also opposed the Dakota Access Pipeline being aggressively constructed on Sioux tribal lands against the will of the Standing Rock Sioux Nation. They both went to Standing Rock and stood with the native water protectors. They made statements about respecting Native Americans and protecting tribal sovereignty rights.

 

[Genersis]

We have entered what could be called a polling blind spot.
Any event that happens between now and November 8th likely wont be represented in any polling.

Of course, polls will continue to come out, they will just cover last week, and the last couple of polls possibly covering the beginning of this week.

 

[Fantine]

I was listening to a wonderful CD today--"Heartsongs," based on the poetry of the late Mattie Stepanek, who died of muscular dystrophy in 2004. Mattie was a youthful wisdom figure with a vision of peace and love.

I found out about the CD after listening to Bill Gilman on "The Voice." He was a child country singer, and this was one of his albums at the time.

And I thought, if this angel can face the challenges he did and still believe, I can garner the emotional resources to face four years led by a crazed psychopath.

If the polls get too scary, I'm selling every stock in my IRA before election day and reinvesting after the crash. Selling stocks isn't a taxable event in your IRA, and every Nobel economist says that a Trump election would be an unmitigated disaster for the economy.

My husband's IRA is much, much larger than mine, and it's professionally managed, but I think that they will manage to handle it without more than a temporary blip.

Maybe it will increase my faith in God when I realize I have completely lost faith in the judgment and discernment of more than 50% of the country (and where I live, probably 70%....)

God's not crazy, even if some of his followers are.

 

[Godlovesmetwo]

Do the rest of the world a favour. A vote for Clinton is an anti Trump vote.

 

[Genersis]

...
Maybe it will increase my faith in God when I realize I have completely lost faith in the judgment and discernment of more than 50% of the country (and where I live, probably 70%....)

God's not crazy, even if some of his followers are.

To be fair, I strongly suspect that if Trump wins, it will be without the popular vote.
Trump has a good chance of winning as long as he is 2 points behind Clinton. Even at the current 3 points behind Clinton, he may nab the election.

If the race was strictly on popular vote, this race wouldn't even be considered competitive because of Clinton's solid support in populous states.

 

[Genersis]

Waiting for the polls to stabilise before making a final prediction.

Of course, they might not stabilise at all, but it seems the current trend(Trump increase) is slowing; so I'm not sure I should presume its continued impact.

Need to learn about party internal polling.
Anyone here have much info?

 

[Fantine]

I heard tonight that the ABC Washington Post poll has Clinton up by 4 again, so perhaps the shock value of the Comey release just caused a wee bit of temporary insanity among voters.

Especially since we finally learned why Comey made the release 11 days before the election. The reason: his mutinous FBI agents told Rudy Giuliani about the Weiner computer and how Weiner's estranged wife, Huma Abedin, had used it.

Once these mutinous FBI agents spoke to Giuliani, Trump's unfounded beliefs that the election was rigged would have had him tearing the nation from seam to seam if Comey hadn't have made his statement. They should be fired immediately without pensions.

The only rigging of this election is from the Russian-influenced Wikileaks and the fear that they will try to hack our voting machines--as they did in Germany and the Brexit vote.